Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

December 29, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Western Province 4.27 5.26 -1.00
Sharks 3.69 5.63 -1.90
Lions 3.46 1.46 2.00
Cheetahs -2.31 -2.96 0.60
Pumas -8.16 -6.66 -1.50
Griquas -8.58 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 13 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Dec 26 34 – 17 17.40 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Dec 27 37 – 10 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Lions Jan 02 Lions -7.10
2 Sharks vs. Griquas Jan 02 Sharks 16.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Jan 02 Western Province -2.10

 

December 25, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.73 6.21 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.63 4.80 0.80
Lyon Rugby 5.32 5.61 -0.30
La Rochelle 4.73 2.32 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 3.22 1.30
RC Toulonnais 3.39 3.56 -0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 2.75 2.83 -0.10
Montpellier 2.27 2.30 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris -0.16 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.46 -0.47 -2.00
Section Paloise -3.38 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.73 -3.26 -0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.21 -4.72 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 71 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Dec 23 24 – 25 7.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Lyon Rugby Dec 27 Lyon Rugby -3.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Dec 27 Castres Olympique 7.90
3 La Rochelle vs. Montpellier Dec 27 La Rochelle 8.00
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. SU Agen Dec 27 Racing-Metro 92 22.40
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Clermont Auvergne Dec 27 RC Toulonnais 4.40
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Dec 27 Section Paloise 2.30
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux-Begles Dec 27 Stade Toulousain 8.40

 

December 22, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 5.76 5.63 0.10
Western Province 4.31 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.46 1.46 2.00
Cheetahs -4.38 -2.96 -1.40
Pumas -8.16 -6.66 -1.50
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 11 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Dec 18 31 – 35 1.80 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 19 27 – 12 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Griquas Dec 26 Western Province 17.40
2 Bulls vs. Lions Dec 26 Bulls 8.70
3 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Dec 27 Sharks -5.60

 

December 17, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.63 6.16 1.50
Sharks 6.78 5.63 1.10
Western Province 4.31 5.26 -1.00
Lions 2.44 1.46 1.00
Cheetahs -4.90 -2.96 -1.90
Pumas -7.64 -6.66 -1.00
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 88.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Dec 11 28 – 14 17.00 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Dec 12 23 – 39 -0.70 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 12 32 – 29 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Dec 18 Pumas 1.80
2 Griquas vs. Bulls Dec 19 Bulls -11.80
3 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 19 Lions 0.20

 

December 10, 2020

Rugby Predictions for the Weekend of December 19-20

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I will be out of internet contact, even without a computer until Wednesday December 16 so I won’t be able to follow my usual practice of posting predictions on a Tuesday.  This only affects predictions for the Currie Cup as it happens.

I expect to post predictions for Round 4 of the Currie Cup either late on December 16 or on the morning of December 17, New Zealand time.

December 8, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.73 6.21 0.50
Stade Toulousain 5.63 4.80 0.80
Lyon Rugby 5.31 5.61 -0.30
La Rochelle 4.72 2.32 2.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.54 3.22 1.30
RC Toulonnais 3.39 3.56 -0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 2.77 2.83 -0.10
Montpellier 2.26 2.30 -0.00
Stade Francais Paris -0.16 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.21 -0.47 -1.70
Section Paloise -3.37 -4.48 1.10
Brive -3.98 -3.26 -0.70
Aviron Bayonnais -4.85 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -10.22 -4.72 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 20 – 24 -5.10 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 12 – 17 2.60 FALSE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Dec 05 15 – 21 8.80 FALSE
4 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Dec 05 22 – 18 6.40 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Dec 05 13 – 17 5.10 FALSE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 24 – 23 2.10 TRUE
7 SU Agen vs. Brive Dec 05 6 – 15 -0.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Dec 23 Castres Olympique 7.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 10.47 7.35 3.10
Sale Sharks 4.22 4.96 -0.70
Wasps 3.01 5.66 -2.70
Bristol 1.43 1.28 0.10
Bath 0.50 2.14 -1.60
Harlequins -0.37 -1.08 0.70
Gloucester -1.99 -1.02 -1.00
Northampton Saints -2.95 -2.48 -0.50
Leicester Tigers -6.21 -6.14 -0.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.89 -10.00 3.10
Worcester Warriors -7.15 -5.71 -1.40
London Irish -7.17 -8.05 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Dec 05 18 – 17 9.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 06 13 – 35 -10.90 TRUE
3 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 06 17 – 27 17.00 FALSE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Dec 06 17 – 33 -1.60 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Dec 07 13 – 21 -6.70 TRUE
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 07 24 – 34 4.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. London Irish Dec 27 Bath 12.20
2 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 27 Harlequins 2.70
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 27 Newcastle Falcons 3.80
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Dec 27 Exeter Chiefs 17.00
5 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 27 Northampton Saints 8.70
6 Sale Sharks vs. Wasps Dec 28 Sale Sharks 5.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.26 9.90 0.40
Ulster 7.88 4.58 3.30
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Glasgow Warriors 3.12 5.66 -2.50
Scarlets 1.88 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.04 0.70 0.30
Cardiff Blues -0.41 0.08 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.25 -2.82 -0.40
Treviso -4.26 -3.50 -0.80
Dragons -7.28 -7.85 0.60
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.71 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Treviso Dec 05 31 – 24 11.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Dec 06 22 – 23 19.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 27 Ulster -1.80
2 Dragons vs. Cardiff Blues Dec 27 Cardiff Blues -1.90
3 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Dec 27 Glasgow Warriors 4.40
4 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 27 Leinster -4.10
5 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Dec 27 Scarlets -0.10
6 Zebre vs. Treviso Dec 27 Treviso -7.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 7.56 6.16 1.40
Sharks 6.86 5.63 1.20
Western Province 4.57 5.26 -0.70
Lions 1.39 1.46 -0.10
Cheetahs -3.86 -2.96 -0.90
Pumas -7.91 -6.66 -1.20
Griquas -8.62 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Dec 04 22 – 17 5.30 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Dec 05 40 – 13 14.10 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Western Province Dec 05 22 – 19 0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Pumas Dec 11 Western Province 17.00
2 Cheetahs vs. Lions Dec 12 Lions -0.70
3 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 12 Sharks 3.80

 

December 1, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.86 5.63 1.20
Bulls 6.67 6.16 0.50
Western Province 4.76 5.26 -0.50
Lions 1.21 1.46 -0.30
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -7.89 -6.66 -1.20
Griquas -8.64 -8.90 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 3 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 45 – 10 16.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 17 – 20 -5.90 TRUE
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 20 – 22 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Dec 04 Pumas 5.30
2 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Dec 05 Bulls 14.10
3 Lions vs. Western Province Dec 05 Lions 0.90

 

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