AFL Predictions for Week 19
Team Ratings for Week 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 24.53 | 26.75 | -2.20 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 23.70 | 6.56 | 17.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.29 | 26.20 | -7.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 17.60 | 0.56 | 17.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 13.29 | 22.83 | -9.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 11.83 | 15.32 | -3.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | 8.06 | 1.64 | 6.40 |
| GWS Giants | 6.63 | 9.54 | -2.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 6.11 | 26.06 | -19.90 |
| Collingwood | 5.49 | 11.76 | -6.30 |
| St Kilda Saints | 1.49 | -7.63 | 9.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 1.44 | 10.24 | -8.80 |
| Carlton Blues | -1.35 | -4.77 | 3.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -5.82 | -14.65 | 8.80 |
| North Melbourne | -16.45 | -21.71 | 5.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -32.92 | -39.36 | 6.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -34.27 | -27.89 | -6.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -35.66 | -29.44 | -6.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 02 | 101 – 123 | 24.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 03 | 90 – 55 | 20.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 03 | 74 – 99 | -35.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 04 | 90 – 125 | 25.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 04 | 109 – 88 | -10.90 | FALSE |
| 6 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood | Jul 04 | 98 – 104 | 9.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 04 | 72 – 74 | -40.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 05 | 50 – 117 | -30.20 | TRUE |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne | Jul 05 | 73 – 52 | 21.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 19
Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 09 | Fremantle Dockers | 17.10 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. North Melbourne | Jul 10 | Collingwood | 21.90 |
| 3 | St Kilda Saints vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 11 | St Kilda Saints | 18.30 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 11 | Geelong Cats | -6.90 |
| 5 | Carlton Blues vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 11 | Hawthorn Hawks | -14.60 |
| 6 | Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 11 | Adelaide Crows | 21.40 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 12 | Western Bulldogs | 50.00 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 12 | Melbourne Demons | 43.70 |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 12 | Brisbane Lions | 63.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »