Posts written by David Scott (1643)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 7, 2025

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.19 10.30 0.90
Saracens 7.40 5.03 2.40
Sale Sharks 7.19 6.70 0.50
Leicester Tigers 4.02 5.55 -1.50
Bristol 2.84 3.66 -0.80
Gloucester 2.39 4.13 -1.70
Northampton Saints -1.14 -1.47 0.30
Harlequins -3.25 -3.02 -0.20
Exeter Chiefs -3.70 -4.58 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -19.08 -18.45 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 04 28 – 16 10.80 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 05 38 – 15 22.20 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 29 – 19 15.30 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Oct 05 50 – 17 7.90 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Oct 06 35 – 37 12.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 11 Sale Sharks 33.30
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 12 Bristol 13.50
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 12 Northampton Saints 1.80
4 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 12 Bath 15.80
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 13 Saracens -3.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bay of Plenty 10.58 6.48 4.10
Canterbury 9.03 4.02 5.00
Taranaki 8.57 5.30 3.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.42 0.68 4.70
Otago 4.92 -1.15 6.10
Counties Manukau 3.57 -0.26 3.80
Wellington 2.70 6.60 -3.90
Tasman 1.64 3.49 -1.80
Waikato -1.61 5.46 -7.10
Auckland -2.64 -0.04 -2.60
North Harbour -4.18 1.50 -5.70
Northland -5.96 -6.54 0.60
Southland -10.83 -5.90 -4.90
Manawatu -15.05 -13.45 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Oct 03 15 – 14 11.20 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 04 17 – 51 -0.60 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 04 26 – 33 -4.20 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 04 25 – 19 7.80 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 10 – 38 -15.70 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 41 – 49 2.70 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 05 34 – 14 0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Waikato Oct 10 Otago 9.50
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 11 Bay of Plenty 11.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Oct 11 Taranaki -0.10
4 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 Canterbury 8.50

 

September 30, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.75 13.41 -1.70
Bulls 8.31 8.86 -0.60
Glasgow 6.64 6.18 0.50
Stormers 5.83 4.17 1.70
Munster 4.52 3.65 0.90
Edinburgh 2.07 2.67 -0.60
Sharks 0.83 1.29 -0.50
Connacht -1.05 -1.39 0.30
Scarlets -1.41 -0.54 -0.90
Ospreys -1.60 -2.15 0.50
Lions -1.69 -1.19 -0.50
Cardiff Rugby -2.23 -2.74 0.50
Benetton -2.66 -2.32 -0.30
Ulster -3.06 -3.24 0.20
Zebre -10.42 -11.02 0.60
Dragons -15.83 -15.66 -0.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Leinster Sept 27 35 – 0 -2.20 FALSE
2 Glasgow vs. Sharks Sept 27 35 – 19 11.90 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Dragons Sept 27 42 – 21 19.40 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Sept 28 53 – 40 18.00 TRUE
5 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Sept 28 31 – 28 -6.70 FALSE
6 Scarlets vs. Munster Sept 28 21 – 34 2.80 FALSE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Sept 28 33 – 20 5.50 TRUE
8 Connacht vs. Benetton Sept 28 26 – 15 7.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Ospreys Oct 04 Stormers 14.40
2 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 04 Sharks -9.70
3 Edinburgh vs. Ulster Oct 04 Edinburgh 12.10
4 Connacht vs. Scarlets Oct 05 Connacht 7.40
5 Benetton vs. Glasgow Oct 05 Glasgow -2.30
6 Bulls vs. Leinster Oct 05 Bulls 3.60
7 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 05 Munster 13.80
8 Zebre vs. Lions Oct 06 Lions -1.70

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.61 11.56 0.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.07 4.78 -0.70
Toulon 3.62 3.49 0.10
Section Paloise 3.03 2.21 0.80
Racing 92 2.52 1.88 0.60
Stade Rochelais 2.34 1.22 1.10
Clermont 1.38 1.88 -0.50
Bayonne 0.78 1.48 -0.70
Castres Olympique 0.42 0.59 -0.20
Montpellier 0.39 -0.21 0.60
Lyon -0.40 -0.45 0.00
Stade Francais -1.19 -2.17 1.00
USA Perpignan -4.52 -3.37 -1.10
Montauban -11.15 -10.00 -1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 28 28 – 7 -0.10 FALSE
2 Montauban vs. Montpellier Sept 28 22 – 22 -5.70 FALSE
3 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Sept 28 43 – 31 7.10 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sept 28 40 – 15 8.80 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Sept 28 31 – 8 12.60 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Sept 28 59 – 12 15.80 TRUE
7 Bayonne vs. Toulon Sept 29 35 – 32 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 05 Stade Toulousain -4.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Oct 05 Bordeaux Begles 11.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Oct 05 Castres Olympique 4.40
4 Clermont vs. Montauban Oct 05 Clermont 19.00
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 05 Montpellier 4.60
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Oct 05 Toulon 7.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Oct 05 USA Perpignan 3.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.07 10.30 0.80
Sale Sharks 7.31 6.70 0.60
Saracens 5.59 5.03 0.60
Bristol 4.66 3.66 1.00
Leicester Tigers 4.56 5.55 -1.00
Gloucester 3.52 4.13 -0.60
Northampton Saints -2.27 -1.47 -0.80
Exeter Chiefs -3.78 -4.58 0.80
Harlequins -3.79 -3.02 -0.80
Newcastle Falcons -19.00 -18.45 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Sept 26 27 – 10 9.60 TRUE
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Sept 27 31 – 47 -6.30 TRUE
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Sept 27 17 – 39 -16.50 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sept 29 33 – 33 10.10 FALSE
5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sept 29 42 – 24 5.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 04 Bath 10.80
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 05 Exeter Chiefs 22.20
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 Leicester Tigers 15.30
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Oct 05 Saracens 7.90
5 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Oct 06 Gloucester 12.80

