Posts written by David Scott (1661)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 21, 2025

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.40 10.30 1.10
Saracens 9.77 5.03 4.70
Sale Sharks 5.45 6.70 -1.30
Leicester Tigers 3.92 5.55 -1.60
Bristol 3.68 3.66 0.00
Gloucester 0.27 4.13 -3.90
Northampton Saints -0.30 -1.47 1.20
Exeter Chiefs -0.71 -4.58 3.90
Harlequins -4.71 -3.02 -1.70
Newcastle Falcons -20.90 -18.45 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Oct 18 34 – 49 6.80 FALSE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 18 19 – 36 -12.70 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Oct 19 22 – 20 -1.10 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 19 65 – 14 5.00 TRUE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 38 – 0 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Oct 25 Saracens -3.10
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Oct 26 Exeter Chiefs 6.00
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 26 Harlequins 23.20
4 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 26 Bath 14.70
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 26 Leicester Tigers 5.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Final

By

Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.21 4.02 6.20
Bay of Plenty 9.80 6.48 3.30
Taranaki 7.57 5.30 2.30
Otago 5.89 -1.15 7.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.18 0.68 4.50
Counties Manukau 3.63 -0.26 3.90
Wellington 2.70 6.60 -3.90
Tasman 0.68 3.49 -2.80
Waikato -0.83 5.46 -6.30
Auckland -2.64 -0.04 -2.60
North Harbour -4.18 1.50 -5.70
Northland -5.96 -6.54 0.60
Southland -10.83 -5.90 -4.90
Manawatu -15.05 -13.45 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 41 – 17 -4.40 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 18 43 – 19 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Otago Oct 25 Canterbury 7.30

 

October 14, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.78 13.41 -1.60
Bulls 7.54 8.86 -1.30
Stormers 7.53 4.17 3.40
Glasgow 7.23 6.18 1.00
Munster 3.36 3.65 -0.30
Edinburgh 2.58 2.67 -0.10
Sharks -0.29 1.29 -1.60
Connacht -1.00 -1.39 0.40
Benetton -1.18 -2.32 1.10
Ospreys -1.21 -2.15 0.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.63 -2.74 1.10
Ulster -1.80 -3.24 1.40
Scarlets -2.95 -0.54 -2.40
Lions -3.11 -1.19 -1.90
Zebre -10.57 -11.02 0.40
Dragons -16.29 -15.66 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 22 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 20 – 19 8.80 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Stormers Oct 11 0 – 34 -0.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Lions Oct 12 41 – 15 6.90 TRUE
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 12 24 – 0 15.20 TRUE
5 Glasgow vs. Dragons Oct 12 49 – 0 28.40 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 12 31 – 5 18.00 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Oct 12 14 – 8 6.50 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 12 28 – 7 -4.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Bulls Oct 18 Bulls -1.50
2 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 18 Cardiff Rugby -12.70
3 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Oct 18 Edinburgh 10.80
4 Lions vs. Scarlets Oct 19 Lions 6.80
5 Sharks vs. Ulster Oct 19 Sharks 8.50
6 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 19 Leinster 10.40
7 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 19 Glasgow -1.40
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 19 Stormers -11.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.89 11.56 0.30
Toulon 3.71 3.49 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 3.23 4.78 -1.60
Section Paloise 3.03 2.21 0.80
Clermont 2.83 1.88 0.90
Racing 92 2.49 1.88 0.60
Stade Rochelais 1.83 1.22 0.60
Montpellier 1.10 -0.21 1.30
Bayonne 0.86 1.48 -0.60
Castres Olympique 0.27 0.59 -0.30
Lyon 0.03 -0.45 0.50
Stade Francais -0.67 -2.17 1.50
USA Perpignan -5.68 -3.37 -2.30
Montauban -12.03 -10.00 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Toulon Oct 12 27 – 10 4.70 TRUE
2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Oct 12 44 – 19 11.20 TRUE
3 Montauban vs. Castres Olympique Oct 12 28 – 32 -6.10 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 12 32 – 25 8.00 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Oct 12 47 – 24 7.60 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 12 26 – 24 4.30 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 12 56 – 13 13.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Oct 19 Bayonne 4.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 19 Castres Olympique 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Oct 19 Montpellier 7.60
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 19 Stade Toulousain -2.40
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Montauban Oct 19 Stade Rochelais 20.40
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Oct 19 Toulon 7.70
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 19 Bordeaux Begles -2.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.71 10.30 1.40
Sale Sharks 8.58 6.70 1.90
Saracens 6.63 5.03 1.60
Leicester Tigers 3.60 5.55 -2.00
Bristol 2.08 3.66 -1.60
Gloucester 1.87 4.13 -2.30
Northampton Saints -0.73 -1.47 0.70
Harlequins -2.48 -3.02 0.50
Exeter Chiefs -2.94 -4.58 1.60
Newcastle Falcons -20.48 -18.45 -2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 11 57 – 5 33.30 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 12 18 – 14 13.50 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 12 32 – 26 1.80 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 12 38 – 17 15.80 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 13 20 – 14 -3.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Bristol Oct 18 Gloucester 6.80
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 18 Northampton Saints -12.70
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Oct 19 Bath -1.10
4 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 19 Saracens 5.00
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Oct 20 Exeter Chiefs 6.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bay of Plenty 11.55 6.48 5.10
Canterbury 8.97 4.02 5.00
Taranaki 7.57 5.30 2.30
Hawke’s Bay 6.42 0.68 5.70
Otago 4.14 -1.15 5.30
Counties Manukau 3.63 -0.26 3.90
Wellington 2.70 6.60 -3.90
Tasman 0.68 3.49 -2.80
Waikato -0.83 5.46 -6.30
Auckland -2.64 -0.04 -2.60
North Harbour -4.18 1.50 -5.70
Northland -5.96 -6.54 0.60
Southland -10.83 -5.90 -4.90
Manawatu -15.05 -13.45 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Waikato Oct 10 44 – 41 9.50 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 11 27 – 7 11.90 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Oct 11 26 – 12 -0.10 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 23 – 15 8.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 17 Bay of Plenty -4.40
2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 18 Canterbury 5.60

 

October 7, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.26 13.41 -2.10
Bulls 8.80 8.86 -0.10
Glasgow 6.16 6.18 -0.00
Stormers 6.00 4.17 1.80
Munster 3.87 3.65 0.20
Edinburgh 2.07 2.67 -0.60
Sharks 0.23 1.29 -1.10
Connacht -1.05 -1.39 0.30
Scarlets -1.41 -0.54 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -1.58 -2.74 1.20
Ospreys -1.77 -2.15 0.40
Lions -2.10 -1.19 -0.90
Benetton -2.18 -2.32 0.10
Ulster -3.06 -3.24 0.20
Zebre -10.01 -11.02 1.00
Dragons -15.23 -15.66 0.40

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stormers vs. Ospreys Oct 04 26 – 10 14.40 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 04 17 – 17 -9.70 FALSE
3 Benetton vs. Glasgow Oct 05 16 – 14 -2.30 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Leinster Oct 05 39 – 31 3.60 TRUE
5 Munster vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 05 23 – 20 13.80 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Lions Oct 06 22 – 20 -1.70 FALSE

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Munster vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 Munster 8.80
2 Scarlets vs. Stormers Oct 11 Stormers -0.40
3 Benetton vs. Lions Oct 12 Benetton 6.90
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 12 Ospreys 15.20
5 Glasgow vs. Dragons Oct 12 Glasgow 28.40
6 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 12 Leinster 18.00
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Oct 12 Cardiff Rugby 6.50
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 12 Bulls -4.90

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.99 11.56 -0.60
Toulon 4.16 3.49 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.13 4.78 -0.70
Racing 92 2.55 1.88 0.70
Section Paloise 2.50 2.21 0.30
Clermont 2.38 1.88 0.50
Stade Rochelais 1.69 1.22 0.50
Bayonne 1.39 1.48 -0.10
Montpellier 1.04 -0.21 1.30
Castres Olympique 0.39 0.59 -0.20
Lyon -0.46 -0.45 -0.00
Stade Francais -0.53 -2.17 1.60
USA Perpignan -5.19 -3.37 -1.80
Montauban -12.16 -10.00 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 05 40 – 26 -4.30 FALSE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Oct 05 32 – 20 11.00 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Oct 05 20 – 16 4.40 TRUE
4 Clermont vs. Montauban Oct 05 84 – 31 19.00 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 05 37 – 13 4.60 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Oct 05 33 – 17 7.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Oct 05 11 – 28 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Toulon Oct 12 Clermont 4.70
2 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Oct 12 Lyon 11.20
3 Montauban vs. Castres Olympique Oct 12 Castres Olympique -6.10
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 12 Racing 92 8.00
5 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Oct 12 Section Paloise 7.60
6 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 12 Stade Francais 4.30
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 12 Stade Toulousain 13.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

By

 

Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.19 10.30 0.90
Saracens 7.40 5.03 2.40
Sale Sharks 7.19 6.70 0.50
Leicester Tigers 4.02 5.55 -1.50
Bristol 2.84 3.66 -0.80
Gloucester 2.39 4.13 -1.70
Northampton Saints -1.14 -1.47 0.30
Harlequins -3.25 -3.02 -0.20
Exeter Chiefs -3.70 -4.58 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -19.08 -18.45 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Oct 04 28 – 16 10.80 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 05 38 – 15 22.20 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Oct 05 29 – 19 15.30 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Bristol Oct 05 50 – 17 7.90 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Oct 06 35 – 37 12.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 11 Sale Sharks 33.30
2 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 12 Bristol 13.50
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 12 Northampton Saints 1.80
4 Bath vs. Gloucester Oct 12 Bath 15.80
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 13 Saracens -3.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bay of Plenty 10.58 6.48 4.10
Canterbury 9.03 4.02 5.00
Taranaki 8.57 5.30 3.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.42 0.68 4.70
Otago 4.92 -1.15 6.10
Counties Manukau 3.57 -0.26 3.80
Wellington 2.70 6.60 -3.90
Tasman 1.64 3.49 -1.80
Waikato -1.61 5.46 -7.10
Auckland -2.64 -0.04 -2.60
North Harbour -4.18 1.50 -5.70
Northland -5.96 -6.54 0.60
Southland -10.83 -5.90 -4.90
Manawatu -15.05 -13.45 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Southland Oct 03 15 – 14 11.20 TRUE
2 Auckland vs. Otago Oct 04 17 – 51 -0.60 TRUE
3 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 04 26 – 33 -4.20 TRUE
4 Waikato vs. Northland Oct 04 25 – 19 7.80 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 04 10 – 38 -15.70 TRUE
6 Tasman vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 41 – 49 2.70 FALSE
7 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 05 34 – 14 0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Waikato Oct 10 Otago 9.50
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman Oct 11 Bay of Plenty 11.90
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Oct 11 Taranaki -0.10
4 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Oct 12 Canterbury 8.50

 

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