Posts from November 2026 (3)

November 3, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.90 12.13 -0.20
Bulls 10.92 10.00 0.90
Stormers 7.10 6.49 0.60
Glasgow 6.40 6.47 -0.10
Sharks 4.89 2.16 2.70
Munster 1.52 1.25 0.30
Lions 0.82 1.48 -0.70
Edinburgh 0.01 -2.55 2.60
Ulster -0.08 -0.32 0.20
Connacht -0.78 2.62 -3.40
Cardiff Rugby -1.98 -1.63 -0.40
Ospreys -4.00 -3.35 -0.60
Benetton -5.22 -6.67 1.50
Scarlets -5.99 -3.47 -2.50
Dragons -9.44 -10.04 0.60
Zebre -16.07 -14.56 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 31 5 – 50 -7.10 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Lions Oct 31 29 – 20 11.70 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Ulster Nov 01 33 – 7 11.10 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 01 31 – 12 -1.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Scarlets Nov 01 54 – 26 20.70 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Zebre Nov 01 35 – 14 10.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Sharks Nov 01 3 – 15 3.80 FALSE
8 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 01 0 – 26 3.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Dec 05 Edinburgh 14.90
2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Dec 05 Leinster -10.40
3 Lions vs. Bulls Dec 06 Bulls -7.60
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Dec 06 Cardiff Rugby 3.60
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Dec 06 Sharks 0.30
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Dec 06 Scarlets 0.30
7 Glasgow vs. Benetton Dec 06 Glasgow 17.10
8 Zebre vs. Munster Dec 06 Munster -12.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.76 12.37 -1.60
Montpellier 8.20 6.36 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.47 3.70 1.80
Section Paloise 4.84 4.18 0.70
Stade Francais 4.68 5.68 -1.00
Stade Rochelais 4.28 4.97 -0.70
Clermont 2.34 4.21 -1.90
Racing 92 1.47 3.59 -2.10
Toulon 0.41 -0.81 1.20
Lyon 0.32 -0.94 1.30
Bayonne -1.40 -2.02 0.60
Castres Olympique -1.75 -0.29 -1.50
USA Perpignan -4.73 -5.39 0.70
Vannes -9.29 -10.00 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Nov 01 19 – 14 14.10 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Nov 01 37 – 30 7.40 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Vannes Nov 01 48 – 25 15.20 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 01 69 – 10 13.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 01 43 – 24 6.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 01 24 – 25 1.70 FALSE
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 02 34 – 14 -0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Nov 08 Castres Olympique 3.30
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Nov 08 Montpellier 14.40
3 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 08 Section Paloise 16.10
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 08 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Nov 08 Stade Toulousain 14.90
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Nov 08 Toulon 2.20
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 08 Bordeaux Begles -8.30

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 8.74 9.92 -1.20
Northampton Saints 7.25 8.34 -1.10
Bath 6.26 9.66 -3.40
Saracens 4.45 8.04 -3.60
Gloucester 3.31 -3.46 6.80
Exeter Chiefs 1.46 7.58 -6.10
Bristol 1.25 -0.11 1.40
Harlequins -3.17 -3.58 0.40
Sale Sharks -3.44 -2.31 -1.10
Newcastle Red Bulls -17.40 -25.37 8.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 16 – 22 0.90 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Nov 01 28 – 31 14.20 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Nov 01 39 – 31 32.40 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Nov 01 36 – 28 18.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Nov 01 28 – 14 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Dec 05 Bath 12.00
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 06 Gloucester 27.70
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 06 Leicester Tigers -4.90
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 06 Saracens 4.20
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 07 Sale Sharks 2.10

 

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