Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

July 19, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for the Qualifiers

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Team Ratings for the Qualifiers

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.12 13.22 3.90
Lions 14.57 7.64 6.90
Crusaders 13.83 8.75 5.10
Highlanders 11.28 9.17 2.10
Chiefs 9.88 9.75 0.10
Brumbies 2.30 3.83 -1.50
Stormers 1.48 1.51 -0.00
Blues -0.22 -1.07 0.90
Sharks -0.26 0.42 -0.70
Waratahs -3.81 5.81 -9.60
Bulls -4.96 0.29 -5.20
Jaguares -5.03 -4.36 -0.70
Force -6.97 -9.45 2.50
Cheetahs -9.63 -7.36 -2.30
Reds -9.92 -10.28 0.40
Kings -12.08 -19.02 6.90
Rebels -15.29 -8.17 -7.10
Sunwolves -19.38 -17.76 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Jul 14 40 – 17 25.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Jaguares Jul 14 29 – 32 -6.70 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 20 – 21 1.30 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Blues Jul 15 48 – 21 -20.90 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 15 28 – 10 10.70 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jul 15 31 – 22 6.50 TRUE
7 Force vs. Waratahs Jul 15 40 – 11 -3.60 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 15 10 – 27 -10.60 TRUE
9 Bulls vs. Stormers Jul 15 33 – 41 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifiers

Here are the predictions for the Qualifiers. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jul 21 Hurricanes -10.80
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 22 Crusaders 6.10
3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 22 Lions 18.30
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 22 Chiefs -4.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 20

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Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Cowboys 6.45 6.90 -0.50
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Panthers 2.97 6.08 -3.10
Sea Eagles 2.87 -2.98 5.80
Sharks 2.76 5.84 -3.10
Raiders 2.21 9.94 -7.70
Roosters 1.07 -1.17 2.20
Eels -0.41 -0.81 0.40
Rabbitohs -1.22 -1.82 0.60
Titans -1.60 -0.98 -0.60
Warriors -2.42 -6.02 3.60
Dragons -2.63 -7.74 5.10
Bulldogs -4.36 -1.34 -3.00
Wests Tigers -6.78 -3.89 -2.90
Knights -11.93 -16.94 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 14 22 – 34 0.60 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 14 18 – 14 9.20 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Broncos Jul 15 22 – 34 -12.00 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 15 30 – 10 -4.60 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 16 28 – 16 13.40 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 16 10 – 23 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 Broncos 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 21 Roosters 16.50
3 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 Sharks 7.50
4 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 22 Panthers 8.10
5 Raiders vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -1.70
6 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jul 22 Cowboys 12.90
7 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 Sea Eagles -2.00
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 23 Eels -2.90

 

July 12, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.96 13.22 3.70
Lions 14.18 7.64 6.50
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Chiefs 9.45 9.75 -0.30
Brumbies 2.74 3.83 -1.10
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Stormers 1.14 1.51 -0.40
Sharks 0.12 0.42 -0.30
Waratahs -1.86 5.81 -7.70
Bulls -4.61 0.29 -4.90
Jaguares -4.81 -4.36 -0.50
Force -8.93 -9.45 0.50
Cheetahs -9.77 -7.36 -2.40
Reds -10.07 -10.28 0.20
Kings -11.94 -19.02 7.10
Rebels -15.51 -8.17 -7.30
Sunwolves -22.26 -17.76 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 09 14 – 17 12.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Jul 07 16 – 15 -10.70 FALSE
3 Force vs. Rebels Jul 07 31 – 22 10.20 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Jaguares Jul 08 27 – 40 9.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Kings Jul 08 30 – 31 12.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jul 08 52 – 15 26.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Jul 14 Highlanders 25.50
2 Rebels vs. Jaguares Jul 14 Jaguares -6.70
3 Kings vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 Kings 1.30
4 Sunwolves vs. Blues Jul 15 Blues -20.90
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 15 Chiefs 10.70
6 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jul 15 Hurricanes 6.50
7 Force vs. Waratahs Jul 15 Waratahs -3.60
8 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 15 Lions -10.60
9 Bulls vs. Stormers Jul 15 Stormers -2.20

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Cowboys 5.61 6.90 -1.30
Sharks 4.64 5.84 -1.20
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Sea Eagles 3.00 -2.98 6.00
Raiders 2.64 9.94 -7.30
Panthers 1.97 6.08 -4.10
Roosters 1.07 -1.17 2.20
Rabbitohs -0.38 -1.82 1.40
Eels -0.41 -0.81 0.40
Warriors -1.42 -6.02 4.60
Dragons -3.07 -7.74 4.70
Titans -3.49 -0.98 -2.50
Bulldogs -4.36 -1.34 -3.00
Wests Tigers -6.91 -3.89 -3.00
Knights -11.93 -16.94 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 07 14 – 12 5.60 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 08 16 – 8 1.40 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 08 6 – 22 16.20 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 09 20 – 18 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 14 Warriors 0.60
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 14 Raiders 9.20
3 Knights vs. Broncos Jul 15 Broncos -12.00
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 15 Sharks -4.60
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 16 Sea Eagles 13.40
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 16 Cowboys -2.50

 

July 4, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.92 13.22 4.70
Lions 14.18 7.64 6.50
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Chiefs 8.49 9.75 -1.30
Brumbies 3.44 3.83 -0.40
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Stormers 0.48 1.51 -1.00
Sharks 0.12 0.42 -0.30
Waratahs -0.50 5.81 -6.30
Bulls -3.81 0.29 -4.10
Jaguares -6.17 -4.36 -1.80
Force -8.85 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.77 -7.36 -2.40
Reds -10.78 -10.28 -0.50
Kings -12.74 -19.02 6.30
Rebels -15.58 -8.17 -7.40
Sunwolves -21.60 -17.76 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 34 – 29 14.60 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 25 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 46 – 31 12.70 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 32 – 3 21.60 TRUE
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 12 – 34 -22.90 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Kings Jun 30 30 – 31 12.20 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Sunwolves Jul 01 94 – 7 33.30 TRUE
8 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 01 34 – 40 -6.90 TRUE
9 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 01 17 – 30 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Brumbies -10.70
3 Force vs. Rebels Jul 07 Force 10.20
4 Waratahs vs. Jaguares Jul 08 Waratahs 9.70
5 Bulls vs. Kings Jul 08 Bulls 12.40
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jul 08 Stormers 26.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.83 8.49 1.30
Cowboys 5.61 6.90 -1.30
Sharks 4.64 5.84 -1.20
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Sea Eagles 3.54 -2.98 6.50
Raiders 2.64 9.94 -7.30
Panthers 1.43 6.08 -4.70
Roosters 1.40 -1.17 2.60
Rabbitohs -0.70 -1.82 1.10
Warriors -1.42 -6.02 4.60
Eels -2.85 -0.81 -2.00
Dragons -3.07 -7.74 4.70
Titans -3.49 -0.98 -2.50
Bulldogs -3.49 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -6.91 -3.89 -3.00
Knights -12.79 -16.94 4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 29 13 – 12 4.80 TRUE
2 Titan vs. Dragons Jun 30 20 – 10 1.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jun 30 12 – 42 2.10 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 01 12 – 44 5.90 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 01 26 – 22 5.20 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 01 18 – 31 3.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 02 12 – 33 1.00 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 02 42 – 14 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 07 Roosters 5.60
2 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 08 Panthers 1.40
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 08 Storm 16.20
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 09 Bulldogs 12.80

 

June 27, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Broncos 6.01 4.36 1.60
Cowboys 4.35 6.90 -2.60
Roosters 4.24 -1.17 5.40
Raiders 3.89 9.94 -6.10
Panthers 3.80 6.08 -2.30
Sea Eagles 3.65 -2.98 6.60
Sharks 1.80 5.84 -4.00
Warriors -1.53 -6.02 4.50
Dragons -2.40 -7.74 5.30
Eels -2.50 -0.81 -1.70
Rabbitohs -3.08 -1.82 -1.30
Bulldogs -3.84 -1.34 -2.50
Titans -4.16 -0.98 -3.20
Wests Tigers -8.61 -3.89 -4.70
Knights -11.10 -16.94 5.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 118 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Jun 23 21 – 14 6.20 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 23 14 – 26 1.10 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 24 14 – 12 4.50 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 24 20 – 30 3.50 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 24 25 – 24 0.20 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Jun 25 32 – 28 13.80 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jun 25 18 – 35 5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 29 Eels 4.80
2 Titans vs. Dragons Jun 30 Titans 1.70
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jun 30 Broncos 2.10
4 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 01 Roosters 5.90
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 01 Sea Eagles 5.20
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 01 Raiders 3.00
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 02 Knights 1.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 02 Panthers -3.40

