Top 14 Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.37 | 11.56 | 2.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.73 | 4.78 | -0.10 |
| Section Paloise | 4.08 | 2.21 | 1.90 |
| Toulon | 3.14 | 3.49 | -0.40 |
| Clermont | 2.83 | 1.88 | 0.90 |
| Racing 92 | 2.49 | 1.88 | 0.60 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.02 | 1.22 | 0.80 |
| Montpellier | 1.57 | -0.21 | 1.80 |
| Stade Francais | 1.40 | -2.17 | 3.60 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.21 | 0.59 | -0.40 |
| Bayonne | -0.29 | 1.48 | -1.80 |
| Lyon | -1.74 | -0.45 | -1.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.70 | -3.37 | -3.30 |
| Montauban | -15.23 | -10.00 | -5.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 91 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Francais | Dec 28 | 35 – 34 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Dec 28 | 36 – 22 | 7.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 28 | 34 – 19 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Montauban | Dec 28 | 61 – 16 | 22.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | Dec 29 | 35 – 33 | 10.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 29 | 60 – 14 | 17.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 29 | 31 – 16 | 16.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Jan 04 | Bordeaux Begles | 8.70 |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Section Paloise | Jan 04 | Lyon | 0.70 |
| 3 | Montauban vs. Clermont | Jan 04 | Clermont | -11.60 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Bayonne | Jan 04 | Montpellier | 8.40 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique | Jan 04 | Stade Francais | 7.70 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | Jan 04 | Stade Toulousain | -14.60 |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon | Jan 05 | Stade Rochelais | 5.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »