Posts written by David Scott (1530)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

February 27, 2024

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.39 18.86 -0.50
Chiefs 13.68 13.21 0.50
Blues 12.03 12.20 -0.20
Hurricanes 10.47 9.73 0.70
Brumbies 7.25 6.52 0.70
Highlanders 1.10 1.17 -0.10
Reds 0.62 0.07 0.50
Waratahs -2.45 -1.90 -0.50
Rebels -5.33 -4.59 -0.70
Western Force -6.89 -6.15 -0.70
Fijian Drua -9.04 -9.21 0.20
Moana Pasifika -10.73 -10.80 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 33 – 29 -2.60 FALSE
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 3 – 30 -8.10 TRUE
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 14 – 44 -10.90 TRUE
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 34 – 10 26.40 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 35 – 21 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 40 – 22 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Blues Mar 01 Blues -10.90
2 Rebels vs. Western Force Mar 01 Rebels 4.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Mar 02 Fijian Drua -1.70
4 Crusaders vs. Waratahs Mar 02 Crusaders 20.80
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Mar 03 Chiefs 6.40
6 Hurricanes vs. Reds Mar 03 Hurricanes 9.90

 

NRL Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

This is an update after I realised I should have not given a home ground advantage for the first-named teams for the games played in Los Angeles. I got both results wrong as a result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.73 14.73 -0.00
Broncos 9.07 9.07 0.00
Storm 6.15 6.15 -0.00
Roosters 3.08 3.08 -0.00
Sharks 2.94 2.94 0.00
Cowboys 2.47 2.47 0.00
Knights 1.84 1.84 0.00
Rabbitohs 0.87 0.87 0.00
Eels 0.14 0.14 0.00
Warriors -0.07 -0.07 0.00
Sea Eagles -0.48 -0.48 0.00
Raiders -4.31 -4.31 0.00
Dragons -6.93 -6.93 -0.00
Dolphins -7.09 -7.09 0.00
Titans -7.89 -7.89 -0.00
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.15 -0.00
Bulldogs -13.35 -13.35 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Mar 03 Rabbitohs -1.30
2 Roosters vs. Broncos Mar 03 Broncos -6.00
3 Knights vs. Raiders Mar 07 Knights 9.20
4 Warriors vs. Sharks Mar 08 Warriors 4.00
5 Storm vs. Panthers Mar 08 Panthers -5.60
6 Eels vs. Bulldogs Mar 09 Eels 16.50
7 Titans vs. Dragons Mar 09 Titans 2.00
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Mar 10 Cowboys -6.60

 

February 20, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

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Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.12 10.73 1.40
Bulls 10.67 9.00 1.70
Munster 9.64 10.54 -0.90
Glasgow 6.68 4.19 2.50
Stormers 6.42 8.93 -2.50
Ulster 4.54 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 4.10 3.17 0.90
Sharks 0.29 0.85 -0.60
Edinburgh -0.07 -2.26 2.20
Lions -0.10 -4.26 4.20
Benetton -3.28 -5.12 1.80
Ospreys -3.73 -7.79 4.10
Cardiff Rugby -4.20 -5.16 1.00
Scarlets -11.50 -2.23 -9.30
Dragons -14.98 -8.14 -6.80
Zebre -16.61 -20.25 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Munster Feb 17 7 – 42 -14.10 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Feb 17 19 – 24 -14.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 18 10 – 25 -7.20 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Benetton Feb 18 47 – 18 17.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 18 21 – 25 -4.20 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Feb 18 12 – 16 -4.40 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Dragons Feb 18 40 – 7 24.20 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 19 19 – 17 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Mar 02 Edinburgh 7.70
2 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 02 Munster 30.20
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 Lions 1.60
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow Mar 03 Glasgow -6.00
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 03 Bulls 6.20
6 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 03 Connacht 19.60
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Mar 03 Leinster -12.30
8 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 03 Ulster 23.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.31 7.24 0.10
Stade Rochelais 5.27 6.40 -1.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.29 4.07 0.20
Racing 92 3.49 3.42 0.10
Toulon 3.44 3.11 0.30
Stade Francais 2.82 2.62 0.20
Clermont 1.76 1.47 0.30
Castres Olympique 1.35 -0.39 1.70
Montpellier 1.32 2.09 -0.80
Section Paloise 0.44 -0.44 0.90
Lyon -0.70 2.97 -3.70
Bayonne -1.04 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -3.82 -3.64 -0.20
US Oyonnax -8.30 -10.00 1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Feb 18 21 – 13 3.20 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Feb 18 10 – 20 11.70 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 18 28 – 17 -0.30 FALSE
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Feb 18 20 – 44 10.70 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 18 32 – 19 13.20 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. US Oyonnax Feb 18 61 – 34 21.60 TRUE
7 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Feb 19 25 – 17 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 25 Castres Olympique 3.60
2 Lyon vs. US Oyonnax Feb 25 Lyon 14.10
3 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Feb 25 Montpellier 8.90
4 Racing 92 vs. Stade Francais Feb 25 Racing 92 7.20
5 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Feb 25 Section Paloise 3.50
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 25 Stade Rochelais -2.60
7 Clermont vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 26 Clermont 0.90

 

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 18.86 18.86 0.00
Chiefs 13.21 13.21 0.00
Blues 12.20 12.20 0.00
Hurricanes 9.73 9.73 0.00
Brumbies 6.52 6.52 -0.00
Highlanders 1.17 1.17 0.00
Reds 0.07 0.07 -0.00
Waratahs -1.90 -1.90 0.00
Rebels -4.59 -4.59 0.00
Western Force -6.15 -6.15 -0.00
Fijian Drua -9.21 -9.21 0.00
Moana Pasifika -10.80 -10.80 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Feb 23 Crusaders -2.60
2 Rebels vs. Brumbies Feb 23 Brumbies -8.10
3 Western Force vs. Hurricanes Feb 23 Hurricanes -10.90
4 Blues vs. Fijian Drua Feb 24 Blues 26.40
5 Highlanders vs. Moana Pasifika Feb 24 Highlanders 15.00
6 Reds vs. Waratahs Feb 24 Reds 5.00

 

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February 5, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.23 10.73 0.50
Bulls 9.89 9.00 0.90
Munster 8.10 10.54 -2.40
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 5.98 4.19 1.80
Ulster 5.32 7.80 -2.50
Connacht 4.13 3.17 1.00
Lions 0.68 -4.26 4.90
Edinburgh 0.65 -2.26 2.90
Sharks 0.28 0.85 -0.60
Benetton -2.39 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -4.23 -5.16 0.90
Ospreys -4.52 -7.79 3.30
Scarlets -9.96 -2.23 -7.70
Dragons -14.27 -8.14 -6.10
Zebre -17.33 -20.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 07 26 – 20 1.60 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 28 30 – 28 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Munster Feb 17 Munster -14.10
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Feb 17 Edinburgh -14.00
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 18 Bulls -7.20
4 Leinster vs. Benetton Feb 18 Leinster 17.60
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 18 Stormers -4.20
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Feb 18 Connacht -4.40
7 Glasgow vs. Dragons Feb 18 Glasgow 24.20
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 19 Ulster -5.80

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

Sorry I missed round 14 predictions. I have been overseas and a bit out of contact.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.04 7.24 -0.20
Stade Rochelais 5.66 6.40 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.97 4.07 0.90
Racing 92 4.51 3.42 1.10
Toulon 3.64 3.11 0.50
Stade Francais 2.82 2.62 0.20
Clermont 2.00 1.47 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.15 -0.39 1.50
Montpellier 0.30 2.09 -1.80
Section Paloise -0.24 -0.44 0.20
Lyon -1.09 2.97 -4.10
Bayonne -1.28 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -3.83 -3.64 -0.20
US Oyonnax -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Lyon Feb 04 38 – 21 8.80 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Feb 04 33 – 44 6.20 FALSE
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 04 18 – 10 12.30 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 04 46 – 26 14.20 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Francais Feb 04 19 – 23 -4.40 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Feb 04 26 – 5 -3.40 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 05 32 – 37 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Feb 18 Bayonne 3.20
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Feb 18 Bordeaux Begles 11.70
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 18 Stade Rochelais -0.30
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Feb 18 Racing 92 10.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 18 Stade Francais 13.20
6 Stade Toulousain vs. US Oyonnax Feb 18 Stade Toulousain 21.60
7 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Feb 19 Castres Olympique 4.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.48 6.82 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 6.17 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 4.34 2.66 1.70
Harlequins 3.93 1.93 2.00
Bristol 3.19 1.00 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 3.02 -0.89 3.90
Bath 1.44 -1.26 2.70
Sale Sharks -0.18 6.46 -6.60
Gloucester -3.72 -1.45 -2.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 19 – 20 4.80 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 57 – 44 6.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 38 – 13 24.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 40 – 22 7.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 32 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Bristol 4.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 15.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 Exeter Chiefs 22.90
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 Bath 7.60

 

January 8, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.31 7.24 -0.90
Stade Rochelais 5.73 6.40 -0.70
Racing 92 5.71 3.42 2.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.03 4.07 1.00
Toulon 4.17 3.11 1.10
Stade Francais 2.40 2.62 -0.20
Clermont 1.12 1.47 -0.40
Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.39 1.50
Section Paloise 0.25 -0.44 0.70
Montpellier 0.15 2.09 -1.90
Bayonne -0.63 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -0.77 2.97 -3.70
USA Perpignan -4.50 -3.64 -0.90
US Oyonnax -8.41 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 24 – 23 13.00 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 27 – 17 1.60 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 34 – 30 11.90 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 20 – 29 1.80 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 14 – 14 8.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 45 – 0 11.60 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 27 – 12 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. US Oyonnax Jan 28 Bayonne 14.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Bordeaux Begles 9.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Jan 28 Castres Olympique 6.40
4 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 28 Lyon 10.20
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Montpellier 6.40
6 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 28 Toulon 4.90
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 29 Racing 92 5.90

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 5.64 6.13 -0.50
Saracens 5.56 6.82 -1.30
Harlequins 4.47 1.93 2.50
Northampton Saints 4.24 2.66 1.60
Exeter Chiefs 3.94 -0.89 4.80
Bristol 2.61 1.00 1.60
Bath 2.03 -1.26 3.30
Sale Sharks 0.85 6.46 -5.60
Gloucester -4.74 -1.45 -3.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.83 -10.63 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Harlequins Jan 06 3 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jan 06 14 – 22 6.80 FALSE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Jan 07 36 – 42 8.20 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 07 19 – 10 5.30 TRUE
5 Bath vs. Gloucester Jan 08 17 – 10 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 Harlequins 4.80
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 Northampton Saints 24.10
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 Saracens 7.60
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 Gloucester 0.40

 

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