Top 14 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.44 | 12.37 | -0.90 |
| Montpellier | 6.94 | 6.36 | 0.60 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.82 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.75 | 4.97 | -0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 4.21 | 5.68 | -1.50 |
| Section Paloise | 4.17 | 4.18 | -0.00 |
| Clermont | 2.36 | 4.21 | -1.90 |
| Racing 92 | 1.44 | 3.59 | -2.10 |
| Toulon | 0.25 | -0.81 | 1.10 |
| Lyon | -0.15 | -0.94 | 0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.49 | -0.29 | -0.20 |
| Bayonne | -1.75 | -2.02 | 0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.57 | -5.39 | 0.80 |
| Vannes | -8.82 | -10.00 | 1.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Lyon | Oct 25 | 27 – 31 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais | Oct 25 | 16 – 8 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Montpellier | Oct 25 | 17 – 20 | 1.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 25 | 19 – 25 | 6.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 25 | 38 – 33 | 23.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Oct 25 | 41 – 20 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Vannes vs. Clermont | Oct 25 | 27 – 26 | -5.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne | Nov 01 | Bordeaux Begles | 14.10 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Nov 01 | Clermont | 7.40 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Vannes | Nov 01 | Lyon | 15.20 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 01 | Montpellier | 13.90 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 01 | Stade Francais | 6.00 |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Nov 01 | USA Perpignan | 1.70 |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 02 | Stade Toulousain | -0.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »