June 21, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.48 8.49 -1.00
Raiders 4.96 9.94 -5.00
Broncos 4.94 4.36 0.60
Cowboys 4.58 6.90 -2.30
Roosters 4.17 -1.17 5.30
Panthers 3.58 6.08 -2.50
Sharks 3.50 5.84 -2.30
Sea Eagles 1.95 -2.98 4.90
Warriors -1.60 -6.02 4.40
Dragons -1.61 -7.74 6.10
Eels -2.50 -0.81 -1.70
Rabbitohs -3.08 -1.82 -1.30
Bulldogs -3.76 -1.34 -2.40
Titans -5.19 -0.98 -4.20
Wests Tigers -7.57 -3.89 -3.70
Knights -11.88 -16.94 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 111 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Jun 16 36 – 20 3.70 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Cowboys Jun 17 23 – 22 7.50 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Wests Tigers Jun 17 24 – 22 16.90 TRUE
4 Eels vs. Dragons Jun 18 24 – 10 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Bulldogs Jun 23 Warriors 6.20
2 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 23 Wests Tigers 1.10
3 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 24 Cowboys 4.50
4 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 24 Raiders 3.50
5 Roosters vs. Storm Jun 24 Roosters 0.20
6 Dragons vs. Knights Jun 25 Dragons 13.80
7 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles Jun 25 Sharks 5.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »