Posts written by David Scott (1793)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

August 4, 2026

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 14.54 14.61 -0.10
Griquas 8.82 9.78 -1.00
Pumas 4.04 5.36 -1.30
Cheetahs 0.08 -2.42 2.50
Boland Cavaliers -2.18 -4.25 2.10
Bulls -4.08 -2.24 -1.80
Sharks -5.39 -4.65 -0.70
Stormers -9.63 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 12 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 01 24 – 21 13.00 TRUE
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Aug 02 36 – 28 -2.60 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 02 42 – 19 21.30 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Pumas Aug 03 15 – 20 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Lions Aug 08 Lions -2.70
2 Bulls vs. Pumas Aug 09 Pumas -5.10
3 Sharks vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 09 Boland Cavaliers -0.20
4 Stormers vs. Cheetahs Aug 10 Cheetahs -6.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 23

By

Team Ratings for Week 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 27.65 6.56 21.10
Geelong Cats 25.39 26.75 -1.40
Hawthorn Hawks 19.75 22.83 -3.10
Sydney Swans 19.05 0.56 18.50
Adelaide Crows 16.32 15.32 1.00
Brisbane Lions 14.26 26.20 -11.90
Collingwood 7.75 11.76 -4.00
Melbourne Demons 7.18 1.64 5.50
Western Bulldogs 5.53 26.06 -20.50
GWS Giants 2.71 9.54 -6.80
St Kilda Saints 1.64 -7.63 9.30
Carlton Blues 0.86 -4.77 5.60
Gold Coast Suns -5.22 10.24 -15.50
Port Adelaide Power -9.15 -14.65 5.50
North Melbourne -13.96 -21.71 7.80
West Coast Eagles -31.02 -39.36 8.30
Richmond Tigers -37.66 -29.44 -8.20
Essendon Bombers -39.08 -27.89 -11.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats Jul 30 72 – 97 -3.30 TRUE
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 31 78 – 41 32.30 TRUE
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Aug 01 88 – 107 -4.10 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 01 99 – 83 36.90 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants Aug 01 63 – 75 1.60 FALSE
6 Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 01 154 – 78 -15.50 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 02 84 – 73 2.90 TRUE
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 105 – 114 0.30 FALSE
9 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 02 73 – 145 -39.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 23

Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. North Melbourne Aug 06 Western Bulldogs 19.50
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 07 Brisbane Lions 5.50
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 08 Fremantle Dockers -9.50
4 Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 08 Sydney Swans 39.20
5 Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 08 Geelong Cats 75.50
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 08 Adelaide Crows 65.00
7 GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 09 GWS Giants 18.90
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Collingwood Aug 09 Collingwood -27.80
9 St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues Aug 09 St Kilda Saints 0.80

 

July 28, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 22

By

Team Ratings for Round 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 11.35 7.25 4.10
Panthers 10.69 8.77 1.90
Warriors 5.82 -1.18 7.00
Roosters 5.70 9.50 -3.80
Dolphins 4.45 1.85 2.60
Sea Eagles 0.99 0.21 0.80
Storm 0.75 6.96 -6.20
Raiders 0.29 1.62 -1.30
Rabbitohs -0.02 -5.05 5.00
Cowboys -0.77 -2.69 1.90
Bulldogs -1.71 2.13 -3.80
Knights -1.75 -14.06 12.30
Titans -3.37 -8.02 4.60
Broncos -3.42 7.06 -10.50
Eels -5.06 -0.37 -4.70
Dragons -10.75 -6.72 -4.00
Wests Tigers -13.18 -7.26 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 156 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 23 18 – 24 -17.50 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 24 22 – 23 -4.10 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jul 24 28 – 26 3.60 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 25 56 – 10 13.20 TRUE
5 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 25 18 – 6 -6.10 FALSE
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 25 18 – 10 6.30 TRUE
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 26 18 – 38 -0.60 TRUE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 26 12 – 48 -1.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 22

Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Roosters Jul 30 Roosters -2.50
2 Dragons vs. Dolphins Jul 31 Dolphins -11.20
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Storm 6.50
4 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 01 Warriors -5.20
5 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 01 Panthers 14.40
6 Broncos vs. Knights Aug 01 Broncos 2.30
7 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Aug 02 Sharks 15.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Aug 02 Eels -8.10

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

By

Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.29 10.29 -0.00
Bay of Plenty 9.80 9.80 -0.00
Taranaki 7.57 7.57 0.00
Otago 5.80 5.80 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.18 5.18 -0.00
Counties Manukau 3.63 3.63 0.00
Wellington 2.70 2.70 -0.00
Tasman 0.68 0.68 0.00
Waikato -0.83 -0.83 -0.00
Auckland -2.64 -2.64 -0.00
North Harbour -4.18 -4.18 -0.00
Northland -5.96 -5.96 -0.00
Southland -10.83 -10.83 0.00
Manawatu -15.05 -15.05 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Bay of Plenty Jul 30 Bay of Plenty -7.60
2 Tasman vs. North Harbour Jul 31 Tasman 7.90
3 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 01 Taranaki -0.90
4 Southland vs. Otago Aug 01 Otago -13.60
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 01 Canterbury 15.90
6 Northland vs. Manawatu Aug 02 Northland 12.10
7 Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 02 Wellington 0.50

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 3

By

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 14.36 14.61 -0.30
Griquas 9.45 9.78 -0.30
Pumas 3.82 5.36 -1.50
Cheetahs -0.55 -2.42 1.90
Boland Cavaliers -1.96 -4.25 2.30
Bulls -3.91 -2.24 -1.70
Sharks -4.73 -4.65 -0.10
Stormers -10.29 -10.00 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 25 43 – 21 5.30 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 26 52 – 29 12.20 TRUE
3 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 26 56 – 26 14.60 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Stormers Jul 27 41 – 3 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Aug 01 Griquas 13.00
2 Stormers vs. Sharks Aug 02 Sharks -2.60
3 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 02 Lions 21.30
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Pumas Aug 03 Pumas -2.80

 

AFL Predictions for Week 22

By

Team Ratings for Week 22

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 27.23 6.56 20.70
Geelong Cats 23.72 26.75 -3.00
Hawthorn Hawks 21.37 22.83 -1.50
Brisbane Lions 20.83 26.20 -5.40
Sydney Swans 17.88 0.56 17.30
Adelaide Crows 13.86 15.32 -1.50
Collingwood 9.42 11.76 -2.30
Melbourne Demons 6.34 1.64 4.70
Western Bulldogs 5.95 26.06 -20.10
St Kilda Saints 2.81 -7.63 10.40
GWS Giants 1.48 9.54 -8.10
Gold Coast Suns -4.38 10.24 -14.60
Carlton Blues -5.71 -4.77 -0.90
Port Adelaide Power -7.92 -14.65 6.70
North Melbourne -15.57 -21.71 6.10
West Coast Eagles -30.29 -39.36 9.10
Essendon Bombers -36.62 -27.89 -8.70
Richmond Tigers -38.39 -29.44 -9.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 171 matches played, 123 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Jul 23 74 – 108 24.00 FALSE
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Jul 24 97 – 117 -3.80 TRUE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 24 112 – 42 55.20 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 25 110 – 97 8.90 TRUE
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 25 132 – 39 51.80 TRUE
6 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jul 25 88 – 139 2.50 FALSE
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 25 105 – 48 42.00 TRUE
8 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 26 126 – 67 36.20 TRUE
9 North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 26 62 – 93 -16.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats Jul 30 Geelong Cats -3.30
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 31 Fremantle Dockers 32.30
3 St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans Aug 01 Sydney Swans -4.10
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Aug 01 Hawthorn Hawks 36.90
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. GWS Giants Aug 01 Port Adelaide Power 1.60
6 Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 01 Brisbane Lions -15.50
7 Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 02 Richmond Tigers 2.90
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 02 Gold Coast Suns 0.30
9 Essendon Bombers vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 02 Adelaide Crows -39.50

 

July 21, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 21

By

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.57 8.77 2.80
Sharks 9.14 7.25 1.90
Warriors 7.11 -1.18 8.30
Roosters 6.04 9.50 -3.50
Dolphins 4.45 1.85 2.60
Sea Eagles 3.20 0.21 3.00
Storm 0.57 6.96 -6.40
Rabbitohs 0.16 -5.05 5.20
Cowboys -0.96 -2.69 1.70
Raiders -1.85 1.62 -3.50
Knights -2.09 -14.06 12.00
Bulldogs -3.00 2.13 -5.10
Broncos -3.23 7.06 -10.30
Titans -4.74 -8.02 3.30
Eels -5.94 -0.37 -5.60
Dragons -9.39 -6.72 -2.70
Wests Tigers -11.05 -7.26 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Broncos Jul 16 12 – 14 22.10 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Knights Jul 17 20 – 18 17.50 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Storm Jul 17 14 – 6 9.90 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Jul 18 34 – 24 0.50 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Dragons Jul 18 20 – 12 22.70 TRUE
6 Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers Jul 18 32 – 0 8.90 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Sea Eagles Jul 19 38 – 32 -5.70 FALSE
8 Dolphins vs. Cowboys Jul 19 36 – 16 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Panthers Jul 23 Panthers -17.50
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jul 24 Roosters -4.10
3 Rabbitohs vs. Storm Jul 24 Rabbitohs 3.60
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Jul 25 Raiders 13.20
5 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Jul 25 Warriors -6.10
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 25 Cowboys 6.30
7 Dragons vs. Titans Jul 26 Titans -0.60
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks Jul 26 Sharks -1.90

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 2

By

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 13.69 14.61 -0.90
Griquas 8.56 9.78 -1.20
Pumas 4.49 5.36 -0.90
Cheetahs -1.50 -2.42 0.90
Bulls -3.01 -2.24 -0.80
Boland Cavaliers -3.47 -4.25 0.80
Sharks -3.78 -4.65 0.90
Stormers -8.78 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 4 matches played, 1 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Jul 18 24 – 26 13.00 FALSE
2 Stormers vs. Griquas Jul 18 25 – 19 -16.80 FALSE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Jul 19 29 – 27 -14.00 FALSE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Jul 20 24 – 10 1.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 25 Cheetahs 5.30
2 Lions vs. Pumas Jul 26 Lions 12.20
3 Griquas vs. Bulls Jul 26 Griquas 14.60
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Stormers Jul 27 Boland Cavaliers 8.30

 

AFL Predictions for Week 21

By

Team Ratings for Week 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 26.06 6.56 19.50
Geelong Cats 22.46 26.75 -4.30
Brisbane Lions 19.08 26.20 -7.10
Hawthorn Hawks 18.29 22.83 -4.50
Adelaide Crows 18.12 15.32 2.80
Sydney Swans 13.93 0.56 13.40
Melbourne Demons 7.61 1.64 6.00
GWS Giants 5.43 9.54 -4.10
Collingwood 5.16 11.76 -6.60
Western Bulldogs 4.77 26.06 -21.30
St Kilda Saints 1.63 -7.63 9.30
Gold Coast Suns -4.02 10.24 -14.30
Carlton Blues -6.08 -4.77 -1.30
Port Adelaide Power -6.17 -14.65 8.50
North Melbourne -14.40 -21.71 7.30
West Coast Eagles -29.12 -39.36 10.20
Essendon Bombers -33.55 -27.89 -5.70
Richmond Tigers -37.21 -29.44 -7.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 162 matches played, 116 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 16 102 – 75 32.90 TRUE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Adelaide Crows Jul 17 71 – 87 10.90 FALSE
3 Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 18 75 – 103 -19.70 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 18 76 – 92 -23.30 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Jul 18 90 – 69 9.10 TRUE
6 West Coast Eagles vs. Brisbane Lions Jul 18 69 – 93 -39.70 TRUE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 19 52 – 122 -52.80 TRUE
8 Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 19 68 – 77 4.70 FALSE
9 Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants Jul 19 67 – 64 -33.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 21

Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Jul 23 Adelaide Crows 24.00
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Geelong Cats Jul 24 Geelong Cats -3.80
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles Jul 24 Fremantle Dockers 55.20
4 Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 25 Carlton Blues 8.90
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers Jul 25 Hawthorn Hawks 51.80
6 GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans Jul 25 GWS Giants 2.50
7 Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 25 Western Bulldogs 42.00
8 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 26 Brisbane Lions 36.20
9 North Melbourne vs. St Kilda Saints Jul 26 St Kilda Saints -16.00

 

July 14, 2026

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

By

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 14.61 14.61 -0.00
Griquas 9.78 9.78 0.00
Pumas 5.36 5.36 -0.00
Bulls -2.24 -2.24 -0.00
Cheetahs -2.42 -2.42 0.00
Boland Cavaliers -4.25 -4.25 -0.00
Sharks -4.65 -4.65 0.00
Stormers -10.00 -10.00 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Sharks Jul 18 Pumas 13.00
2 Stormers vs. Griquas Jul 18 Griquas -16.80
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Jul 19 Lions -14.00
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Jul 20 Boland Cavaliers 1.00

 

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