NRL Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12.29 | 8.77 | 3.50 |
| Dolphins | 8.46 | 1.85 | 6.60 |
| Warriors | 7.12 | -1.18 | 8.30 |
| Roosters | 6.27 | 9.50 | -3.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 6.23 | 0.21 | 6.00 |
| Sharks | 5.42 | 7.25 | -1.80 |
| Rabbitohs | 2.69 | -5.05 | 7.70 |
| Storm | 1.21 | 6.96 | -5.70 |
| Cowboys | -0.85 | -2.69 | 1.80 |
| Bulldogs | -2.61 | 2.13 | -4.70 |
| Broncos | -4.17 | 7.06 | -11.20 |
| Raiders | -4.57 | 1.62 | -6.20 |
| Knights | -4.89 | -14.06 | 9.20 |
| Titans | -6.47 | -8.02 | 1.50 |
| Eels | -7.28 | -0.37 | -6.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.34 | -7.26 | -0.10 |
| Dragons | -11.51 | -6.72 | -4.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 25 | 12 – 32 | -3.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | Jun 26 | 12 – 30 | 3.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Jun 26 | 18 – 24 | -6.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Dolphins vs. Warriors | Jun 27 | 26 – 24 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Panthers | Jun 27 | 26 – 12 | -12.70 | FALSE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Storm | Jun 27 | 30 – 4 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Raiders vs. Dragons | Jun 28 | 24 – 16 | 11.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 28 | 12 – 6 | 6.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 03 | Panthers | 13.60 |
| 2 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 04 | Wests Tigers | -0.20 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Sharks | Jul 04 | Sharks | -5.60 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 05 | Sea Eagles | -9.50 |
| 5 | Knights vs. Dolphins | Jul 05 | Dolphins | -9.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »