Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

December 1, 2020

Pro14 Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 10.28 9.90 0.40
Ulster 7.88 4.58 3.30
Glasgow Warriors 3.81 5.66 -1.90
Edinburgh 3.72 5.49 -1.80
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues -0.43 0.08 -0.50
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -4.60 -3.50 -1.10
Dragons -8.01 -7.85 -0.20
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.70 -15.37 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 41 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 10 – 19 3.30 FALSE
2 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 19 – 26 11.30 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 14 – 43 4.40 FALSE
4 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 52 – 3 32.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Rounds 4 and 5 Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Treviso Dec 05 Connacht 11.50
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Dragons Dec 06 Glasgow Warriors 19.10

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 9.85 7.35 2.50
Wasps 4.33 5.66 -1.30
Sale Sharks 4.11 4.96 -0.90
Bristol 1.95 1.28 0.70
Bath -0.27 2.14 -2.40
Harlequins -1.14 -1.08 -0.10
Gloucester -1.22 -1.02 -0.20
Northampton Saints -3.47 -2.48 -1.00
Leicester Tigers -5.59 -6.14 0.50
Worcester Warriors -6.37 -5.71 -0.70
London Irish -7.07 -8.05 1.00
Newcastle Falcons -8.21 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 15 – 13 -9.00 FALSE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 29 – 49 4.60 FALSE
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 30 – 13 12.20 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 40 – 3 12.20 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 40 – 24 -3.00 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 22 – 9 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Dec 05 Bristol 9.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 06 Exeter Chiefs -10.90
3 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 06 Wasps 17.00
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Bath Dec 06 Bath -1.60
5 London Irish vs. Sale Sharks Dec 07 Sale Sharks -6.70
6 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Dec 07 Gloucester 4.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.20 6.21 -0.00
Stade Toulousain 5.71 4.80 0.90
Lyon Rugby 5.48 5.61 -0.10
Clermont Auvergne 5.07 3.22 1.90
La Rochelle 4.55 2.32 2.20
RC Toulonnais 3.31 3.56 -0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 3.30 2.83 0.50
Montpellier 1.73 2.30 -0.60
Stade Francais Paris -0.08 -3.22 3.10
Castres Olympique -2.57 -0.47 -2.10
Section Paloise -3.00 -4.48 1.50
Brive -4.34 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.93 -4.13 -0.80
SU Agen -9.86 -4.72 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 14 – 40 -0.60 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 36 – 22 14.50 TRUE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 20 – 19 11.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 22 – 23 4.70 FALSE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 43 – 17 15.80 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 18 – 13 12.90 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 63 – 18 19.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 05 Stade Toulousain -5.10
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Racing-Metro 92 Dec 05 Bordeaux-Begles 2.60
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Montpellier Dec 05 Clermont Auvergne 8.80
4 Lyon Rugby vs. La Rochelle Dec 05 Lyon Rugby 6.40
5 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Dec 05 Section Paloise 5.10
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. RC Toulonnais Dec 05 Stade Francais Paris 2.10
7 SU Agen vs. Brive Dec 05 Brive -0.00

 

November 24, 2020

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 6.16 6.16 -0.00
Sharks 5.63 5.63 -0.00
Western Province 5.26 5.26 -0.00
Lions 1.46 1.46 -0.00
Cheetahs -2.96 -2.96 -0.00
Pumas -6.66 -6.66 0.00
Griquas -8.90 -8.90 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Pumas Nov 27 Sharks 16.80
2 Griquas vs. Lions Nov 28 Lions -5.90
3 Western Province vs. Bulls Nov 28 Western Province 3.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

