Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

November 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.98 6.83 2.20
La Rochelle 7.60 6.78 0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 6.29 5.42 0.90
Racing-Metro 92 5.52 6.13 -0.60
Lyon Rugby 4.88 4.15 0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.61 5.09 -0.50
Montpellier 3.14 -0.01 3.10
Stade Francais Paris -0.21 1.20 -1.40
Castres Olympique -0.26 0.94 -1.20
RC Toulonnais -0.66 1.82 -2.50
Section Paloise -2.15 -2.25 0.10
Brive -2.49 -3.19 0.70
Biarritz -3.68 -2.78 -0.90
USA Perpignan -4.18 -2.78 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 06 26 – 3 6.70 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 07 12 – 10 -1.90 FALSE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique Nov 07 30 – 23 12.20 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Biarritz Nov 07 33 – 21 7.60 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier Nov 07 27 – 31 4.00 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 07 37 – 15 19.40 TRUE
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 08 31 – 16 11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Stade Francais Paris Nov 28 Biarritz 3.00
2 La Rochelle vs. Section Paloise Nov 28 La Rochelle 16.30
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 28 Montpellier 9.90
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 28 Racing-Metro 92 5.70
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Brive Nov 28 Stade Toulousain 18.00
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Lyon Rugby Nov 28 RC Toulonnais 1.00
7 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Auvergne Nov 28 Clermont Auvergne -2.30

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 5.28 7.35 -2.10
Wasps 3.20 5.66 -2.50
Sale Sharks 2.41 4.96 -2.60
Saracens 1.65 -5.00 6.70
Harlequins 1.22 -1.08 2.30
Leicester Tigers 0.82 -6.14 7.00
Bristol -1.25 1.28 -2.50
Gloucester -1.56 -1.02 -0.50
Northampton Saints -1.80 -2.48 0.70
Newcastle Falcons -2.32 -3.52 1.20
Bath -2.92 2.14 -5.10
London Irish -6.08 -8.05 2.00
Worcester Warriors -10.27 -5.71 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Nov 06 40 – 23 7.10 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 07 27 – 5 12.40 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 07 14 – 15 13.70 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 07 30 – 6 6.90 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 07 34 – 34 13.70 FALSE
6 Wasps vs. Harlequins Nov 08 16 – 26 8.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 28 Exeter Chiefs -3.70
2 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Nov 28 Bristol 5.00
3 Harlequins vs. London Irish Nov 28 Harlequins 11.80
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 28 Newcastle Falcons 12.50
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Nov 28 Saracens 3.70
6 Wasps vs. Gloucester Nov 28 Wasps 9.30

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Semi-Finals

By

Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.50 10.71 -1.20
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 7.81 4.07 3.70
Wellington 5.93 5.62 0.30
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Canterbury 3.57 6.44 -2.90
Taranaki 2.29 -4.52 6.80
Waikato 2.22 2.52 -0.30
Bay of Plenty 0.78 5.20 -4.40
Otago -3.99 -3.47 -0.50
Northland -9.00 -4.75 -4.20
Manawatu -9.14 -14.72 5.60
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.34 -10.39 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Nov 03 22 – 14 15.20 TRUE
2 Waikato vs. Otago Nov 05 27 – 25 11.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Nov 06 34 – 22 6.00 TRUE
4 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 06 40 – 28 5.00 TRUE
5 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 07 24 – 10 17.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Manawatu vs. Otago Nov 12 Otago -1.60
2 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 13 Taranaki 17.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Nov 13 Hawke’s Bay 1.80
4 Waikato vs. Canterbury Nov 13 Waikato 2.10

 

November 2, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.85 6.83 2.00
La Rochelle 7.06 6.78 0.30
Bordeaux-Begles 6.82 5.42 1.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.71 6.13 -0.40
Lyon Rugby 5.13 4.15 1.00
Clermont Auvergne 4.43 5.09 -0.70
Montpellier 2.74 -0.01 2.70
Stade Francais Paris 0.19 1.20 -1.00
RC Toulonnais -0.49 1.82 -2.30
Castres Olympique -0.52 0.94 -1.50
Section Paloise -2.37 -2.25 -0.10
Brive -2.69 -3.19 0.50
Biarritz -3.46 -2.78 -0.70
USA Perpignan -4.05 -2.78 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 31 25 – 9 8.10 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Oct 31 23 – 22 9.50 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 31 30 – 8 2.90 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 31 27 – 18 2.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 31 18 – 9 3.40 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Biarritz Oct 31 13 – 9 10.10 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Oct 31 22 – 13 -5.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 La Rochelle vs. Bordeaux-Begles Nov 06 La Rochelle 6.70
2 Brive vs. Racing-Metro 92 Nov 07 Racing-Metro 92 -1.90
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Castres Olympique Nov 07 Lyon Rugby 12.20
4 Section Paloise vs. Biarritz Nov 07 Section Paloise 7.60
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier Nov 07 Stade Francais Paris 4.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Nov 07 Stade Toulousain 19.40
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais Nov 08 Clermont Auvergne 11.40

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.06 7.35 -1.30
Wasps 4.15 5.66 -1.50
Saracens 2.39 -5.00 7.40
Sale Sharks 1.52 4.96 -3.40
Harlequins 0.27 -1.08 1.30
Leicester Tigers 0.26 -6.14 6.40
Northampton Saints -0.91 -2.48 1.60
Gloucester -1.56 -1.02 -0.50
Bristol -1.80 1.28 -3.10
Bath -2.35 2.14 -4.50
Newcastle Falcons -3.10 -3.52 0.40
London Irish -6.82 -8.05 1.20
Worcester Warriors -9.72 -5.71 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 45.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 30 13 – 16 -3.10 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Wasps Oct 31 17 – 27 -1.00 TRUE
3 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 31 33 – 45 0.90 FALSE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 26 – 55 6.70 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Oct 31 27 – 14 -8.90 FALSE
6 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 01 22 – 29 3.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Nov 06 Leicester Tigers 7.10
2 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Nov 07 Bristol 12.40
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Nov 07 Exeter Chiefs 13.70
4 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Nov 07 Sale Sharks 6.90
5 Saracens vs. London Irish Nov 07 Saracens 13.70
6 Wasps vs. Harlequins Nov 08 Wasps 8.40

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 14

By

Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 8.96 10.71 -1.70
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 7.81 4.07 3.70
Wellington 6.47 5.62 0.80
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Canterbury 2.94 6.44 -3.50
Waikato 2.87 2.52 0.40
Taranaki 2.64 -4.52 7.20
Bay of Plenty 2.05 5.20 -3.10
Otago -4.65 -3.47 -1.20
Manawatu -9.14 -14.72 5.60
Northland -9.65 -4.75 -4.90
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.69 -10.39 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 53.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 29 24 – 20 -3.90 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 30 33 – 37 4.20 FALSE
3 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 30 31 – 40 -14.40 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Northland Oct 31 37 – 33 0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Nov 03 Bay of Plenty 15.20
2 Waikato vs. Otago Nov 05 Waikato 11.00
3 Tasman vs. Wellington Nov 06 Tasman 6.00
4 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Nov 06 Canterbury 4.40
5 Taranaki vs. Southland Nov 07 Taranaki 17.80

 

October 26, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.87 14.79 1.10
Munster 10.95 10.69 0.30
Ulster 6.68 7.41 -0.70
Connacht 2.85 1.72 1.10
Glasgow 2.76 3.69 -0.90
Bulls 2.61 3.65 -1.00
Edinburgh 2.23 2.90 -0.70
Stormers 1.57 0.00 1.60
Ospreys 1.01 0.94 0.10
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -0.89 -0.11 -0.80
Scarlets -1.76 -0.77 -1.00
Lions -3.08 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.46 -4.50 0.00
Dragons -4.95 -6.92 2.00
Zebre -15.68 -13.47 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 23 34 – 28 9.90 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 23 10 – 27 -10.20 TRUE
3 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 24 15 – 31 -5.40 TRUE
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 24 31 – 29 10.60 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Ulster Oct 24 36 – 11 -1.30 FALSE
6 Ospreys vs. Munster Oct 24 18 – 10 -4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Nov 27 Connacht 8.30
2 Benetton vs. Glasgow Nov 27 Glasgow -0.70
3 Stormers vs. Zebre Nov 27 Stormers 23.70
4 Sharks vs. Scarlets Nov 28 Sharks 8.60
5 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Nov 28 Edinburgh -0.70
6 Bulls vs. Munster Nov 28 Munster -1.80
7 Leinster vs. Ulster Nov 28 Leinster 14.20
8 Lions vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 29 Lions 4.30

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 9.16 6.83 2.30
La Rochelle 7.55 6.78 0.80
Bordeaux-Begles 6.43 5.42 1.00
Lyon Rugby 5.75 4.15 1.60
Racing-Metro 92 5.40 6.13 -0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.83 5.09 -0.30
Montpellier 2.12 -0.01 2.10
Stade Francais Paris 0.47 1.20 -0.70
Castres Olympique -0.09 0.94 -1.00
RC Toulonnais -0.18 1.82 -2.00
Section Paloise -2.65 -2.25 -0.40
Brive -3.12 -3.19 0.10
Biarritz -3.77 -2.78 -1.00
USA Perpignan -4.54 -2.78 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Brive Oct 24 37 – 9 4.40 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. USA Perpignan Oct 24 39 – 13 16.50 TRUE
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Section Paloise Oct 24 42 – 20 13.10 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. RC Toulonnais Oct 24 39 – 6 13.00 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 24 21 – 32 11.20 FALSE
6 Stade Francais Paris vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 24 23 – 18 0.80 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Castres Olympique Oct 24 41 – 0 14.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 31 Bordeaux-Begles 8.10
2 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Oct 31 Castres Olympique 9.50
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 31 Montpellier 2.90
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 31 Racing-Metro 92 2.70
5 Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 31 Section Paloise 3.40
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Biarritz Oct 31 RC Toulonnais 10.10
7 USA Perpignan vs. La Rochelle Oct 31 La Rochelle -5.60

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.07 7.35 -1.30
Wasps 3.63 5.66 -2.00
Sale Sharks 2.62 4.96 -2.30
Saracens 1.79 -5.00 6.80
Harlequins 0.86 -1.08 1.90
Northampton Saints 0.76 -2.48 3.20
Leicester Tigers -1.41 -6.14 4.70
Gloucester -1.57 -1.02 -0.50
Bath -1.84 2.14 -4.00
Bristol -2.50 1.28 -3.80
Newcastle Falcons -3.10 -3.52 0.40
London Irish -6.11 -8.05 1.90
Worcester Warriors -10.83 -5.71 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 47.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 23 66 – 10 12.10 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Oct 24 21 – 33 19.70 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 24 29 – 20 5.50 TRUE
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 24 31 – 17 6.30 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 24 19 – 11 -0.50 FALSE
6 Saracens vs. Wasps Oct 25 56 – 15 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 30 Exeter Chiefs -3.10
2 Bath vs. Wasps Oct 31 Wasps -1.00
3 London Irish vs. Bristol Oct 31 London Irish 0.90
4 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 Northampton Saints 6.70
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Sale Sharks Oct 31 Sale Sharks -8.90
6 Harlequins vs. Saracens Nov 01 Harlequins 3.60

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 13

By

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.67 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 8.30 4.07 4.20
Wellington 6.47 5.62 0.80
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.79 5.20 -2.40
Taranaki 2.64 -4.52 7.20
Canterbury 2.23 6.44 -4.20
Waikato 2.13 2.52 -0.40
Otago -4.65 -3.47 -1.20
Northland -9.37 -4.75 -4.60
Manawatu -9.63 -14.72 5.10
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.97 -10.39 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 22 22 – 20 -4.60 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 23 41 – 14 7.00 TRUE
3 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 23 47 – 35 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 29 Tasman -3.90
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 30 Bay of Plenty 4.20
3 Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 30 Hawke’s Bay -14.40
4 Otago vs. Wellington Oct 30 Wellington -7.60
5 Southland vs. Northland Oct 31 Southland 0.90

 

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