Top 14 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 12.85 | 12.37 | 0.50 |
| Montpellier | 6.39 | 6.36 | 0.00 |
| Section Paloise | 5.37 | 4.18 | 1.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.59 | 3.70 | 0.90 |
| Stade Francais | 4.57 | 5.68 | -1.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.10 | 4.97 | -0.90 |
| Clermont | 3.69 | 4.21 | -0.50 |
| Racing 92 | 1.52 | 3.59 | -2.10 |
| Lyon | 0.42 | -0.94 | 1.40 |
| Toulon | -0.27 | -0.81 | 0.50 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.54 | -0.29 | -1.30 |
| Bayonne | -1.93 | -2.02 | 0.10 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.51 | -5.39 | 0.90 |
| Vannes | -9.64 | -10.00 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sept 27 | 38 – 25 | -3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | Sept 27 | 20 – 6 | 11.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Bayonne | Sept 27 | 17 – 20 | 10.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | Sept 27 | 31 – 10 | 9.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Vannes | Sept 27 | 28 – 10 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais | Sept 27 | 39 – 17 | 6.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Sept 28 | 40 – 18 | 12.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Oct 04 | Bordeaux Begles | 10.70 |
| 2 | Bayonne vs. Stade Francais | Oct 04 | Bayonne | 0.00 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 04 | Racing 92 | 12.50 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont | Oct 04 | Stade Rochelais | 6.90 |
| 5 | Vannes vs. Section Paloise | Oct 04 | Section Paloise | -8.50 |
| 6 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 04 | Stade Toulousain | -7.90 |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Toulon | Oct 05 | Montpellier | 13.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »