Top 14 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
Not sure how I missed posting this one, but here it is for completeness.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.20 | 11.56 | 2.60 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.70 | 4.78 | 0.90 |
| Montpellier | 4.13 | -0.21 | 4.30 |
| Clermont | 3.69 | 1.88 | 1.80 |
| Section Paloise | 2.97 | 2.21 | 0.80 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.19 | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Stade Francais | 1.55 | -2.17 | 3.70 |
| Lyon | 1.09 | -0.45 | 1.50 |
| Racing 92 | 0.92 | 1.88 | -1.00 |
| Toulon | 0.18 | 3.49 | -3.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.09 | 0.59 | -0.70 |
| Bayonne | -2.01 | 1.48 | -3.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.63 | -3.37 | -1.30 |
| Montauban | -17.01 | -10.00 | -7.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 119 matches played, 94 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 15 | 57 – 32 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bayonne vs. Racing 92 | Feb 15 | 36 – 41 | 4.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Montauban | Feb 15 | 73 – 12 | 22.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier | Feb 15 | 33 – 43 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Feb 15 | 40 – 24 | -2.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Clermont | Feb 15 | 14 – 34 | 4.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 16 | 9 – 13 | -6.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais | Mar 01 | Castres Olympique | 4.20 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Bayonne | Mar 01 | Clermont | 12.20 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Toulon | Mar 01 | Lyon | 7.40 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Mar 01 | Montpellier | 9.70 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Mar 01 | Stade Francais | 12.70 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban | Mar 01 | Stade Toulousain | 37.70 |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Mar 02 | Section Paloise | 3.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi David,
Are you doing afl this year?
Thank you
-Colin
1 month ago
Yes, in fact I thought I had posted the first week’s predictions. Luckily I checked before replying to you.
First week is posted now.
1 month ago
Thank you
1 month ago