AFL Predictions for Week 18
Team Ratings for Week 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 27.95 | 26.75 | 1.20 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 26.12 | 6.56 | 19.60 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 17.70 | 22.83 | -5.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 16.44 | 0.56 | 15.90 |
| Brisbane Lions | 14.86 | 26.20 | -11.30 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.79 | 15.32 | -2.50 |
| Western Bulldogs | 7.28 | 26.06 | -18.80 |
| Collingwood | 4.28 | 11.76 | -7.50 |
| GWS Giants | 4.22 | 9.54 | -5.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | 3.66 | 1.64 | 2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 2.65 | 10.24 | -7.60 |
| Carlton Blues | 1.50 | -4.77 | 6.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | -1.27 | -7.63 | 6.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -5.75 | -14.65 | 8.90 |
| North Melbourne | -17.89 | -21.71 | 3.80 |
| Essendon Bombers | -30.14 | -27.89 | -2.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.88 | -39.36 | 5.50 |
| Richmond Tigers | -38.51 | -29.44 | -9.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 135 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 25 | 126 – 83 | 3.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants | Jun 26 | 96 – 82 | 26.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 27 | 117 – 64 | 44.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 27 | 106 – 72 | 44.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 27 | 97 – 71 | -26.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 28 | 79 – 65 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 28 | 80 – 29 | 31.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 18
Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 02 | Geelong Cats | 24.10 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 03 | Sydney Swans | 20.20 |
| 3 | West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 03 | Adelaide Crows | -35.70 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 04 | Hawthorn Hawks | 25.00 |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 04 | Fremantle Dockers | -10.90 |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood | Jul 04 | Gold Coast Suns | 9.40 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 04 | Carlton Blues | -35.00 |
| 8 | Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 05 | St Kilda Saints | -23.90 |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne | Jul 05 | Port Adelaide Power | 23.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »