Posts written by David Scott (1761)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

June 16, 2026

AFL Predictions for Week 16

By

Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 28.10 26.75 1.40
Fremantle Dockers 24.45 6.56 17.90
Sydney Swans 19.39 0.56 18.80
Hawthorn Hawks 17.69 22.83 -5.10
Adelaide Crows 17.42 15.32 2.10
Brisbane Lions 11.90 26.20 -14.30
GWS Giants 6.25 9.54 -3.30
Western Bulldogs 6.03 26.06 -20.00
Gold Coast Suns 5.32 10.24 -4.90
Collingwood 5.12 11.76 -6.60
Melbourne Demons 2.89 1.64 1.30
St Kilda Saints -0.02 -7.63 7.60
Carlton Blues -2.41 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -9.48 -14.65 5.20
North Melbourne -18.48 -21.71 3.20
Essendon Bombers -29.94 -27.89 -2.00
West Coast Eagles -33.15 -39.36 6.20
Richmond Tigers -39.09 -29.44 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 11 64 – 121 9.30 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 12 105 – 60 31.30 TRUE
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 13 95 – 50 30.60 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 13 74 – 73 4.30 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 13 90 – 93 -20.60 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 14 80 – 115 -53.90 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 96 – 88 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 18 Fremantle Dockers 7.40
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 19 Hawthorn Hawks -1.40
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 20 Adelaide Crows 25.50
4 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jun 20 GWS Giants 19.70
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 20 Collingwood 25.60
6 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 North Melbourne -20.60
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 21 Western Bulldogs -6.00

 

June 9, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.59 13.41 -1.80
Bulls 11.21 8.86 2.30
Stormers 7.05 4.17 2.90
Glasgow 6.24 6.18 0.10
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 21 – 22 2.90 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 20 – 11 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 20 Leinster 7.40

 

Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.50 11.56 0.90
Montpellier 6.13 -0.21 6.30
Stade Rochelais 5.89 1.22 4.70
Stade Francais 5.16 -2.17 7.30
Section Paloise 4.42 2.21 2.20
Racing 92 4.27 1.88 2.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.05 4.78 -0.70
Clermont 3.53 1.88 1.60
Lyon -0.72 -0.45 -0.30
Toulon -0.73 3.49 -4.20
Castres Olympique -0.74 0.59 -1.30
Bayonne -1.91 1.48 -3.40
USA Perpignan -5.85 -3.37 -2.50
Montauban -23.12 -10.00 -13.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Jun 07 52 – 7 8.30 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Jun 07 31 – 34 7.80 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Jun 07 38 – 21 5.70 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Jun 07 25 – 28 0.00 FALSE
5 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 07 31 – 20 -2.70 FALSE
6 Section Paloise vs. Montauban Jun 07 71 – 35 33.80 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Jun 07 27 – 22 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Jun 14 Section Paloise 6.70
2 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 15 Stade Francais 5.80

 

Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.88 8.29 5.60
Chiefs 13.38 12.36 1.00
Crusaders 10.11 8.41 1.70
Blues 6.27 8.91 -2.60
Brumbies 1.90 5.59 -3.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 66 – 12 12.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 52 – 31 7.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 46 – 24 15.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 12 Chiefs 8.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 13 Hurricanes 12.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Semi-finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 10.81 5.55 5.30
Bath 10.78 10.30 0.50
Saracens 8.02 5.03 3.00
Northampton Saints 7.05 -1.47 8.50
Exeter Chiefs 6.43 -4.58 11.00
Bristol -0.13 3.66 -3.80
Sale Sharks -2.09 6.70 -8.80
Gloucester -3.20 4.13 -7.30
Harlequins -3.75 -3.02 -0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -26.06 -18.45 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 24 – 22 8.20 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 32 – 12 2.80 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 54 – 21 29.10 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 38 – 31 -5.80 FALSE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 38 – 17 2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 Northampton Saints 3.20
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 14 Bath 11.30

 

NRL Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.41 8.77 6.60
Roosters 7.40 9.50 -2.10
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Dolphins 6.45 1.85 4.60
Sharks 5.85 7.25 -1.40
Sea Eagles 5.68 0.21 5.50
Storm 1.61 6.96 -5.30
Rabbitohs -0.86 -5.05 4.20
Broncos -1.87 7.06 -8.90
Cowboys -1.98 -2.69 0.70
Raiders -2.90 1.62 -4.50
Knights -4.00 -14.06 10.10
Bulldogs -4.91 2.13 -7.00
Titans -5.65 -8.02 2.40
Eels -6.37 -0.37 -6.00
Wests Tigers -7.86 -7.26 -0.60
Dragons -12.76 -6.72 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 108 matches played, 68 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 28 – 14 9.60 TRUE
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 32 – 30 11.00 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 0 – 26 -3.20 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 14 – 40 -1.00 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 23 – 28 10.00 FALSE
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 0 – 68 -21.50 TRUE
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 34 – 12 22.80 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 14 – 12 6.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 11 Rabbitohs 5.00
2 Dolphins vs. Roosters Jun 12 Dolphins 3.00
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 13 Warriors 4.90
4 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 13 Eels 0.50
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 14 Wests Tigers 1.80

 

AFL Predictions for Week 15

By

Team Ratings for Week 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 26.87 26.75 0.10
Fremantle Dockers 24.45 6.56 17.90
Sydney Swans 20.77 0.56 20.20
Hawthorn Hawks 17.69 22.83 -5.10
Brisbane Lions 13.37 26.20 -12.80
Adelaide Crows 12.58 15.32 -2.70
Western Bulldogs 10.87 26.06 -15.20
GWS Giants 6.61 9.54 -2.90
Gold Coast Suns 6.55 10.24 -3.70
Collingwood 5.12 11.76 -6.60
Melbourne Demons 1.75 1.64 0.10
St Kilda Saints -0.38 -7.63 7.20
Carlton Blues -2.41 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -10.85 -14.65 3.80
North Melbourne -18.19 -21.71 3.50
Essendon Bombers -28.81 -27.89 -0.90
West Coast Eagles -33.44 -39.36 5.90
Richmond Tigers -40.56 -29.44 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 114 matches played, 79 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Jun 04 75 – 74 -4.20 FALSE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 05 71 – 77 9.20 FALSE
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 06 31 – 155 -41.80 TRUE
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 75 – 106 3.40 FALSE
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 06 71 – 77 -12.80 TRUE
6 Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 07 104 – 102 37.50 TRUE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 07 67 – 72 -30.30 TRUE
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 08 75 – 83 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 15

Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 11 Western Bulldogs 9.30
2 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 12 Geelong Cats 31.30
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 13 Melbourne Demons 30.60
4 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 13 North Melbourne 4.30
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 13 Sydney Swans -20.60
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 14 Brisbane Lions -53.90
7 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 St Kilda Saints 4.00

 

June 2, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.40 10.30 1.10
Leicester Tigers 10.19 5.55 4.60
Saracens 9.32 5.03 4.30
Northampton Saints 8.04 -1.47 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 5.14 -4.58 9.70
Bristol 1.26 3.66 -2.40
Sale Sharks -3.49 6.70 -10.20
Gloucester -3.60 4.13 -7.70
Harlequins -4.74 -3.02 -1.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -25.66 -18.45 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 21 – 19 -4.40 FALSE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 45 – 42 -18.30 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 36 – 32 21.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 26 – 12 22.40 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 26 – 35 15.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 Bath 8.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 Exeter Chiefs 2.80
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 Gloucester 29.10
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 Northampton Saints -5.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 Sale Sharks 2.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

By

Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.98 11.56 1.40
Stade Rochelais 6.04 1.22 4.80
Montpellier 5.95 -0.21 6.20
Stade Francais 5.01 -2.17 7.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.45 4.78 -0.30
Section Paloise 4.29 2.21 2.10
Racing 92 3.78 1.88 1.90
Clermont 3.12 1.88 1.20
Toulon -0.31 3.49 -3.80
Lyon -0.54 -0.45 -0.10
Castres Olympique -1.15 0.59 -1.70
Bayonne -2.98 1.48 -4.50
USA Perpignan -4.78 -3.37 -1.40
Montauban -22.98 -10.00 -13.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais May 31 15 – 71 -20.40 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise May 31 26 – 18 8.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne May 31 38 – 21 14.10 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon May 31 39 – 31 21.00 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique May 31 29 – 27 3.00 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Jun 01 13 – 41 8.00 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 27 – 22 1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Jun 07 Bayonne 8.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Jun 07 Bordeaux Begles 7.80
3 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Jun 07 Castres Olympique 5.70
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Jun 07 Lyon 0.00
5 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 07 Stade Toulousain -2.70
6 Section Paloise vs. Montauban Jun 07 Section Paloise 33.80
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Jun 07 Stade Rochelais 7.50

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.94 13.41 -1.50
Bulls 10.79 8.86 1.90
Stormers 6.70 4.17 2.50
Glasgow 6.67 6.18 0.50
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht May 30 33 – 21 10.60 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Munster May 30 45 – 14 14.30 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 31 44 – 21 14.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Lions May 31 59 – 10 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 Glasgow 2.90
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 Leinster 12.20

 

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