 

June 21, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.48 8.49 -1.00
Raiders 4.96 9.94 -5.00
Broncos 4.94 4.36 0.60
Cowboys 4.58 6.90 -2.30
Roosters 4.17 -1.17 5.30
Panthers 3.58 6.08 -2.50
Sharks 3.50 5.84 -2.30
Sea Eagles 1.95 -2.98 4.90
Warriors -1.60 -6.02 4.40
Dragons -1.61 -7.74 6.10
Eels -2.50 -0.81 -1.70
Rabbitohs -3.08 -1.82 -1.30
Bulldogs -3.76 -1.34 -2.40
Titans -5.19 -0.98 -4.20
Wests Tigers -7.57 -3.89 -3.70
Knights -11.88 -16.94 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 36 – 20 3.70 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 17 23 – 22 7.50 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 24 – 22 16.90 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 18 24 – 10 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Jun 23 Warriors 6.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 23 Wests Tigers 1.10
3 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 24 Cowboys 4.50
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 24 Raiders 3.50
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 24 Roosters 0.20
6 Dragons vs. Knights Jun 25 Dragons 13.80
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jun 25 Sharks 5.00

 

June 13, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.01 8.49 -0.50
Raiders 4.96 9.94 -5.00
Broncos 4.94 4.36 0.60
Sharks 4.67 5.84 -1.20
Roosters 4.17 -1.17 5.30
Cowboys 4.05 6.90 -2.90
Panthers 3.58 6.08 -2.50
Sea Eagles 1.95 -2.98 4.90
Dragons -0.54 -7.74 7.20
Warriors -1.60 -6.02 4.40
Eels -3.57 -0.81 -2.80
Bulldogs -3.76 -1.34 -2.40
Rabbitohs -4.06 -1.82 -2.20
Titans -4.21 -0.98 -3.20
Wests Tigers -8.74 -3.89 -4.80
Knights -11.88 -16.94 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jun 08 13 – 18 1.20 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Knights Jun 09 18 – 14 19.80 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Jun 09 24 – 18 13.80 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Warriors Jun 10 12 – 34 5.60 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Jun 10 24 – 20 1.70 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 10 6 – 32 -0.20 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jun 11 18 – 40 -7.10 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Jun 12 16 – 2 -2.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 Rabbitohs 3.70
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 17 Storm 7.50
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 Sharks 16.90
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 18 Eels 0.50

 

June 7, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 16 Game, Hurricanes vs Chiefs

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Team Ratings for Round 16 Game, Hurricanes vs Chiefs

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

This week is pretty crazy, just one game from round 16 when round 15 has not been completed and won’t be for a month.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.92 13.22 4.70
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Lions 10.96 7.64 3.30
Chiefs 8.49 9.75 -1.30
Brumbies 3.44 3.83 -0.40
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Sharks 1.52 0.42 1.10
Stormers 0.53 1.51 -1.00
Waratahs -0.50 5.81 -6.30
Bulls -5.20 0.29 -5.50
Jaguares -5.38 -4.36 -1.00
Force -8.85 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.83 -7.36 -2.50
Reds -10.78 -10.28 -0.50
Kings -13.53 -19.02 5.50
Rebels -15.58 -8.17 -7.40
Sunwolves -18.38 -17.76 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 34 – 29 14.60 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 25 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 46 – 31 12.70 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 32 – 3 21.60 TRUE
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 12 – 34 -22.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16, Hurricanes vs. Chiefs

Here are the predictions for the Round 16 game this week. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 09 Hurricanes 12.90

 

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