NFL Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 8.63 | 4.17 | 4.50 |
| Bills | 8.46 | 4.81 | 3.70 |
| Seahawks | 7.04 | 12.03 | -5.00 |
| Bears | 5.23 | 1.18 | 4.10 |
| 49ers | 5.21 | 0.63 | 4.60 |
| Rams | 5.06 | 6.16 | -1.10 |
| Broncos | 4.18 | 4.07 | 0.10 |
| Bengals | 3.83 | 0.39 | 3.40 |
| Lions | 3.79 | 5.20 | -1.40 |
| Texans | 3.41 | 5.51 | -2.10 |
| Patriots | 3.22 | 8.11 | -4.90 |
| Packers | 3.17 | 1.72 | 1.50 |
| Chiefs | 3.08 | -1.34 | 4.40 |
| Steelers | 2.71 | -0.43 | 3.10 |
| Vikings | 1.87 | 2.79 | -0.90 |
| Buccaneers | 0.92 | -3.95 | 4.90 |
| Giants | -1.69 | -2.38 | 0.70 |
| Commanders | -2.42 | -4.65 | 2.20 |
| Cowboys | -2.98 | -3.42 | 0.40 |
| Falcons | -3.46 | -1.39 | -2.10 |
| Saints | -3.54 | -3.38 | -0.20 |
| Panthers | -3.88 | -4.66 | 0.80 |
| Ravens | -3.95 | 2.53 | -6.50 |
| Browns | -4.39 | -2.50 | -1.90 |
| Raiders | -4.40 | -5.72 | 1.30 |
| Dolphins | -5.07 | -3.99 | -1.10 |
| Colts | -5.08 | -0.74 | -4.30 |
| Chargers | -5.34 | 1.16 | -6.50 |
| Eagles | -6.06 | 0.73 | -6.80 |
| Cardinals | -6.51 | -7.49 | 1.00 |
| Titans | -7.27 | -8.81 | 1.50 |
| Jets | -7.28 | -9.84 | 2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 136 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ravens vs. Jaguars | Nov 06 | 10 – 33 | -10.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Falcons vs. Bengals | Nov 09 | 17 – 34 | -5.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Broncos | Nov 09 | 21 – 26 | -9.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Colts vs. Cowboys | Nov 09 | 23 – 27 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Jets | Nov 09 | 35 – 12 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dolphins vs. Lions | Nov 09 | 9 – 19 | -8.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Saints vs. Browns | Nov 09 | 23 – 22 | 0.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Eagles vs. Giants | Nov 09 | 11 – 19 | -3.00 | TRUE |
| 9 | Commanders vs. Rams | Nov 09 | 13 – 20 | -7.70 | TRUE |
| 10 | Chargers vs. Texans | Nov 09 | 22 – 44 | -5.80 | TRUE |
| 11 | 49ers vs. Raiders | Nov 09 | 38 – 17 | 7.00 | TRUE |
| 12 | Patriots vs. Packers | Nov 09 | 27 – 45 | 3.90 | FALSE |
| 13 | Seahawks vs. Cardinals | Nov 09 | 17 – 3 | 13.40 | TRUE |
| 14 | Bears vs. Buccaneers | Nov 09 | 27 – 24 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 15 | Vikings vs. Bills | Nov 10 | 6 – 23 | -4.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giants vs. Commanders | Nov 13 | Giants | 0.70 |
| 2 | Lions vs. Patriots | Nov 16 | Lions | 0.60 |
| 3 | Falcons vs. Chiefs | Nov 16 | Chiefs | -6.50 |
| 4 | Browns vs. Texans | Nov 16 | Texans | -7.80 |
| 5 | Packers vs. Vikings | Nov 16 | Packers | 1.30 |
| 6 | Colts vs. Dolphins | Nov 16 | Dolphins | -0.00 |
| 7 | Saints vs. Panthers | Nov 16 | Saints | 0.30 |
| 8 | Jets vs. Bills | Nov 16 | Bills | -15.70 |
| 9 | Titans vs. Jaguars | Nov 16 | Jaguars | -15.90 |
| 10 | Cardinals vs. Rams | Nov 16 | Rams | -11.60 |
| 11 | Raiders vs. Seahawks | Nov 16 | Seahawks | -11.40 |
| 12 | Cowboys vs. 49ers | Nov 16 | 49ers | -8.20 |
| 13 | Bengals vs. Steelers | Nov 16 | Bengals | 1.10 |
| 14 | Ravens vs. Chargers | Nov 17 | Ravens | 1.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »