Top 14 Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.35 | 11.56 | 2.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.22 | 4.78 | 0.40 |
| Montpellier | 3.59 | -0.21 | 3.80 |
| Section Paloise | 3.58 | 2.21 | 1.40 |
| Clermont | 2.91 | 1.88 | 1.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.73 | 1.22 | 1.50 |
| Stade Francais | 1.41 | -2.17 | 3.60 |
| Toulon | 0.96 | 3.49 | -2.50 |
| Racing 92 | 0.56 | 1.88 | -1.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.40 | 0.59 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | -0.03 | -0.45 | 0.40 |
| Bayonne | -1.65 | 1.48 | -3.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.24 | -3.37 | -1.90 |
| Montauban | -15.89 | -10.00 | -5.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 112 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Clermont | Feb 01 | 28 – 23 | 3.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Montauban vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 01 | 16 – 31 | -14.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Stade Francais | Feb 01 | 44 – 7 | 6.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 01 | 37 – 31 | 13.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon | Feb 01 | 24 – 44 | 11.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne | Feb 01 | 31 – 10 | 22.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Toulon | Feb 02 | 32 – 12 | 8.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 15 | Bordeaux Begles | 11.30 |
| 2 | Bayonne vs. Racing 92 | Feb 15 | Bayonne | 4.30 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Montauban | Feb 15 | Lyon | 22.40 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier | Feb 15 | Stade Rochelais | 5.60 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Feb 15 | Section Paloise | -2.30 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Clermont | Feb 15 | Toulon | 4.50 |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 16 | Stade Toulousain | -6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »