Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 9.85 | 10.30 | -0.40 |
| Saracens | 8.47 | 5.03 | 3.40 |
| Northampton Saints | 7.08 | -1.47 | 8.50 |
| Leicester Tigers | 6.53 | 5.55 | 1.00 |
| Bristol | 4.92 | 3.66 | 1.30 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.68 | -4.58 | 8.30 |
| Sale Sharks | 2.99 | 6.70 | -3.70 |
| Gloucester | -4.03 | 4.13 | -8.20 |
| Harlequins | -10.03 | -3.02 | -7.00 |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | -21.61 | -18.45 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol | Jan 25 | 3 – 8 | 7.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Gloucester vs. Bath | Jan 25 | 26 – 30 | -7.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers | Jan 25 | 7 – 36 | -6.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints | Jan 25 | 29 – 43 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls | Jan 25 | 73 – 14 | 33.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Saracens | Mar 21 | Bath | 8.40 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 22 | Exeter Chiefs | 7.70 |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | Mar 22 | Harlequins | 1.00 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls | Mar 22 | Northampton Saints | 35.70 |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bristol | Mar 23 | Leicester Tigers | 8.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »