Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

February 28, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 16.79 17.95 -1.20
Blues 13.58 12.34 1.20
Hurricanes 10.71 9.59 1.10
Chiefs 9.97 8.81 1.20
Brumbies 6.67 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.81 5.04 -1.20
Reds 0.78 1.89 -1.10
Waratahs -2.53 -2.50 -0.00
Western Force -5.34 -5.54 0.20
Rebels -6.39 -6.19 -0.20
Moana Pasifika -9.32 -8.91 -0.40
Fijian Drua -10.09 -10.50 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 10 – 31 12.60 FALSE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Feb 24 25 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Feb 25 34 – 36 7.10 FALSE
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 25 20 – 60 -3.80 TRUE
5 Reds vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 13 – 47 -2.20 TRUE
6 Western Force vs. Rebels Feb 25 34 – 27 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Mar 03 Crusaders 13.00
2 Rebels vs. Hurricanes Mar 03 Hurricanes -11.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Chiefs Mar 04 Chiefs -19.30
4 Fijian Drua vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Waratahs -7.60
5 Blues vs. Brumbies Mar 05 Blues 6.90
6 Western Force vs. Reds Mar 05 Reds -6.10

 

February 21, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

By

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.51 16.79 -0.30
Munster 10.87 9.78 1.10
Ulster 9.05 9.27 -0.20
Stormers 8.47 7.14 1.30
Bulls 6.05 7.84 -1.80
Sharks 5.66 6.95 -1.30
Glasgow 3.18 -0.00 3.20
Connacht 2.32 -1.60 3.90
Edinburgh 0.61 3.58 -3.00
Scarlets -2.64 -1.23 -1.40
Ospreys -2.82 -0.83 -2.00
Benetton -4.20 -3.68 -0.50
Lions -4.33 -1.74 -2.60
Cardiff Rugby -4.78 -7.42 2.60
Dragons -10.48 -11.81 1.30
Zebre -17.41 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Ulster Feb 18 17 – 11 -2.30 FALSE
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Feb 18 58 – 3 15.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 19 7 – 29 -4.50 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 19 19 – 23 3.00 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 19 34 – 57 -14.30 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Feb 19 30 – 13 2.60 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 42 – 14 -0.80 FALSE
8 Leinster vs. Dragons Feb 19 43 – 14 32.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ulster Feb 26 Sharks 1.10
2 Lions vs. Glasgow Feb 26 Glasgow -3.00

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.14 6.34 0.80
La Rochelle 7.11 6.88 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.44 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.31 -1.05 5.40
Toulon 4.30 4.09 0.20
Racing 92 3.85 4.86 -1.00
Montpellier 3.34 4.18 -0.80
Lyon 2.70 3.10 -0.40
Clermont 1.57 4.05 -2.50
Castres Olympique 0.32 2.87 -2.50
Aviron Bayonnais -0.26 -4.26 4.00
Section Paloise -1.83 -2.12 0.30
USA Perpignan -3.99 -2.75 -1.20
Brive -5.73 -4.20 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Feb 19 29 – 26 1.80 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Feb 19 17 – 32 0.70 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Montpellier Feb 19 31 – 21 5.40 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Brive Feb 19 34 – 24 16.80 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 19 49 – 29 3.20 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 19 17 – 6 2.90 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 20 18 – 9 9.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique Feb 26 Aviron Bayonnais 5.90
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan Feb 26 Bordeaux Begles 14.90
3 La Rochelle vs. Brive Feb 26 La Rochelle 19.30
4 Lyon vs. Racing 92 Feb 26 Lyon 5.30
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Feb 26 Stade Francais 7.50
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 26 Stade Toulousain 15.50
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Feb 27 Clermont 3.80

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.95 17.95 -0.00
Blues 12.34 12.34 -0.00
Hurricanes 9.59 9.59 -0.00
Chiefs 8.81 8.81 0.00
Brumbies 6.64 6.64 -0.00
Highlanders 5.04 5.04 -0.00
Reds 1.89 1.89 0.00
Waratahs -2.50 -2.50 0.00
Western Force -5.54 -5.54 -0.00
Rebels -6.19 -6.19 0.00
Moana Pasifika -8.91 -8.91 -0.00
Fijian Drua -10.50 -10.50 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 Crusaders 12.60
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies Feb 24 Brumbies -5.60
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Fijian Drua Feb 25 Moana Pasifika 7.10
4 Highlanders vs. Blues Feb 25 Blues -3.80
5 Reds vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 Hurricanes -2.20
6 Western Force vs. Rebels Feb 25 Western Force 4.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 4.81 4.14 0.70
London Irish 2.44 -1.65 4.10
Leicester Tigers 2.27 7.93 -5.70
Northampton Saints 2.17 3.99 -1.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.10 3.67 -1.60
Saracens 1.95 -5.00 7.00
Gloucester 1.66 5.92 -4.30
Harlequins 0.85 3.92 -3.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -2.52 -2.43 -0.10
Bath -5.67 -9.15 3.50
Newcastle Falcons -7.11 -8.76 1.60
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 18 30 – 12 7.90 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Feb 18 28 – 26 5.90 TRUE
3 Bath vs. London Irish Feb 19 10 – 25 -2.20 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 19 38 – 34 1.50 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Feb 20 24 – 18 4.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 25 Bath 1.30
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 26 Saracens 13.60
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Feb 26 Northampton Saints 5.00
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 26 London Irish 4.70
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Feb 27 Exeter Chiefs 1.80

 

February 10, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.83 16.79 0.00
Munster 9.56 9.78 -0.20
Ulster 9.49 9.27 0.20
Stormers 7.77 7.14 0.60
Bulls 6.75 7.84 -1.10
Sharks 4.91 6.95 -2.00
Glasgow 2.74 -0.00 2.70
Connacht 1.87 -1.60 3.50
Edinburgh 1.66 3.58 -1.90
Ospreys -1.51 -0.83 -0.70
Benetton -3.56 -3.68 0.10
Lions -3.59 -1.74 -1.80
Scarlets -3.69 -1.23 -2.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.43 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -10.80 -11.81 1.00
Zebre -16.96 -16.99 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 102 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 04 19 – 46 3.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Ulster Feb 18 Ulster -2.30
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Feb 18 Munster 15.60
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 19 Sharks -4.50
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 19 Bulls 3.00
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 19 Connacht -14.30
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Feb 19 Cardiff Rugby 2.60
7 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 Edinburgh -0.80
8 Leinster vs. Dragons Feb 19 Leinster 32.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

By

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.54 6.34 1.20
La Rochelle 6.59 6.88 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.46 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.37 -1.05 5.40
Racing 92 4.19 4.86 -0.70
Toulon 3.90 4.09 -0.20
Montpellier 3.57 4.18 -0.60
Lyon 2.47 3.10 -0.60
Clermont 1.55 4.05 -2.50
Castres Olympique 0.84 2.87 -2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -0.32 -4.26 3.90
Section Paloise -1.28 -2.12 0.80
USA Perpignan -4.54 -2.75 -1.80
Brive -6.07 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 05 21 – 16 15.10 TRUE
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Feb 05 22 – 24 5.70 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Feb 05 41 – 26 6.30 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Feb 05 16 – 20 11.70 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Feb 05 38 – 19 -0.20 FALSE
6 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 05 18 – 20 7.10 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 06 12 – 6 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Feb 19 Aviron Bayonnais 1.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Feb 19 Castres Olympique 0.70
3 Lyon vs. Montpellier Feb 19 Lyon 5.40
4 Racing 92 vs. Brive Feb 19 Racing 92 16.80
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 19 USA Perpignan 3.20
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 19 Toulon 2.90
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 20 Bordeaux Begles 9.40

 

January 31, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

By

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.83 16.79 0.00
Munster 9.56 9.78 -0.20
Ulster 9.49 9.27 0.20
Bulls 6.75 7.84 -1.10
Stormers 6.68 7.14 -0.50
Sharks 6.00 6.95 -1.00
Glasgow 2.74 -0.00 2.70
Connacht 1.87 -1.60 3.50
Edinburgh 1.66 3.58 -1.90
Ospreys -1.51 -0.83 -0.70
Benetton -3.56 -3.68 0.10
Lions -3.59 -1.74 -1.80
Scarlets -3.69 -1.23 -2.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.43 -7.42 2.00
Dragons -10.80 -11.81 1.00
Zebre -16.96 -16.99 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 101 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Jan 28 37 – 28 -7.40 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Jan 28 35 – 5 5.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Munster Jan 29 30 – 40 -8.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Jan 29 28 – 42 -7.80 TRUE
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 29 38 – 14 27.40 TRUE
6 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Jan 29 19 – 22 0.90 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Lions Jan 29 43 – 24 8.90 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Jan 30 24 – 28 -11.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 04 Sharks 3.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.90 6.34 1.60
La Rochelle 7.11 6.88 0.20
Racing 92 4.80 4.86 -0.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.43 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.40 -1.05 5.50
Montpellier 4.03 4.18 -0.20
Toulon 3.44 4.09 -0.70
Lyon 1.95 3.10 -1.20
Castres Olympique 1.27 2.87 -1.60
Clermont 1.11 4.05 -2.90
Aviron Bayonnais -0.68 -4.26 3.60
Section Paloise -1.90 -2.12 0.20
USA Perpignan -4.92 -2.75 -2.20
Brive -5.68 -4.20 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Jan 29 37 – 9 10.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 29 23 – 18 3.20 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Jan 29 34 – 14 6.40 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 29 39 – 36 4.30 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Jan 29 27 – 16 11.90 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Jan 29 31 – 24 -3.60 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 30 23 – 9 10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 05 Stade Toulousain 15.10
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Feb 05 Brive 5.70
3 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Feb 05 Clermont 6.30
4 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Feb 05 La Rochelle 11.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Feb 05 Racing 92 -0.20
6 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 05 Montpellier 7.10
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 06 Stade Francais 6.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 5.01 4.14 0.90
Leicester Tigers 2.15 7.93 -5.80
Exeter Chiefs 2.10 3.67 -1.60
Saracens 2.06 -5.00 7.10
Gloucester 1.97 5.92 -3.90
Northampton Saints 1.97 3.99 -2.00
London Irish 1.74 -1.65 3.40
Harlequins 0.54 3.92 -3.40
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -3.09 -2.43 -0.70
Bath -4.97 -9.15 4.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.54 -8.76 2.20
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Jan 28 30 – 27 15.90 TRUE
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Jan 29 18 – 19 5.50 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Jan 29 20 – 19 10.80 TRUE
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Jan 29 24 – 17 4.20 TRUE
5 London Irish vs. Harlequins Jan 30 42 – 24 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 18 Bristol 7.90
2 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Feb 18 Gloucester 5.90
3 Bath vs. London Irish Feb 19 London Irish -2.20
4 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Feb 19 Northampton Saints 1.50
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Feb 20 Leicester Tigers 4.60

 

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