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bay of Plenty 10.25 6.48 3.80
Taranaki 9.84 5.30 4.50
Canterbury 7.76 4.02 3.70
Hawke’s Bay 4.52 0.68 3.80
Wellington 3.04 6.60 -3.60
Otago 2.94 -1.15 4.10
Counties Manukau 2.78 -0.26 3.00
Tasman 2.44 3.49 -1.00
Auckland -0.65 -0.04 -0.60
Waikato -1.40 5.46 -6.90
North Harbour -3.41 1.50 -4.90
Northland -6.17 -6.54 0.40
Southland -11.60 -5.90 -5.70
Manawatu -14.16 -13.45 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland Sept 25 45 – 28 6.60 TRUE
2 Southland vs. Tasman Sept 26 38 – 55 -9.20 TRUE
3 Otago vs. North Harbour Sept 27 41 – 26 7.60 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Wellington Sept 27 39 – 20 8.20 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Sept 28 41 – 5 11.60 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu Sept 28 48 – 24 18.70 TRUE
7 Northland vs. Canterbury Sept 28 19 – 19 -12.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Oct 03 North Harbour 11.20
2 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 04 Otago -0.60
3 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 04 Bay of Plenty -4.20
4 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 04 Waikato 7.80
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 Hawke’s Bay -15.70
6 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 Tasman 2.70
7 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 05 Canterbury 0.90

 

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.36 9.29 -0.90
Roosters 8.04 7.44 0.60
Panthers 7.83 8.50 -0.70
Sharks 6.41 5.10 1.30
Broncos 4.54 -1.82 6.40
Bulldogs 2.21 0.07 2.10
Dolphins 1.52 -1.96 3.50
Sea Eagles 1.02 2.97 -2.00
Raiders 0.92 -3.61 4.50
Warriors -1.33 -1.68 0.30
Cowboys -1.69 4.11 -5.80
Eels -1.79 -3.02 1.20
Rabbitohs -5.19 -4.35 -0.80
Dragons -5.45 -4.55 -0.90
Titans -7.67 -5.50 -2.20
Wests Tigers -7.73 -10.97 3.20
Knights -10.01 -0.05 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Sharks Sept 26 22 – 14 4.40 TRUE
2 Broncos vs. Panthers Sept 28 16 – 14 -0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Broncos Oct 05 Storm 3.80

 

September 23, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 13.41 13.41 0.00
Bulls 8.86 8.86 -0.00
Glasgow 6.18 6.18 -0.00
Stormers 4.17 4.17 0.00
Munster 3.65 3.65 -0.00
Edinburgh 2.67 2.67 -0.00
Sharks 1.29 1.29 0.00
Scarlets -0.54 -0.54 -0.00
Lions -1.19 -1.19 0.00
Connacht -1.39 -1.39 -0.00
Ospreys -2.15 -2.15 -0.00
Benetton -2.32 -2.32 -0.00
Cardiff Rugby -2.74 -2.74 -0.00
Ulster -3.24 -3.24 -0.00
Zebre -11.02 -11.02 -0.00
Dragons -15.66 -15.66 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stormers vs. Leinster Sept 27 Leinster -2.20
2 Glasgow vs. Sharks Sept 27 Glasgow 11.90
3 Ulster vs. Dragons Sept 27 Ulster 19.40
4 Bulls vs. Ospreys Sept 28 Bulls 18.00
5 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Sept 28 Edinburgh -6.70
6 Scarlets vs. Munster Sept 28 Scarlets 2.80
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Sept 28 Cardiff Rugby 5.50
8 Connacht vs. Benetton Sept 28 Connacht 7.90

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.67 11.56 -0.90
Bordeaux Begles 4.76 4.78 -0.00
Toulon 3.58 3.49 0.10
Section Paloise 2.47 2.21 0.30
Racing 92 2.23 1.88 0.30
Stade Rochelais 1.95 1.22 0.70
Clermont 1.67 1.88 -0.20
Castres Olympique 1.36 0.59 0.80
Bayonne 0.82 1.48 -0.70
Montpellier 0.74 -0.21 1.00
Lyon 0.16 -0.45 0.60
Stade Francais -1.88 -2.17 0.30
USA Perpignan -4.13 -3.37 -0.80
Montauban -11.49 -10.00 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Section Paloise Sept 21 50 – 27 4.50 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montauban Sept 21 71 – 24 21.10 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sept 21 48 – 17 5.40 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sept 21 42 – 37 9.00 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Sept 21 15 – 28 1.10 FALSE
6 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 21 44 – 14 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 28 Bordeaux Begles -0.10
2 Montauban vs. Montpellier Sept 28 Montpellier -5.70
3 Racing 92 vs. Clermont Sept 28 Racing 92 7.10
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sept 28 Section Paloise 8.80
5 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Sept 28 Stade Rochelais 12.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Sept 28 Stade Toulousain 15.80
7 Bayonne vs. Toulon Sept 29 Bayonne 3.70

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.30 10.30 0.00
Sale Sharks 6.70 6.70 -0.00
Leicester Tigers 5.55 5.55 -0.00
Saracens 5.03 5.03 -0.00
Gloucester 4.13 4.13 0.00
Bristol 3.66 3.66 -0.00
Northampton Saints -1.47 -1.47 -0.00
Harlequins -3.02 -3.02 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs -4.58 -4.58 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -18.45 -18.45 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Gloucester Sept 26 Sale Sharks 9.60
2 Harlequins vs. Bath Sept 27 Bath -6.30
3 Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens Sept 27 Saracens -16.50
4 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Sept 29 Northampton Saints 10.10
5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Sept 29 Bristol 5.10

 

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