So this year it is a constant battle to keep up with changes to schedules and I lost a skirmish last week with details of the postponed games. The predictions for last week are what I would have given if I had the match details correct.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lyon Rugby 5.90 5.61 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.80 6.21 -0.40
Stade Toulousain 4.92 4.80 0.10
La Rochelle 4.58 2.32 2.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.27 3.22 1.10
RC Toulonnais 3.87 3.56 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 2.90 2.83 0.10
Montpellier 2.13 2.30 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.50 -3.22 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.78 -0.47 -1.30
Section Paloise -3.56 -4.48 0.90
Brive -4.37 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.53 -4.13 -0.40
SU Agen -9.06 -4.72 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais Paris vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 22 26 – 16 -0.50 FALSE
2 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 23 9 – 6 0.80 TRUE
3 Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 22 35 – 29 -2.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 Clermont Auvergne -0.60
2 La Rochelle vs. Brive Nov 28 La Rochelle 14.50
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 Lyon Rugby 11.90
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 Montpellier 4.70
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Aviron Bayonnais Nov 28 Racing-Metro 92 15.80
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 RC Toulonnais 12.90
7 Stade Toulousain vs. SU Agen Nov 28 Stade Toulousain 19.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 8.62 7.35 1.30
Wasps 5.30 5.66 -0.40
Sale Sharks 4.73 4.96 -0.20
Bristol 1.65 1.28 0.40
Bath 0.96 2.14 -1.20
Gloucester -2.20 -1.02 -1.20
Northampton Saints -2.25 -2.48 0.20
Harlequins -2.36 -1.08 -1.30
Leicester Tigers -4.96 -6.14 1.20
Worcester Warriors -6.07 -5.71 -0.40
London Irish -7.69 -8.05 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -8.82 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 21 3 – 33 -3.90 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 21 32 – 23 11.90 TRUE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 21 12 – 19 16.60 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Nov 22 38 – 15 -0.60 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. London Irish Nov 22 11 – 10 6.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Bristol Nov 23 23 – 20 8.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 Sale Sharks -9.00
2 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Nov 29 Northampton Saints 4.60
3 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 29 Bristol 12.20
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Nov 29 Exeter Chiefs 12.20
5 Gloucester vs. Wasps Nov 29 Wasps -3.00
6 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 30 London Irish 1.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 19.39 16.52 2.90
Munster 9.63 9.90 -0.30
Ulster 6.83 4.58 2.20
Edinburgh 4.77 5.49 -0.70
Glasgow Warriors 3.29 5.66 -2.40
Scarlets 1.89 1.98 -0.10
Connacht 1.42 0.70 0.70
Cardiff Blues 0.10 0.08 0.00
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -3.28 -2.82 -0.50
Treviso -3.91 -3.50 -0.40
Dragons -8.69 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -16.05 -15.37 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Connacht Nov 23 12 – 47 -9.20 TRUE
2 Ospreys vs. Treviso Nov 23 24 – 22 8.30 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Cardiff Blues Nov 23 40 – 5 24.90 TRUE
4 Ulster vs. Scarlets Nov 23 26 – 24 12.40 TRUE
5 Glasgow Warriors vs. Munster Nov 24 13 – 27 1.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 29 Connacht 11.20
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Nov 30 Leinster -11.00
3 Cardiff Blues vs. Glasgow Warriors Nov 30 Cardiff Blues 3.30
4 Treviso vs. Dragons Dec 01 Treviso 11.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Dec 01 Edinburgh 4.40
6 Munster vs. Zebre Dec 01 Munster 32.20

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 11.99 15.13 -3.10
Auckland 8.19 6.75 1.40
Canterbury 6.78 8.40 -1.60
Bay of Plenty 5.97 8.21 -2.20
Wellington 5.73 6.47 -0.70
North Harbour 5.23 2.87 2.40
Hawke’s Bay 4.23 0.91 3.30
Waikato 2.02 1.31 0.70
Otago -3.44 -4.03 0.60
Taranaki -4.73 -4.42 -0.30
Northland -5.36 -8.71 3.40
Counties Manukau -10.75 -8.18 -2.60
Southland -10.78 -14.04 3.30
Manawatu -14.98 -10.57 -4.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Northland Nov 20 19 – 32 7.50 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Waikato Nov 21 23 – 18 10.00 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Nov 21 59 – 23 8.60 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 21 19 – 10 9.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Northland Nov 27 Hawke’s Bay 12.60
2 Auckland vs. Tasman Nov 28 Tasman -0.80

 

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November 17, 2020

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lyon Rugby 5.91 5.61 0.30
Racing-Metro 92 5.90 6.21 -0.30
Stade Toulousain 4.92 4.80 0.10
La Rochelle 4.47 2.32 2.20
Clermont Auvergne 4.24 3.22 1.00
RC Toulonnais 4.19 3.56 0.60
Bordeaux-Begles 3.17 2.83 0.30
Montpellier 2.12 2.30 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.81 -3.22 2.40
Castres Olympique -1.77 -0.47 -1.30
Section Paloise -3.54 -4.48 0.90
Brive -4.32 -3.26 -1.10
Aviron Bayonnais -4.87 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -9.06 -4.72 -4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier Nov 14 29 – 20 -2.40 FALSE
2 Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 14 19 – 23 -4.80 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 14 29 – 30 0.80 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 14 16 – 22 -2.50 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. La Rochelle Nov 14 35 – 13 -1.30 FALSE
6 SU Agen vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 14 9 – 38 -6.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 23 La Rochelle 0.80
2 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 21 Montpellier 7.40
3 Aviron Bayonnais vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 22 RC Toulonnais -2.60
4 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 22 Clermont Auvergne 3.80

 

Super Rugby Unlocked Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 1.84 -1.45 3.30
Sharks 1.16 4.01 -2.80
Stormers 0.80 1.00 -0.20
Lions -3.00 -4.82 1.80
Cheetahs -8.14 -10.00 1.90
Pumas -11.27 -10.00 -1.30
Griquas -12.65 -10.00 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Sharks Nov 13 33 – 34 -10.70 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Nov 14 30 – 13 12.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Pumas Nov 20 Bulls 17.60
2 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Nov 21 Cheetahs 9.00
3 Sharks vs. Stormers Nov 21 Sharks 4.90

 

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