Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
I missed predicting the postponed game last week. The result of that game means some fairly small adjustments to the ratings for Toulon and Stade Rochelais. For completeness here is my prediction for the postponed game, following the updated predictions for Round 10.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.81 | 11.56 | 0.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.54 | 4.78 | -0.20 |
| Toulon | 4.28 | 3.49 | 0.80 |
| Stade Rochelais | 3.66 | 1.22 | 2.40 |
| Clermont | 3.64 | 1.88 | 1.80 |
| Section Paloise | 2.96 | 2.21 | 0.80 |
| Bayonne | 1.64 | 1.48 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 1.28 | 1.88 | -0.60 |
| Montpellier | 0.61 | -0.21 | 0.80 |
| Stade Francais | 0.50 | -2.17 | 2.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -1.22 | 0.59 | -1.80 |
| Lyon | -1.86 | -0.45 | -1.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.09 | -3.37 | -2.70 |
| Montauban | -12.86 | -10.00 | -2.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 62 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Montauban | Nov 02 | 49 – 7 | 19.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 02 | 26 – 28 | 1.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Clermont | Nov 02 | 7 – 9 | 4.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 02 | 27 – 23 | 16.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais | Nov 02 | 29 – 17 | 18.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Lyon | Nov 02 | 54 – 21 | 11.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 | Nov 03 | 33 – 6 | 7.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 09 | Toulon | 7.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »