Posts written by David Scott (1680)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

March 3, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.79 11.56 3.20
Bordeaux Begles 5.09 4.78 0.30
Montpellier 4.63 -0.21 4.80
Clermont 4.09 1.88 2.20
Section Paloise 3.58 2.21 1.40
Stade Rochelais 2.55 1.22 1.30
Stade Francais 2.05 -2.17 4.20
Lyon 0.64 -0.45 1.10
Toulon 0.63 3.49 -2.90
Racing 92 0.41 1.88 -1.50
Castres Olympique -0.45 0.59 -1.00
Bayonne -2.41 1.48 -3.90
USA Perpignan -5.13 -3.37 -1.80
Montauban -17.59 -10.00 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Rochelais Mar 01 26 – 31 4.20 FALSE
2 Clermont vs. Bayonne Mar 01 38 – 15 12.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Toulon Mar 01 13 – 13 7.40 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Mar 01 41 – 17 9.70 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Mar 01 42 – 21 12.70 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Montauban Mar 01 68 – 13 37.70 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles Mar 02 39 – 17 3.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Montpellier Mar 22 Clermont 6.00
2 Montauban vs. Bayonne Mar 22 Bayonne -8.70
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Mar 22 Racing 92 7.40
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Section Paloise Mar 22 Stade Rochelais 5.50
5 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Mar 22 Toulon 5.10
6 USA Perpignan vs. Lyon Mar 22 USA Perpignan 0.70
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Toulousain Mar 23 Stade Toulousain -3.20

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 11.51 12.36 -0.80
Blues 8.44 8.91 -0.50
Hurricanes 8.35 8.29 0.10
Crusaders 7.72 8.41 -0.70
Brumbies 7.63 5.59 2.00
Reds 1.23 1.74 -0.50
Highlanders -2.78 -3.06 0.30
Waratahs -4.28 -5.84 1.60
Western Force -6.33 -6.29 -0.00
Fijian Drua -8.18 -7.64 -0.50
Moana Pasifika -8.72 -7.88 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Feb 27 19 – 35 2.60 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Feb 27 31 – 14 6.60 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 25 – 20 -14.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 33 – 43 10.40 FALSE
5 Brumbies vs. Blues Feb 28 30 – 27 2.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 06 Chiefs 25.20
2 Waratahs vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Hurricanes -9.10
3 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 07 Highlanders 7.00
4 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 07 Blues 5.70
5 Brumbies vs. Reds Mar 07 Brumbies 11.40

 

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February 24, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 12

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Team Ratings for Week 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.88 13.41 -3.50
Glasgow 8.15 6.18 2.00
Bulls 7.54 8.86 -1.30
Stormers 6.72 4.17 2.60
Munster 2.43 3.65 -1.20
Edinburgh 1.93 2.67 -0.70
Ulster 1.14 -3.24 4.40
Sharks -0.04 1.29 -1.30
Lions -0.24 -1.19 1.00
Connacht -1.71 -1.39 -0.30
Scarlets -2.53 -0.54 -2.00
Cardiff Rugby -2.73 -2.74 0.00
Ospreys -2.99 -2.15 -0.80
Benetton -5.21 -2.32 -2.90
Dragons -9.74 -15.66 5.90
Zebre -12.61 -11.02 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 57 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 22 34 – 22 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 12

Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Feb 28 Leinster -5.60
2 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Feb 28 Edinburgh 11.50
3 Lions vs. Stormers Mar 01 Stormers -5.00
4 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 01 Bulls 9.60
5 Connacht vs. Glasgow Mar 01 Glasgow -2.90
6 Dragons vs. Benetton Mar 01 Dragons 2.50
7 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 01 Munster 22.00
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Mar 01 Ospreys 2.90

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 9.50 9.50 -0.00
Panthers 8.77 8.77 -0.00
Sharks 7.25 7.25 0.00
Broncos 7.06 7.06 0.00
Storm 6.96 6.96 0.00
Bulldogs 2.13 2.13 0.00
Dolphins 1.85 1.85 -0.00
Raiders 1.62 1.62 0.00
Sea Eagles 0.21 0.21 -0.00
Eels -0.37 -0.37 0.00
Warriors -1.18 -1.18 -0.00
Cowboys -2.69 -2.69 -0.00
Rabbitohs -5.05 -5.05 0.00
Dragons -6.72 -6.72 -0.00
Wests Tigers -7.26 -7.26 -0.00
Titans -8.02 -8.02 -0.00
Knights -14.06 -14.06 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Cowboys Mar 01 Cowboys -11.40
2 Bulldogs vs. Dragons Mar 01 Bulldogs 8.80
3 Storm vs. Eels Mar 05 Storm 11.30
4 Warriors vs. Roosters Mar 06 Roosters -6.70
5 Broncos vs. Panthers Mar 06 Broncos 2.30
6 Sharks vs. Titans Mar 07 Sharks 19.30
7 Sea Eagles vs. Raiders Mar 07 Sea Eagles 2.60
8 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Mar 08 Dolphins 10.90

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.29 12.36 -0.10
Hurricanes 9.11 8.29 0.80
Blues 8.47 8.91 -0.40
Brumbies 7.60 5.59 2.00
Crusaders 6.94 8.41 -1.50
Reds 0.77 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -2.33 -3.06 0.70
Waratahs -4.28 -5.84 1.60
Western Force -7.05 -6.29 -0.80
Moana Pasifika -7.99 -7.88 -0.10
Fijian Drua -8.94 -7.64 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 20 52 – 10 20.50 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 20 36 – 13 8.50 TRUE
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 21 23 – 26 -10.30 TRUE
4 Western Force vs. Blues Feb 21 32 – 42 -12.30 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 22 24 – 50 5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Western Force Feb 27 Moana Pasifika 2.60
2 Reds vs. Highlanders Feb 27 Reds 6.60
3 Fijian Drua vs. Hurricanes Feb 28 Hurricanes -14.50
4 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 28 Chiefs 10.40
5 Brumbies vs. Blues Feb 28 Brumbies 2.60

 

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February 17, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.63 12.36 0.30
Blues 8.63 8.91 -0.30
Hurricanes 8.29 8.29 -0.00
Crusaders 8.03 8.41 -0.40
Brumbies 6.51 5.59 0.90
Reds 0.77 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -2.67 -3.06 0.40
Waratahs -4.88 -5.84 1.00
Moana Pasifika -7.18 -7.88 0.70
Western Force -7.21 -6.29 -0.90
Fijian Drua -8.34 -7.64 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 20%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 13 25 – 23 -6.50 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 13 36 – 12 -2.60 FALSE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 14 26 – 40 3.70 FALSE
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 14 15 – 19 1.60 FALSE
5 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 14 24 – 56 -6.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 20 Hurricanes 20.50
2 Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua Feb 20 Waratahs 8.50
3 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 21 Chiefs -10.30
4 Western Force vs. Blues Feb 21 Blues -12.30
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 22 Crusaders 5.00

 

February 11, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 12.36 12.36 0.00
Blues 8.91 8.91 0.00
Crusaders 8.41 8.41 -0.00
Hurricanes 8.29 8.29 -0.00
Brumbies 5.59 5.59 0.00
Reds 1.74 1.74 0.00
Highlanders -3.06 -3.06 -0.00
Waratahs -5.84 -5.84 0.00
Western Force -6.29 -6.29 0.00
Fijian Drua -7.64 -7.64 0.00
Moana Pasifika -7.88 -7.88 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 13 Crusaders -6.50
2 Waratahs vs. Reds Feb 13 Reds -2.60
3 Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 14 Fijian Drua 3.70
4 Blues vs. Chiefs Feb 14 Blues 1.60
5 Western Force vs. Brumbies Feb 14 Brumbies -6.90

 

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February 3, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

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Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.88 13.41 -3.50
Glasgow 8.15 6.18 2.00
Bulls 7.54 8.86 -1.30
Stormers 6.72 4.17 2.60
Munster 2.43 3.65 -1.20
Edinburgh 1.93 2.67 -0.70
Ulster 1.14 -3.24 4.40
Sharks 0.65 1.29 -0.60
Lions -0.93 -1.19 0.30
Connacht -1.71 -1.39 -0.30
Scarlets -2.53 -0.54 -2.00
Cardiff Rugby -2.73 -2.74 0.00
Ospreys -2.99 -2.15 -0.80
Benetton -5.21 -2.32 -2.90
Dragons -9.74 -15.66 5.90
Zebre -12.61 -11.02 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Scarlets Jan 31 20 – 20 5.50 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Munster Jan 31 31 – 22 13.80 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 01 17 – 52 -3.60 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 01 36 – 24 -6.00 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 01 15 – 31 -2.30 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Feb 01 28 – 20 16.00 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Dragons Feb 01 19 – 13 9.50 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Cardiff Rugby Feb 01 21 – 14 12.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 22 Lions 0.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.35 11.56 2.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.22 4.78 0.40
Montpellier 3.59 -0.21 3.80
Section Paloise 3.58 2.21 1.40
Clermont 2.91 1.88 1.00
Stade Rochelais 2.73 1.22 1.50
Stade Francais 1.41 -2.17 3.60
Toulon 0.96 3.49 -2.50
Racing 92 0.56 1.88 -1.30
Castres Olympique 0.40 0.59 -0.20
Lyon -0.03 -0.45 0.40
Bayonne -1.65 1.48 -3.10
USA Perpignan -5.24 -3.37 -1.90
Montauban -15.89 -10.00 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Feb 01 28 – 23 3.80 TRUE
2 Montauban vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 01 16 – 31 -14.60 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Feb 01 44 – 7 6.80 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Feb 01 37 – 31 13.20 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon Feb 01 24 – 44 11.10 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 01 31 – 10 22.70 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Feb 02 32 – 12 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Feb 15 Bordeaux Begles 11.30
2 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Feb 15 Bayonne 4.30
3 Lyon vs. Montauban Feb 15 Lyon 22.40
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 15 Stade Rochelais 5.60
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 15 Section Paloise -2.30
6 Toulon vs. Clermont Feb 15 Toulon 4.50
7 Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 16 Stade Toulousain -6.40

 

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January 29, 2026

NFL Predictions for the Super Bowl

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Team Ratings for the Super Bowl

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 11.49 1.60 9.90
Patriots 9.73 -6.88 16.60
Rams 6.65 3.32 3.30
Lions 5.54 9.26 -3.70
Texans 5.51 0.65 4.90
Bills 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Jaguars 4.42 -6.28 10.70
Broncos 4.05 3.65 0.40
Vikings 3.09 2.67 0.40
Ravens 2.84 11.27 -8.40
Packers 2.06 5.92 -3.90
Bears 1.41 -3.03 4.40
Chargers 0.96 2.67 -1.70
Eagles 0.79 12.46 -11.70
49ers 0.61 -3.05 3.70
Bengals 0.48 3.45 -3.00
Steelers -0.75 -0.33 -0.40
Colts -1.15 -5.52 4.40
Falcons -1.19 -3.22 2.00
Chiefs -1.92 3.00 -4.90
Browns -2.14 -9.54 7.40
Giants -2.18 -7.54 5.40
Saints -2.73 -5.63 2.90
Cowboys -4.12 -3.23 -0.90
Dolphins -4.39 0.72 -5.10
Buccaneers -4.55 3.86 -8.40
Panthers -4.81 -7.28 2.50
Commanders -5.09 2.74 -7.80
Raiders -6.18 -5.45 -0.70
Cardinals -7.86 0.58 -8.40
Titans -9.33 -9.40 0.10
Jets -10.49 -3.87 -6.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 284 matches played, 172 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Patriots Jan 26 7 – 10 -5.30 TRUE
2 Seahawks vs. Rams Jan 26 31 – 27 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Bowl

Here are the predictions for the Super Bowl. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Patriots vs. Seahawks Feb 09 Seahawks -1.80

 

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