Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taranaki | 10.14 | 7.57 | 2.60 |
| Canterbury | 8.08 | 10.29 | -2.20 |
| Otago | 6.82 | 5.80 | 1.00 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.41 | 5.18 | -0.80 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.05 | 9.80 | -6.80 |
| North Harbour | 2.91 | -4.18 | 7.10 |
| Northland | 2.70 | -5.96 | 8.70 |
| Tasman | 1.72 | 0.68 | 1.00 |
| Waikato | -0.34 | -0.83 | 0.50 |
| Auckland | -1.21 | -2.64 | 1.40 |
| Counties Manukau | -1.91 | 3.63 | -5.50 |
| Manawatu | -8.51 | -15.05 | 6.50 |
| Wellington | -10.77 | 2.70 | -13.50 |
| Southland | -10.93 | -10.83 | -0.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otago vs. Auckland | Oct 01 | 45 – 42 | 12.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Southland vs. Northland | Oct 02 | 14 – 28 | -9.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Manawatu vs. Canterbury | Oct 03 | 12 – 22 | -14.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 03 | 12 – 7 | -4.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Waikato vs. Tasman | Oct 03 | 33 – 50 | 3.60 | FALSE |
| 6 | Taranaki vs. Wellington | Oct 04 | 68 – 26 | 21.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour | Oct 04 | 38 – 21 | 0.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northland vs. Tasman | Oct 09 | Northland | 4.00 |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Taranaki | Oct 10 | Taranaki | -4.20 |
| 3 | Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 10 | Otago | 5.40 |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Waikato | Oct 11 | Canterbury | 11.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »