Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 10.90 | 10.30 | 0.60 |
| Saracens | 6.97 | 5.03 | 1.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.52 | 5.55 | -1.00 |
| Bristol | 4.49 | 3.66 | 0.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.98 | -4.58 | 8.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 3.91 | 6.70 | -2.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.59 | -1.47 | 5.10 |
| Gloucester | -3.11 | 4.13 | -7.20 |
| Harlequins | -6.36 | -3.02 | -3.30 |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | -21.03 | -18.45 | -2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 40 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins | Dec 27 | 43 – 17 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Newcastle Red Bulls | Dec 28 | 36 – 27 | 36.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Saracens | Dec 28 | 21 – 30 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bath vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 28 | 21 – 41 | 19.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 29 | 24 – 10 | 5.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Jan 03 | Bristol | 7.60 |
| 2 | Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Gloucester | Jan 03 | Gloucester | -10.90 |
| 3 | Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs | Jan 04 | Bath | 13.90 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins | Jan 04 | Northampton Saints | 16.90 |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens | Jan 05 | Leicester Tigers | 4.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »