Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 27, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.23 4.57 1.70
Crusaders 6.07 8.80 -2.70
Chiefs 4.72 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 4.45 4.12 0.30
Waratahs 4.38 1.67 2.70
Bulls 4.20 4.87 -0.70
Stormers 1.68 4.38 -2.70
Reds -0.48 0.58 -1.10
Hurricanes -0.57 -1.44 0.90
Blues -1.59 -1.92 0.30
Highlanders -3.50 -4.48 1.00
Cheetahs -3.66 0.12 -3.80
Lions -3.94 -6.93 3.00
Force -4.07 -5.37 1.30
Rebels -6.93 -6.36 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 21 35 – 31 -1.10 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 21 32 – 8 12.40 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Cheetahs Mar 22 40 – 30 5.40 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Stormers Mar 22 25 – 15 6.20 TRUE
5 Force vs. Chiefs Mar 22 18 – 15 -5.90 FALSE
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 22 23 – 20 0.10 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 22 23 – 19 -0.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 28 Crusaders 9.10
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 28 Brumbies -8.90
3 Blues vs. Highlanders Mar 29 Blues 4.40
4 Reds vs. Stormers Mar 29 Reds 1.80
5 Bulls vs. Chiefs Mar 29 Bulls 3.50
6 Sharks vs. Waratahs Mar 29 Sharks 5.90

 

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March 19, 2014

Revised Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

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I had a mistake in my code so that the country assigned to the Sharks was incorrect so the previously posted prediction for the Bulls versus Sharks game was wrongly calculated. I now have the Sharks to win by 0.10 point.

All the other predictions for the round are unchanged.

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.52 4.57 2.00
Crusaders 6.07 8.80 -2.70
Chiefs 5.30 4.38 0.90
Brumbies 4.19 4.12 0.10
Bulls 3.92 4.87 -1.00
Waratahs 3.65 1.67 2.00
Stormers 1.95 4.38 -2.40
Hurricanes -0.22 -1.44 1.20
Reds -0.28 0.58 -0.90
Blues -1.90 -1.92 0.00
Cheetahs -3.35 0.12 -3.50
Highlanders -3.85 -4.48 0.60
Lions -4.15 -6.93 2.80
Force -4.65 -5.37 0.70
Rebels -6.20 -6.36 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Stormers Mar 14 36 – 20 6.10 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Mar 14 19 – 25 -8.70 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 60 – 27 3.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Force Mar 15 29 – 31 5.80 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 28 – 23 2.70 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 15 39 – 36 1.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 15 26 – 6 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 21 Hurricanes -1.10
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 21 Waratahs 12.40
3 Blues vs. Cheetahs Mar 22 Blues 5.40
4 Brumbies vs. Stormers Mar 22 Brumbies 6.20
5 Force vs. Chiefs Mar 22 Chiefs -5.90
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 22 Lions 0.10
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 22 Sharks -0.10

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.30 12.35 -0.00
Rabbitohs 8.09 5.82 2.30
Sea Eagles 8.07 9.10 -1.00
Storm 7.19 7.64 -0.40
Cowboys 4.04 6.01 -2.00
Bulldogs 3.73 2.46 1.30
Knights 1.16 5.23 -4.10
Panthers 0.84 -2.48 3.30
Titans -1.49 1.45 -2.90
Sharks -1.60 2.32 -3.90
Broncos -2.37 -4.69 2.30
Dragons -4.18 -7.57 3.40
Warriors -5.81 -0.72 -5.10
Raiders -5.86 -8.99 3.10
Wests Tigers -8.36 -11.26 2.90
Eels -17.54 -18.45 0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 37.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 14 – 12 5.20 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 14 16 – 12 -3.40 FALSE
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Mar 15 12 – 31 7.40 FALSE
4 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 15 18 – 17 13.10 TRUE
5 Roosters vs. Eels Mar 15 56 – 4 30.50 TRUE
6 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 12 – 42 19.40 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 16 20 – 26 15.30 FALSE
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Mar 17 42 – 4 4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Mar 21 Rabbitohs -12.00
2 Broncos vs. Roosters Mar 21 Roosters -10.20
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Mar 22 Panthers 1.60
4 Sharks vs. Dragons Mar 22 Sharks 7.10
5 Cowboys vs. Warriors Mar 22 Cowboys 14.40
6 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 23 Sea Eagles 30.10
7 Raiders vs. Titans Mar 23 Raiders 0.10
8 Storm vs. Knights Mar 24 Storm 10.50

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 6.52 4.57 2.00
Crusaders 6.07 8.80 -2.70
Chiefs 5.30 4.38 0.90
Brumbies 4.19 4.12 0.10
Bulls 3.92 4.87 -1.00
Waratahs 3.65 1.67 2.00
Stormers 1.95 4.38 -2.40
Hurricanes -0.22 -1.44 1.20
Reds -0.28 0.58 -0.90
Blues -1.90 -1.92 0.00
Cheetahs -3.35 0.12 -3.50
Highlanders -3.85 -4.48 0.60
Lions -4.15 -6.93 2.80
Force -4.65 -5.37 0.70
Rebels -6.20 -6.36 0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 29 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Stormers Mar 14 36 – 20 6.10 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Mar 14 19 – 25 -8.70 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 60 – 27 3.80 TRUE
4 Highlanders vs. Force Mar 15 29 – 31 5.80 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 28 – 23 2.70 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 15 39 – 36 1.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 15 26 – 6 7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Mar 21 Hurricanes -1.10
2 Waratahs vs. Rebels Mar 21 Waratahs 12.40
3 Blues vs. Cheetahs Mar 22 Blues 5.40
4 Brumbies vs. Stormers Mar 22 Brumbies 6.20
5 Force vs. Chiefs Mar 22 Chiefs -5.90
6 Lions vs. Reds Mar 22 Lions 0.10
7 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 22 Sharks -0.10

 

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March 13, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 2

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The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

This week I don’t have full details because I have limited internet access and am having to copy the details from my computer.
 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 14 Sea Eagles 5.20
2 Broncos vs. Cowboys Mar 14 Cowboys -3.40
3 Warriors vs. Dragons Mar 15 Warriors 7.40
4 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 15 Storm 13.10
5 Roosters vs Eels Mar 15 Roosters 30.50
6 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Mar 16 Titans 19.40
7 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 16 Knights 15.30
8 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Mar 17 Bulldogs 4.10

 

Super 15 Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

  Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.27 8.80 -2.50
Sharks 5.75 4.57 1.20
Chiefs 4.67 4.38 0.30
Brumbies 4.02 4.12 -0.10
Bulls 3.92 4.87 -1.00
Waratahs 3.82 1.67 2.20
Stormers 2.58 4.38 -1.80
Reds 0.49 0.58 -0.10
Cheetahs -1.68 0.12 -1.80
Blues -1.79 -1.92 0.10
Hurricanes -1.89 -1.44 -0.50
Highlanders -3.34 -4.48 1.10
Lions -4.26 -6.93 2.70
Force -5.16 -5.37 0.20
Rebels -6.40 -6.36 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.6%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

  Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 07 21- 29 -1.00 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Cheetahs Mar 07 43 – 33 5.60 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 08 14 – 13 8.70 TRUE
4 Force vs. Rebels Mar 08 32 – 7 0.9 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 08 38 – 22 8.80 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 08 37 – 23 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

  Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Stormers Mar 14 Chiefs 6.10
2 Rebels vs. Crusaders Mar 14 Crusaders -8.70
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs Mar 15 Hurricanes 3.80
4 Highlanders vs. Force Mar 15 Highlanders 5.80
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Mar 15 Brumbies 2.70
6 Lions vs. Blues Mar 15 Lions 1.50
7 Sharks vs. Reds Mar 15 Sharks 7.80

 

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March 2, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

My predictions are early this week and may not appear next week unless I can get some internet access while travelling.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 6.77 8.80 -2.00
Sharks 5.76 4.57 1.20
Chiefs 4.67 4.38 0.30
Waratahs 3.82 1.67 2.20
Brumbies 3.56 4.12 -0.60
Bulls 3.44 4.87 -1.40
Stormers 2.08 4.38 -2.30
Reds 0.18 0.58 -0.40
Blues -1.32 -1.92 0.60
Cheetahs -1.38 0.12 -1.50
Hurricanes -1.43 -1.44 0.00
Highlanders -3.34 -4.48 1.10
Lions -4.26 -6.93 2.70
Rebels -5.00 -6.36 1.40
Force -6.56 -5.37 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 28 35 – 24 -7.80 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Feb 28 35 – 14 -2.30 FALSE
3 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 19 – 18 8.50 TRUE
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 01 21 – 19 11.70 TRUE
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 01 32 – 5 3.40 TRUE
6 Force vs. Brumbies Mar 01 14 – 27 -6.80 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 01 25 – 17 10.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Mar 07 Brumbies -1.00
2 Reds vs. Cheetahs Mar 07 Reds 5.60
3 Crusaders vs. Stormers Mar 08 Crusaders 8.70
4 Force vs. Rebels Mar 08 Force 0.90
5 Bulls vs. Blues Mar 08 Bulls 8.80
6 Sharks vs. Lions Mar 08 Sharks 14.00

 

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February 28, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the seaso

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 12.35 12.35 0.00
Sea Eagles 9.10 9.10 0.00
Storm 7.64 7.64 0.00
Cowboys 6.01 6.01 -0.00
Rabbitohs 5.82 5.82 0.00
Knights 5.23 5.23 0.00
Bulldogs 2.46 2.46 -0.00
Sharks 2.32 2.32 -0.00
Titans 1.45 1.45 -0.00
Warriors -0.72 -0.72 -0.00
Panthers -2.48 -2.48 0.00
Broncos -4.69 -4.69 -0.00
Dragons -7.57 -7.57 0.00
Raiders -8.99 -8.99 0.00
Wests Tigers -11.26 -11.26 0.00
Eels -18.45 -18.45 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Mar 06 Roosters -2.00
2 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Mar 07 Bulldogs 11.70
3 Panthers vs. Knights Mar 08 Knights -3.20
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Mar 08 Sea Eagles 6.00
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 08 Cowboys 19.50
6 Dragons vs. Wests Tigers Mar 09 Dragons 8.20
7 Eels vs. Warriors Mar 09 Warriors -13.20
8 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 10 Sharks 5.40

 

February 25, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 7.89 8.80 -0.90
Sharks 5.84 4.57 1.30
Chiefs 5.29 4.38 0.90
Bulls 3.55 4.87 -1.30
Brumbies 3.15 4.12 -1.00
Stormers 2.56 4.38 -1.80
Waratahs 2.44 1.67 0.80
Reds 1.56 0.58 1.00
Cheetahs -0.02 0.12 -0.10
Hurricanes -1.91 -1.44 -0.50
Blues -2.44 -1.92 -0.50
Highlanders -3.96 -4.48 0.50
Lions -4.45 -6.93 2.50
Force -6.14 -5.37 -0.80
Rebels -6.36 -6.36 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 3 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 33.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 21 10 – 18 6.90 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Feb 21 15 – 9 -2.10 FALSE
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 29 – 21 -0.10 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Feb 22 17 – 27 6.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Hurricanes Feb 22 27 – 9 10.80 TRUE
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 22 34 – 10 -8.10 FALSE
7 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 23 43 – 21 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blues vs. Crusaders Feb 28 Crusaders -7.80
2 Rebels vs. Cheetahs Feb 28 Cheetahs -2.30
3 Stormers vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 Stormers 8.50
4 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 01 Chiefs 11.70
5 Waratahs vs. Reds Mar 01 Waratahs 3.40
6 Force vs. Brumbies Mar 01 Brumbies -6.80
7 Bulls vs. Lions Mar 01 Bulls 10.50

 

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February 19, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.80 8.80 -0.00
Sharks 5.36 4.57 0.80
Stormers 4.38 4.38 -0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Brumbies 4.12 4.12 0.00
Bulls 4.08 4.87 -0.80
Waratahs 1.67 1.67 0.00
Reds 0.58 0.58 -0.00
Cheetahs -0.54 0.12 -0.70
Hurricanes -1.44 -1.44 -0.00
Blues -1.92 -1.92 -0.00
Highlanders -4.48 -4.48 0.00
Force -5.37 -5.37 -0.00
Lions -6.27 -6.93 0.70
Rebels -6.36 -6.36 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 2 matches played, 1 of which was correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 15 20 – 21 9.60 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Feb 15 31 – 16 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 21 Crusaders 6.90
2 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Feb 21 Bulls -2.10
3 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 22 Blues -0.10
4 Brumbies vs. Reds Feb 22 Brumbies 6.00
5 Sharks vs. Hurricanes Feb 22 Sharks 10.80
6 Lions vs. Stormers Feb 22 Stormers -8.10
7 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 23 Waratahs 9.50

 

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