Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

May 20, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.89 10.42 -1.50
Waratahs 6.20 10.00 -3.80
Hurricanes 5.54 2.89 2.60
Chiefs 4.44 2.23 2.20
Brumbies 4.16 2.20 2.00
Highlanders 2.77 -2.54 5.30
Bulls 2.73 2.88 -0.10
Stormers 2.35 1.68 0.70
Blues -0.44 1.44 -1.90
Sharks -1.94 3.91 -5.90
Lions -3.00 -3.39 0.40
Rebels -4.59 -9.53 4.90
Force -4.80 -4.67 -0.10
Cheetahs -6.69 -5.55 -1.10
Reds -8.61 -4.98 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Bulls May 15 23 – 18 0.70 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 15 46 – 29 -2.20 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 16 22 – 18 5.30 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks May 16 33 – 18 12.10 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Brumbies May 16 20 – 30 -1.60 TRUE
6 Cheetahs vs. Highlanders May 16 24 – 45 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Bulls May 22 Chiefs 6.20
2 Reds vs. Sharks May 22 Sharks -2.20
3 Blues vs. Hurricanes May 23 Hurricanes -2.00
4 Waratahs vs. Crusaders May 23 Waratahs 1.80
5 Force vs. Highlanders May 23 Highlanders -3.10
6 Cheetahs vs. Lions May 23 Cheetahs 0.30
7 Stormers vs. Rebels May 23 Stormers 11.40

 

May 13, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.69 9.09 -0.40
Cowboys 6.99 9.52 -2.50
Rabbitohs 6.22 13.06 -6.80
Storm 4.95 4.36 0.60
Broncos 4.20 4.03 0.20
Dragons 1.44 -1.74 3.20
Panthers 0.93 3.69 -2.80
Warriors 0.82 3.07 -2.30
Raiders -1.22 -7.09 5.90
Bulldogs -1.66 0.21 -1.90
Knights -1.83 -0.28 -1.60
Sea Eagles -2.02 2.68 -4.70
Sharks -5.85 -10.76 4.90
Titans -6.74 -8.20 1.50
Wests Tigers -6.74 -13.13 6.40
Eels -6.85 -7.19 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 08 8 – 5 6.80 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 08 36 – 4 16.20 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs May 09 23 – 16 12.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 09 56 – 16 3.70 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Warriors May 09 16 – 20 -2.40 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Storm May 10 10 – 28 -7.30 TRUE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights May 10 30 – 28 3.00 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 11 16 – 10 8.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Roosters May 15 Roosters -7.30
2 Cowboys vs. Broncos May 15 Cowboys 5.80
3 Eels vs. Warriors May 16 Warriors -3.70
4 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 16 Storm 1.70
5 Titans vs. Sharks May 16 Titans 2.10
6 Dragons vs. Raiders May 17 Dragons 5.70
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers May 17 Knights 7.90
8 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers May 18 Sea Eagles 0.10

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 14

By

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.89 10.42 -1.50
Waratahs 5.94 10.00 -4.10
Hurricanes 5.66 2.89 2.80
Chiefs 4.32 2.23 2.10
Brumbies 3.60 2.20 1.40
Bulls 3.04 2.88 0.20
Stormers 2.35 1.68 0.70
Highlanders 1.72 -2.54 4.30
Blues -0.75 1.44 -2.20
Sharks -1.68 3.91 -5.60
Lions -2.45 -3.39 0.90
Rebels -3.48 -9.53 6.00
Force -4.80 -4.67 -0.10
Cheetahs -5.64 -5.55 -0.10
Reds -9.72 -4.98 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 86 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 08 58 – 17 20.80 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 08 42 – 22 -0.60 FALSE
3 Hurricanes vs. Sharks May 09 32 – 24 12.50 TRUE
4 Force vs. Waratahs May 09 18 – 11 -8.60 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 09 28 – 23 -0.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies May 09 25 – 24 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Bulls May 15 Blues 0.70
2 Reds vs. Rebels May 15 Rebels -2.20
3 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs May 16 Hurricanes 5.30
4 Waratahs vs. Sharks May 16 Waratahs 12.10
5 Lions vs. Brumbies May 16 Brumbies -1.60
6 Cheetahs vs. Highlanders May 16 Highlanders -2.90

 

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May 6, 2015

Super 15 Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.73 10.42 -2.70
Waratahs 6.87 10.00 -3.10
Hurricanes 5.98 2.89 3.10
Chiefs 4.32 2.23 2.10
Brumbies 3.36 2.20 1.20
Bulls 3.04 2.88 0.20
Stormers 2.60 1.68 0.90
Highlanders 2.09 -2.54 4.60
Blues 0.43 1.44 -1.00
Sharks -2.00 3.91 -5.90
Lions -2.83 -3.39 0.60
Rebels -4.66 -9.53 4.90
Cheetahs -5.64 -5.55 -0.10
Force -5.74 -4.67 -1.10
Reds -8.56 -4.98 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 01 48 – 15 5.60 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 01 10 – 13 1.10 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Force May 02 41 – 24 9.70 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders May 02 29 – 23 1.60 TRUE
5 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 02 16 – 15 -5.30 FALSE
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers May 02 25 – 17 -5.90 FALSE
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 02 35 – 33 11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Reds May 08 Crusaders 20.80
2 Rebels vs. Blues May 08 Blues -0.60
3 Hurricanes vs. Sharks May 09 Hurricanes 12.50
4 Force vs. Waratahs May 09 Waratahs -8.60
5 Lions vs. Highlanders May 09 Highlanders -0.40
6 Stormers vs. Brumbies May 09 Stormers 3.70

 

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April 29, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 7.59 9.09 -1.50
Cowboys 7.39 9.52 -2.10
Rabbitohs 6.39 13.06 -6.70
Broncos 4.48 4.03 0.40
Storm 4.19 4.36 -0.20
Dragons 1.27 -1.74 3.00
Warriors 0.70 3.07 -2.40
Panthers 0.64 3.69 -3.10
Knights -1.91 -0.28 -1.60
Sea Eagles -1.94 2.68 -4.60
Bulldogs -2.06 0.21 -2.30
Raiders -3.64 -7.09 3.40
Titans -4.31 -8.20 3.90
Wests Tigers -5.64 -13.13 7.50
Sharks -5.72 -10.76 5.00
Eels -6.09 -7.19 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 24 14 – 38 11.30 FALSE
2 Broncos vs. Eels Apr 25 28 – 16 13.90 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Cowboys Apr 25 24 – 26 -7.00 TRUE
4 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 12 – 14 11.20 FALSE
5 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 10 – 12 11.00 FALSE
6 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 28 – 32 11.10 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Sharks Apr 26 26 – 18 9.60 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 26 22 – 30 16.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 08 Broncos 6.80
2 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers May 08 Roosters 16.20
3 Cowboys vs. Bulldogs May 09 Cowboys 12.40
4 Raiders vs. Titans May 09 Raiders 3.70
5 Sharks vs. Warriors May 09 Warriors -2.40
6 Eels vs. Storm May 10 Storm -7.30
7 Sea Eagles vs. Knights May 10 Sea Eagles 3.00
8 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons May 11 Rabbitohs 8.10

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.05 10.42 -2.40
Waratahs 6.58 10.00 -3.40
Hurricanes 5.66 2.89 2.80
Chiefs 4.75 2.23 2.50
Brumbies 3.65 2.20 1.40
Bulls 3.63 2.88 0.80
Stormers 3.44 1.68 1.80
Highlanders 0.59 -2.54 3.10
Blues -0.06 1.44 -1.50
Sharks -0.50 3.91 -4.40
Lions -3.42 -3.39 -0.00
Rebels -5.09 -9.53 4.40
Force -5.25 -4.67 -0.60
Cheetahs -6.48 -5.55 -0.90
Reds -8.56 -4.98 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 73 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Force Apr 24 35 – 27 15.50 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Apr 24 31 – 18 6.70 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 29 – 15 11.70 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 25 18 – 16 17.50 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 25 34 – 29 7.50 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 25 15 – 13 4.20 TRUE
7 Reds vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 19 – 35 -8.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Sharks May 01 Highlanders 5.60
2 Brumbies vs. Waratahs May 01 Brumbies 1.10
3 Blues vs. Force May 02 Blues 9.70
4 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders May 02 Hurricanes 1.60
5 Rebels vs. Chiefs May 02 Chiefs -5.30
6 Cheetahs vs. Stormers May 02 Stormers -5.90
7 Bulls vs. Lions May 02 Bulls 11.00

 

April 22, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.52 9.09 -0.60
Rabbitohs 8.05 13.06 -5.00
Cowboys 7.76 9.52 -1.80
Storm 5.11 4.36 0.80
Broncos 4.63 4.03 0.60
Warriors 1.75 3.07 -1.30
Panthers 0.77 3.69 -2.90
Dragons 0.35 -1.74 2.10
Bulldogs 0.31 0.21 0.10
Knights -2.28 -0.28 -2.00
Sea Eagles -2.85 2.68 -5.50
Raiders -5.31 -7.09 1.80
Titans -5.36 -8.20 2.80
Sharks -5.85 -10.76 4.90
Eels -6.24 -7.19 0.90
Wests Tigers -8.00 -13.13 5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.2%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 17 28 – 16 5.20 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Apr 17 12 – 10 -1.90 FALSE
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Apr 18 28 – 24 11.00 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 18 17 – 16 -0.70 FALSE
5 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 18 32 – 6 -7.60 FALSE
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 19 22 – 28 9.10 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 19 22 – 30 1.70 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Apr 20 18 – 10 -13.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Apr 24 Bulldogs 11.30
2 Broncos vs. Eels Apr 25 Broncos 13.90
3 Knights vs. Cowboys Apr 25 Cowboys -7.00
4 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 11.20
5 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Apr 25 Storm 11.00
6 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 25 Warriors 11.10
7 Panthers vs. Sharks Apr 26 Panthers 9.60
8 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders Apr 26 Rabbitohs 16.40

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.84 10.42 -2.60
Waratahs 7.50 10.00 -2.50
Chiefs 5.25 2.23 3.00
Hurricanes 5.18 2.89 2.30
Stormers 3.64 1.68 2.00
Bulls 3.43 2.88 0.60
Brumbies 3.22 2.20 1.00
Highlanders 1.02 -2.54 3.60
Blues 0.15 1.44 -1.30
Sharks -0.50 3.91 -4.40
Lions -3.19 -3.39 0.20
Force -5.75 -4.67 -1.10
Rebels -6.02 -9.53 3.50
Cheetahs -6.71 -5.55 -1.20
Reds -8.08 -4.98 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 66 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Apr 17 9 – 26 9.50 FALSE
2 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 18 24 – 29 3.30 FALSE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 18 30 – 24 4.60 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Apr 18 8 – 13 15.60 FALSE
5 Force vs. Stormers Apr 18 6 – 13 -4.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 18 10 – 17 1.10 FALSE
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds Apr 18 17 – 18 6.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Force Apr 24 Chiefs 15.50
2 Brumbies vs. Highlanders Apr 24 Brumbies 6.70
3 Crusaders vs. Blues Apr 25 Crusaders 11.70
4 Waratahs vs. Rebels Apr 25 Waratahs 17.50
5 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 25 Lions 7.50
6 Stormers vs. Bulls Apr 25 Stormers 4.20
7 Reds vs. Hurricanes Apr 26 Hurricanes -8.80

 

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April 15, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rabbitohs 9.55 13.06 -3.50
Roosters 8.65 9.09 -0.40
Cowboys 8.27 9.52 -1.30
Storm 4.98 4.36 0.60
Broncos 4.92 4.03 0.90
Panthers 3.02 3.69 -0.70
Warriors 1.24 3.07 -1.80
Dragons 0.06 -1.74 1.80
Bulldogs -0.19 0.21 -0.40
Knights -1.23 -0.28 -1.00
Sea Eagles -2.36 2.68 -5.00
Raiders -6.00 -7.09 1.10
Eels -7.29 -7.19 -0.10
Wests Tigers -7.31 -13.13 5.80
Sharks -7.35 -10.76 3.40
Titans -7.62 -8.20 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Apr 10 22 – 18 -1.50 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Knights Apr 10 22 – 6 -6.20 FALSE
3 Eels vs. Titans Apr 11 16 – 38 7.30 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 11 22 – 12 8.10 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Apr 11 32 – 22 13.00 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 12 31 – 6 -0.20 FALSE
7 Raiders vs. Storm Apr 12 10 – 14 -8.70 TRUE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Apr 13 12 – 30 7.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Apr 17 Bulldogs 5.20
2 Dragons vs. Broncos Apr 17 Broncos -1.90
3 Cowboys vs. Warriors Apr 18 Cowboys 11.00
4 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 18 Roosters -0.70
5 Titans vs. Panthers Apr 18 Panthers -7.60
6 Knights vs. Eels Apr 19 Knights 9.10
7 Wests Tigers vs. Raiders Apr 19 Wests Tigers 1.70
8 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Apr 20 Rabbitohs -13.90

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.30 10.42 -1.10
Waratahs 6.96 10.00 -3.00
Hurricanes 5.72 2.89 2.80
Brumbies 4.40 2.20 2.20
Chiefs 3.79 2.23 1.60
Stormers 3.41 1.68 1.70
Bulls 2.89 2.88 0.00
Highlanders 0.90 -2.54 3.40
Blues 0.27 1.44 -1.20
Sharks 0.04 3.91 -3.90
Lions -3.19 -3.39 0.20
Force -5.51 -4.67 -0.80
Cheetahs -6.18 -5.55 -0.60
Rebels -7.20 -9.53 2.30
Reds -8.60 -4.98 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 59 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Brumbies Apr 10 16 – 14 0.00 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Apr 11 20 – 25 14.70 FALSE
3 Waratahs vs. Stormers Apr 11 18 – 32 10.80 FALSE
4 Force vs. Cheetahs Apr 11 15 – 24 7.10 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Reds Apr 11 43 – 22 15.20 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 11 23 – 21 0.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Apr 17 Crusaders 9.50
2 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Apr 18 Hurricanes 3.30
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Apr 18 Highlanders 4.60
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Apr 18 Brumbies 15.60
5 Force vs. Stormers Apr 18 Stormers -4.40
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Apr 18 Sharks 1.10
7 Cheetahs vs. Reds Apr 18 Cheetahs 6.90

 

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