Top 14 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 12.14 | 12.37 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 5.79 | 6.36 | -0.60 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.20 | 4.97 | 0.20 |
| Stade Francais | 5.14 | 5.68 | -0.50 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.13 | 3.70 | 1.40 |
| Section Paloise | 4.75 | 4.18 | 0.60 |
| Clermont | 4.05 | 4.21 | -0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 2.16 | 3.59 | -1.40 |
| Toulon | -0.56 | -0.81 | 0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.72 | -0.29 | -0.40 |
| Lyon | -0.78 | -0.94 | 0.20 |
| Bayonne | -2.28 | -2.02 | -0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.85 | -5.39 | 0.50 |
| Vannes | -9.57 | -10.00 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Toulon | Sept 06 | 27 – 26 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Vannes | Sept 06 | 29 – 20 | 16.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Sept 06 | 40 – 36 | 1.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Section Paloise | Sept 06 | 19 – 27 | 8.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan | Sept 06 | 28 – 26 | 17.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 | Sept 06 | 64 – 5 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain | Sept 07 | 30 – 27 | -0.90 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Stade Francais | Sept 13 | Clermont | 5.40 |
| 2 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Sept 13 | Racing 92 | 9.40 |
| 3 | Section Paloise vs. Bayonne | Sept 13 | Section Paloise | 13.50 |
| 4 | USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique | Sept 13 | USA Perpignan | 2.40 |
| 5 | Vannes vs. Montpellier | Sept 13 | Montpellier | -8.90 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais | Sept 13 | Toulon | 0.70 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles | Sept 14 | Stade Toulousain | 13.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »