Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

February 14, 2014

Super 15 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons. Still the Crusaders have a high rating. Despite being tempted to arbitrarily change their rating, I have stuck with the formula. You may wish to downgrade them. The replacement of the Kings by the Lions provides another problem. In the past I have given a rating of -10 to an unknown team entering the competition, and this has seemed to provide reasonable predictions. The Lions do have a rating from when they were previously in the competition so I have used that rating. Again, you may wish to lower their rating.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.80 8.80 -0.00
Bulls 4.87 4.87 -0.00
Sharks 4.57 4.57 0.00
Stormers 4.38 4.38 -0.00
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Brumbies 4.12 4.12 0.00
Waratahs 1.67 1.67 0.00
Reds 0.58 0.58 -0.00
Cheetahs 0.12 0.12 -0.00
Hurricanes -1.44 -1.44 -0.00
Blues -1.92 -1.92 -0.00
Highlanders -4.48 -4.48 0.00
Force -5.37 -5.37 -0.00
Rebels -6.36 -6.36 -0.00
Lions -6.93 -6.93 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 15 Cheetahs 9.60
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Feb 15 Sharks 2.20

 

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October 23, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

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Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 22.49 23.14 -0.70
Wellington 13.07 6.93 6.10
Auckland 7.57 9.02 -1.50
Tasman 5.25 -6.29 11.50
Counties Manukau 3.08 4.36 -1.30
Hawke’s Bay 0.85 -6.72 7.60
Waikato -0.32 5.25 -5.60
Otago -2.67 -4.44 1.80
Taranaki -3.53 3.92 -7.50
Bay of Plenty -5.56 -1.96 -3.60
Southland -8.61 -11.86 3.20
Northland -10.45 -8.26 -2.20
North Harbour -11.70 -7.43 -4.30
Manawatu -12.74 -8.97 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

There is a problem with the code I have been using for assessing performance, due to the unusual schedule in the ITM Cup, where some teams play more than one game in a week. I haven’t had time to alter the code so am omitting this section for the time being. Look at last week’s post to see how the predictions went. For the record, there were 3 games correct, out of 4 games played last week

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 25 Tasman 8.90
2 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 26 Canterbury -4.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the team ratings prior to the Currie Cup Final, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 5.29 4.47 0.80
Sharks 4.03 3.24 0.80
Cheetahs 0.51 -2.74 3.30
Blue Bulls -0.35 0.59 -0.90
Lions -0.67 -1.22 0.50
Griquas -10.97 -6.48 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 19 33 – 16 12.70 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Oct 19 33 – 22 11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Sharks Oct 26 Western Province 8.80

 

October 15, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

By

Team Ratings for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the team ratings prior to the ITM Cup Finals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 21.49 23.14 -1.70
Wellington 11.49 6.93 4.60
Auckland 8.57 9.02 -0.50
Tasman 4.99 -6.29 11.30
Counties Manukau 4.65 4.36 0.30
Hawke’s Bay 0.28 -6.72 7.00
Waikato -0.32 5.25 -5.60
Otago -2.10 -4.44 2.30
Taranaki -3.53 3.92 -7.50
Bay of Plenty -5.56 -1.96 -3.60
Southland -8.36 -11.86 3.50
Northland -10.45 -8.26 -2.20
North Harbour -11.70 -7.43 -4.30
Manawatu -12.74 -8.97 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

There is a problem with the code I have been using for assessing performance, due to the unusual schedule in the ITM Cup, where some teams play more than one game in a week. I haven’t had time to alter the code so am omitting this section for the time being. Look at last week’s post to see how the predictions went. For the record, there were 6 games correct, out of 8 games played last week

Predictions for the ITM Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the ITM Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Oct 18 Wellington 11.30
2 Canterbury vs. Auckland Oct 19 Canterbury 17.40
3 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 19 Tasman 17.90
4 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 20 Otago 2.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

By

Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

Here are the team ratings prior to the SemiFinals, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Province 4.90 4.47 0.40
Sharks 4.04 3.24 0.80
Cheetahs 0.51 -2.74 3.30
Lions -0.28 -1.22 0.90
Blue Bulls -0.35 0.59 -0.90
Griquas -10.97 -6.48 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 12 35 – 26 20.20 TRUE
2 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 12 22 – 7 6.90 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 12 13 – 17 9.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 19 Western Province 12.70
2 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Oct 19 Sharks 11.00

 

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October 9, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 20.60 23.14 -2.50
Wellington 13.18 6.93 6.20
Auckland 9.54 9.02 0.50
Counties Manukau 4.60 4.36 0.20
Tasman 3.02 -6.29 9.30
Waikato -0.35 5.25 -5.60
Hawke’s Bay -1.41 -6.72 5.30
Taranaki -3.50 3.92 -7.40
Otago -3.73 -4.44 0.70
Bay of Plenty -5.43 -1.96 -3.50
Southland -8.31 -11.86 3.50
Northland -9.92 -8.26 -1.70
Manawatu -10.76 -8.97 -1.80
North Harbour -10.82 -7.43 -3.40

 

Performance So Far

There is a problem with the code I have been using for assessing performance, due to the unusual schedule in the ITM Cup, where some teams play more than one game in a week. I haven’t had time to alter the code so am omitting this section for the time being. Look at last week’s post to see how the predictions went. For the record, there were 7 games correct, out of 8 games played last week

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 09 Otago -1.70
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Wellington Oct 10 Wellington -10.10
3 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Oct 11 Counties Manukau 17.40
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Oct 12 Canterbury -26.90
5 Northland vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 12 Northland 0.00
6 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 12 Waikato 7.70
7 Otago vs. Auckland Oct 13 Auckland -8.80
8 Tasman vs. Manawatu Oct 13 Tasman 18.30

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 10

By

The Currie Cup continues to be a nightmare for prediction. In past seasons there appeared to be a large home ground advantage, but not this year. There have been some very high scores and games won away from home starting with Griquas beating the Sharks in Durban in the first week. Griquas have subsequently lost all their games, but have 5 points from loss bonuses, and 1 four try bonus. They then have had 52 points against them in each of the last two games. (Do they still have any supporters after that sequence of games?) One reason for the difficulty of prediction is possibly that the Lions, Cheetahs and Bulls are all fairly evenly matched, so that any one might beat any other on a given day, no matter whether home or away.

Team Ratings for Round 10

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.20 3.24 2.00
Western Province 3.74 4.47 -0.70
Lions 0.73 -1.22 1.90
Blue Bulls 0.38 0.59 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.22 -2.74 2.50
Griquas -11.98 -6.48 -5.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 48.1%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 05 36 – 23 10.00 TRUE
2 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 04 16 – 18 3.70 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Oct 05 21 – 52 1.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Griquas Oct 12 Lions 20.20
2 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 12 Cheetahs 6.90
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 12 Sharks 9.00

 

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October 2, 2013

ITM Cup Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 8, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 21.12 23.14 -2.00
Wellington 11.86 6.93 4.90
Auckland 10.86 9.02 1.80
Counties Manukau 4.08 4.36 -0.30
Waikato 2.13 5.25 -3.10
Tasman -0.16 -6.29 6.10
Hawke’s Bay -1.94 -6.72 4.80
Taranaki -3.03 3.92 -7.00
Otago -4.82 -4.44 -0.40
Bay of Plenty -5.20 -1.96 -3.20
Southland -7.78 -11.86 4.10
Northland -9.69 -8.26 -1.40
North Harbour -9.73 -7.43 -2.30
Manawatu -10.98 -8.97 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.9%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Sep 25 72 – 7 35.20 TRUE
2 Northland vs. Tasman Sep 26 13 – 28 -3.10 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 27 14 – 19 -5.30 TRUE
4 Otago vs. Southland Sep 28 32 – 38 10.00 FALSE
5 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Sep 28 12 – 6 -5.30 FALSE
6 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 28 39 – 19 -10.70 FALSE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Sep 29 55 – 10 6.10 TRUE
8 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 29 30 – 31 -5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Waikato Oct 02 Tasman 2.20
2 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 Hawke’s Bay -1.30
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Oct 04 Manawatu 3.20
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 05 Waikato -2.80
5 North Harbour vs. Otago Oct 05 Otago -0.40
6 Wellington vs. Auckland Oct 05 Wellington 5.50
7 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 06 Canterbury 21.50
8 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 06 Taranaki 1.60

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

Here are the team ratings prior to Round 9, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 4.69 3.24 1.50
Western Province 3.46 4.47 -1.00
Lions 1.00 -1.22 2.20
Blue Bulls 0.89 0.59 0.30
Cheetahs -3.15 -2.74 -0.40
Griquas -9.04 -6.48 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Sep 27 27 – 29 1.50 FALSE
2 Lions vs. Sharks Sep 27 25 – 31 6.00 FALSE
3 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Sep 28 10 – 52 6.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 04 Western Province 10.00
2 Blue Bulls vs. Sharks Oct 04 Blue Bulls 3.70
3 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Oct 05 Griquas 1.60

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 13.52 -5.68 19.20
Sea Eagles 8.65 4.78 3.90
Storm 8.36 9.73 -1.40
Cowboys 6.60 7.05 -0.40
Rabbitohs 6.12 5.23 0.90
Knights 5.11 0.44 4.70
Bulldogs 2.16 7.33 -5.20
Titans 2.11 -1.85 4.00
Sharks 1.87 -1.78 3.70
Warriors -0.89 -10.01 9.10
Panthers -2.57 -6.58 4.00
Broncos -5.15 -1.55 -3.60
Dragons -8.18 -0.33 -7.90
Raiders -10.23 2.03 -12.30
Wests Tigers -11.37 -3.71 -7.70
Eels -19.87 -8.82 -11.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 121 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles Sep 27 20 – 30 -0.67 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Knights Sep 28 40 – 14 4.01 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Oct 06 Roosters 4.90

 

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