March 21, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.08 17.95 -0.90
Blues 13.10 12.34 0.80
Chiefs 10.42 8.81 1.60
Hurricanes 10.06 9.59 0.50
Brumbies 7.23 6.64 0.60
Highlanders 2.13 5.04 -2.90
Reds 1.87 1.89 -0.00
Waratahs -2.03 -2.50 0.50
Rebels -5.55 -6.19 0.60
Western Force -6.74 -5.54 -1.20
Fijian Drua -9.47 -10.50 1.00
Moana Pasifika -9.48 -8.91 -0.60

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Waratahs Mar 17 34 – 17 17.70 TRUE
2 Chiefs vs. Rebels Mar 18 44 – 25 21.90 TRUE
3 Blues vs. Crusaders Mar 18 28 – 34 0.10 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika Mar 18 62 – 36 21.80 TRUE
5 Highlanders vs. Western Force Mar 19 43 – 35 15.00 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Fijian Drua Mar 19 27 – 24 15.90 TRUE

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Mar 24 Crusaders 15.40
2 Waratahs vs. Chiefs Mar 24 Chiefs -7.00
3 Highlanders vs. Fijian Drua Mar 25 Highlanders 17.10
4 Moana Pasifika vs. Hurricanes Mar 25 Hurricanes -16.00
5 Rebels vs. Reds Mar 25 Reds -3.90
6 Blues vs. Western Force Mar 26 Blues 25.30
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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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