Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

April 8, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.30 13.06 -1.80
Roosters 9.06 9.09 -0.00
Cowboys 6.51 9.52 -3.00
Storm 5.32 4.36 1.00
Broncos 4.51 4.03 0.50
Panthers 2.88 3.69 -0.80
Bulldogs 1.52 0.21 1.30
Warriors 1.47 3.07 -1.60
Knights 0.29 -0.28 0.60
Dragons -1.66 -1.74 0.10
Sea Eagles -2.21 2.68 -4.90
Eels -5.31 -7.19 1.90
Raiders -6.34 -7.09 0.70
Wests Tigers -7.54 -13.13 5.60
Sharks -8.87 -10.76 1.90
Titans -9.60 -8.20 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 03 17 – 18 -7.80 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 03 16 – 26 -11.30 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 0 – 13 7.80 FALSE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 04 16 – 29 10.30 FALSE
5 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 05 12 – 20 25.40 FALSE
6 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 6 – 22 8.60 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 06 10 – 30 2.40 FALSE
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 06 30 – 14 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 10 Roosters -1.50
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 10 Knights -6.20
3 Eels vs. Titans Apr 11 Eels 7.30
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 11 Panthers 8.10
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 Warriors 13.00
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 Bulldogs -0.20
7 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 12 Storm -8.70
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 13 Rabbitohs 7.80

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 10.43 10.42 0.00
Waratahs 8.34 10.00 -1.70
Hurricanes 5.72 2.89 2.80
Brumbies 4.58 2.20 2.40
Chiefs 3.79 2.23 1.60
Bulls 2.49 2.88 -0.40
Stormers 2.03 1.68 0.30
Sharks 0.17 3.91 -3.70
Blues 0.09 1.44 -1.30
Highlanders -0.23 -2.54 2.30
Lions -3.32 -3.39 0.10
Force -4.56 -4.67 0.10
Cheetahs -7.14 -5.55 -1.60
Rebels -7.20 -9.53 2.30
Reds -8.20 -4.98 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 03 25 – 20 8.90 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 23 – 15 4.30 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 04 23 – 16 7.80 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Apr 04 20 – 3 16.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 04 10 – 52 -1.60 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 04 22 – 18 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 10 Blues 0.00
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 11 Crusaders 14.70
3 Waratahs vs. Stormers Apr 11 Waratahs 10.80
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Apr 11 Force 7.10
5 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 11 Bulls 15.20
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 11 Lions 0.50

 

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April 1, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 11.79 13.06 -1.30
Roosters 11.30 9.09 2.20
Cowboys 4.98 9.52 -4.50
Storm 4.64 4.36 0.30
Broncos 4.61 4.03 0.60
Panthers 4.41 3.69 0.70
Warriors 2.15 3.07 -0.90
Knights 1.72 -0.28 2.00
Bulldogs 1.03 0.21 0.80
Sea Eagles -0.61 2.68 -3.30
Dragons -3.09 -1.74 -1.40
Eels -3.63 -7.19 3.60
Raiders -7.94 -7.09 -0.90
Wests Tigers -9.21 -13.13 3.90
Titans -9.71 -8.20 -1.50
Sharks -11.11 -10.76 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Mar 27 29 – 16 -16.40 FALSE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 24 – 25 -8.30 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 28 12 – 4 -0.70 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 28 26 – 14 -1.60 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 28 22 – 24 2.20 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 29 34 – 6 21.30 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Broncos Mar 29 16 – 24 3.10 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 30 18 – 17 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 03 Rabbitohs -7.80
2 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 03 Broncos -11.30
3 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 04 Knights 7.80
4 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Apr 04 Sea Eagles 10.30
5 Roosters vs. Sharks Apr 05 Roosters 25.40
6 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 06 Eels 8.60
7 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 06 Panthers 2.40
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 06 Storm 6.50

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.34 10.42 -2.10
Waratahs 8.34 10.00 -1.70
Hurricanes 6.07 2.89 3.20
Brumbies 4.50 2.20 2.30
Chiefs 3.86 2.23 1.60
Bulls 2.95 2.88 0.10
Sharks 2.26 3.91 -1.70
Stormers 1.68 1.68 -0.00
Blues 0.02 1.44 -1.40
Highlanders -0.23 -2.54 2.30
Lions -3.78 -3.39 -0.40
Force -4.56 -4.67 0.10
Cheetahs -7.05 -5.55 -1.50
Rebels -7.53 -9.53 2.00
Reds -7.87 -4.98 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 47 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 27 36 – 12 17.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Lions Mar 27 17 – 18 0.70 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 28 37 – 27 16.30 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 28 39 – 21 0.50 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 28 23 – 11 13.00 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Force Mar 28 15 – 9 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Crusaders Mar 28 31 – 19 -2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Stormers Apr 03 Hurricanes 8.90
2 Rebels vs. Reds Apr 03 Rebels 4.30
3 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 04 Chiefs 7.80
4 Brumbies vs. Cheetahs Apr 04 Brumbies 16.00
5 Sharks vs. Crusaders Apr 04 Crusaders -1.60
6 Lions vs. Bulls Apr 04 Bulls -2.70

 

March 25, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 13.78 13.06 0.70
Roosters 10.81 9.09 1.70
Panthers 5.37 3.69 1.70
Cowboys 5.19 9.52 -4.30
Storm 4.43 4.36 0.10
Broncos 3.83 4.03 -0.20
Warriors 2.94 3.07 -0.10
Bulldogs 1.56 0.21 1.40
Knights 0.77 -0.28 1.00
Sea Eagles 0.01 2.68 -2.70
Dragons -3.71 -1.74 -2.00
Eels -5.62 -7.19 1.60
Raiders -7.45 -7.09 -0.40
Wests Tigers -9.74 -13.13 3.40
Titans -10.02 -8.20 -1.80
Sharks -10.80 -10.76 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 20 44 – 22 -1.60 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 20 12 – 16 2.40 FALSE
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Mar 21 20 – 22 -0.50 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sharks Mar 21 36 – 18 18.30 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Eels Mar 21 29 – 16 12.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 20 – 6 28.60 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 18 – 20 -8.80 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 23 20 – 12 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Mar 27 Rabbitohs -16.40
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 27 Bulldogs -8.30
3 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Mar 28 Sea Eagles -0.70
4 Knights vs. Panthers Mar 28 Panthers -1.60
5 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 28 Sharks 2.20
6 Roosters vs. Raiders Mar 29 Roosters 21.30
7 Warriors vs. Broncos Mar 29 Warriors 3.10
8 Cowboys vs. Storm Mar 30 Cowboys 3.80

 

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Super 15 Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.22 10.42 -1.20
Waratahs 8.43 10.00 -1.60
Hurricanes 5.61 2.89 2.70
Brumbies 4.50 2.20 2.30
Chiefs 4.29 2.23 2.10
Stormers 2.70 1.68 1.00
Sharks 2.68 3.91 -1.20
Bulls 2.06 2.88 -0.80
Blues -0.07 1.44 -1.50
Highlanders -1.26 -2.54 1.30
Lions -3.93 -3.39 -0.50
Force -4.98 -4.67 -0.30
Rebels -7.07 -9.53 2.50
Cheetahs -7.48 -5.55 -1.90
Reds -7.72 -4.98 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 13 – 20 -2.20 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 20 16 – 20 2.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Cheetahs Mar 21 57 – 14 18.50 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Force Mar 21 25 – 24 13.00 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs Mar 21 12 – 11 3.30 TRUE
6 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 28 – 13 6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 27 Hurricanes 17.20
2 Reds vs. Lions Mar 27 Reds 0.70
3 Chiefs vs. Cheetahs Mar 28 Chiefs 16.30
4 Highlanders vs. Stormers Mar 28 Highlanders 0.50
5 Waratahs vs. Blues Mar 28 Waratahs 13.00
6 Sharks vs. Force Mar 28 Sharks 12.20
7 Bulls vs. Crusaders Mar 28 Crusaders -2.70

 

March 18, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 14.80 13.06 1.70
Roosters 10.85 9.09 1.80
Cowboys 6.80 9.52 -2.70
Panthers 5.32 3.69 1.60
Storm 4.46 4.36 0.10
Warriors 2.89 3.07 -0.20
Broncos 2.21 4.03 -1.80
Knights 1.26 -0.28 1.50
Bulldogs 1.10 0.21 0.90
Sea Eagles 0.48 2.68 -2.20
Dragons -3.83 -1.74 -2.10
Eels -5.58 -7.19 1.60
Raiders -7.33 -7.09 -0.20
Titans -10.51 -8.20 -2.30
Wests Tigers -10.76 -13.13 2.40
Sharks -10.82 -10.76 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 13 32 – 12 8.00 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Broncos Mar 13 2 – 10 -10.40 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 14 14 – 16 10.30 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Titans Mar 14 40 – 0 15.50 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 14 24 – 22 -1.50 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 15 34 – 26 6.70 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 15 6 – 18 -5.20 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Mar 16 22 – 4 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 20 Cowboys -1.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Mar 20 Sea Eagles 2.40
3 Raiders vs. Dragons Mar 21 Dragons -0.50
4 Storm vs. Sharks Mar 21 Storm 18.30
5 Warriors vs. Eels Mar 21 Warriors 12.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers Mar 22 Rabbitohs 28.60
7 Titans vs. Knights Mar 22 Knights -8.80
8 Roosters vs. Panthers Mar 23 Roosters 8.50

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 7.89 10.00 -2.10
Crusaders 7.86 10.42 -2.60
Hurricanes 5.27 2.89 2.40
Brumbies 5.03 2.20 2.80
Chiefs 4.09 2.23 1.90
Sharks 2.89 3.91 -1.00
Bulls 2.81 2.88 -0.10
Stormers 2.70 1.68 1.00
Blues -0.07 1.44 -1.50
Highlanders -0.91 -2.54 1.60
Lions -4.36 -3.39 -1.00
Force -5.73 -4.67 -1.10
Cheetahs -6.12 -5.55 -0.60
Rebels -6.64 -9.53 2.90
Reds -7.72 -4.98 -2.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 34 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 13 30 – 23 9.80 TRUE
2 Force vs. Rebels Mar 13 17 – 21 6.20 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Lions Mar 14 34 – 6 15.10 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 14 26 – 19 -5.90 FALSE
5 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 14 0 – 29 -6.20 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 14 19 – 28 4.80 FALSE
7 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Mar 14 10 – 27 -3.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 20 Hurricanes -2.20
2 Rebels vs. Lions Mar 20 Rebels 2.20
3 Crusaders vs. Cheetahs Mar 21 Crusaders 18.50
4 Bulls vs. Force Mar 21 Bulls 13.00
5 Sharks vs. Chiefs Mar 21 Sharks 3.30
6 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Mar 22 Waratahs 6.90

 

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March 10, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 14.70 13.06 1.60
Roosters 10.95 9.09 1.90
Cowboys 7.66 9.52 -1.90
Storm 4.72 4.36 0.40
Panthers 3.65 3.69 -0.00
Broncos 2.40 4.03 -1.60
Warriors 2.40 3.07 -0.70
Knights 0.39 -0.28 0.70
Bulldogs 0.25 0.21 0.00
Sea Eagles 0.21 2.68 -2.50
Dragons -2.10 -1.74 -0.40
Eels -4.73 -7.19 2.50
Raiders -6.84 -7.09 0.20
Titans -8.84 -8.20 -0.60
Sharks -11.01 -10.76 -0.30
Wests Tigers -12.49 -13.13 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Mar 05 6 – 36 -6.00 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Mar 06 42 – 12 -6.90 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Roosters Mar 07 4 – 28 3.40 FALSE
4 Knights vs. Warriors Mar 07 24 – 14 0.70 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 07 18 – 19 7.90 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 08 24 – 18 6.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Raiders Mar 08 20 – 24 -0.70 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 09 4 – 12 -3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Eels Mar 13 Bulldogs 8.00
2 Sharks vs. Broncos Mar 13 Broncos -10.40
3 Cowboys vs. Knights Mar 14 Cowboys 10.30
4 Panthers vs. Titans Mar 14 Panthers 15.50
5 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 14 Storm -1.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 15 Rabbitohs 6.70
7 Raiders vs. Warriors Mar 15 Warriors -5.20
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Mar 16 Dragons -7.40

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Waratahs 8.68 10.00 -1.30
Crusaders 7.07 10.42 -3.30
Hurricanes 5.52 2.89 2.60
Brumbies 3.75 2.20 1.50
Stormers 3.54 1.68 1.90
Chiefs 3.25 2.23 1.00
Bulls 2.81 2.88 -0.10
Sharks 2.06 3.91 -1.90
Blues -0.33 1.44 -1.80
Highlanders -1.70 -2.54 0.80
Lions -3.57 -3.39 -0.20
Force -5.08 -4.67 -0.40
Cheetahs -5.29 -5.55 0.30
Reds -6.43 -4.98 -1.40
Rebels -7.29 -9.53 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 06 17 – 20 10.60 FALSE
2 Brumbies vs. Force Mar 06 27 – 15 13.00 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Lions Mar 07 10 – 13 9.30 FALSE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 07 5 – 23 -10.10 TRUE
5 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 07 20 – 39 -2.10 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Sharks Mar 07 29 – 13 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Blues Mar 13 Hurricanes 9.80
2 Force vs. Rebels Mar 13 Force 6.20
3 Crusaders vs. Lions Mar 14 Crusaders 15.10
4 Highlanders vs. Waratahs Mar 14 Waratahs -5.90
5 Reds vs. Brumbies Mar 14 Brumbies -6.20
6 Stormers vs. Chiefs Mar 14 Stormers 4.80
7 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Mar 14 Sharks -3.30

 

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