February 8, 2022

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.03 6.78 0.20
Stade Toulousain 6.97 6.83 0.10
Bordeaux-Begles 6.87 5.42 1.50
Racing-Metro 92 5.50 6.13 -0.60
Lyon Rugby 4.87 4.15 0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.45 5.09 -0.60
Montpellier 4.32 -0.01 4.30
Castres Olympique 1.49 0.94 0.50
Stade Francais Paris 0.30 1.20 -0.90
RC Toulonnais -0.53 1.82 -2.30
Section Paloise -2.40 -2.25 -0.20
USA Perpignan -3.23 -2.78 -0.50
Brive -3.68 -3.19 -0.50
Biarritz -4.60 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 82 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 06 36 – 13 -5.40 FALSE
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 06 26 – 22 11.90 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Feb 06 29 – 12 12.80 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Brive Feb 06 57 – 19 14.20 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 06 10 – 22 5.60 FALSE
6 Biarritz vs. La Rochelle Feb 07 27 – 24 -6.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 13 Clermont Auvergne -1.30
2 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 Racing-Metro 92 13.30
3 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 12 Stade Toulousain 14.70
4 RC Toulonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 13 Bordeaux-Begles -1.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »