Posts written by David Scott (1747)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

October 19, 2021

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.58 7.35 0.20
Wasps 5.56 5.66 -0.10
Sale Sharks 3.11 4.96 -1.90
Harlequins 0.41 -1.08 1.50
Saracens -0.13 -5.00 4.90
Northampton Saints -1.23 -2.48 1.30
Bath -1.38 2.14 -3.50
Gloucester -1.85 -1.02 -0.80
Leicester Tigers -1.90 -6.14 4.20
Bristol -2.50 1.28 -3.80
Newcastle Falcons -2.82 -3.52 0.70
London Irish -7.62 -8.05 0.40
Worcester Warriors -8.84 -5.71 -3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 46.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 16 28 – 22 7.40 TRUE
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 17 13 – 5 3.60 TRUE
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 17 23 – 27 3.30 FALSE
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 3 – 48 1.80 FALSE
5 Bath vs. Saracens Oct 18 17 – 71 8.60 FALSE
6 London Irish vs. Gloucester Oct 18 25 – 25 -1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 23 Northampton Saints 12.10
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Oct 24 Exeter Chiefs 19.70
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 24 Gloucester 5.50
4 Harlequins vs. Bath Oct 24 Harlequins 6.30
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 24 Sale Sharks -0.50
6 Saracens vs. Wasps Oct 25 Wasps -1.20

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 12

By

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.67 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Hawke’s Bay 6.96 4.07 2.90
Wellington 6.47 5.62 0.80
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Waikato 3.47 2.52 1.00
Taranaki 3.05 -4.52 7.60
Canterbury 2.82 6.44 -3.60
Bay of Plenty 2.79 5.20 -2.40
Otago -5.24 -3.47 -1.80
Northland -9.37 -4.75 -4.60
Manawatu -10.04 -14.72 4.70
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.97 -10.39 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 15 13 – 24 1.10 FALSE
2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 16 16 – 36 2.30 FALSE
3 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 16 26 – 33 5.70 FALSE
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 16 16 – 36 -11.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 22 Canterbury -4.60
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Waikato Oct 23 Hawke’s Bay 7.00
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Oct 23 Bay of Plenty 15.70
4 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 23 Taranaki 16.60
5 Wellington vs. Southland Oct 23 Wellington 21.90

 

October 12, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

By

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.57 14.79 -0.20
Munster 12.41 10.69 1.70
Ulster 8.07 7.41 0.70
Glasgow 3.45 3.69 -0.20
Bulls 2.77 3.65 -0.90
Edinburgh 1.45 2.90 -1.40
Connacht 0.85 1.72 -0.90
Stormers 0.80 0.00 0.80
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -0.11 -0.11 -0.00
Ospreys -0.17 0.94 -1.10
Scarlets -0.70 -0.77 0.10
Lions -3.25 -3.91 0.70
Benetton -4.33 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -4.95 -6.92 2.00
Zebre -15.16 -13.47 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Sharks Oct 09 13 – 27 8.10 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Oct 09 28 – 8 18.70 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 09 43 – 7 36.30 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Lions Oct 10 13 – 9 14.40 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 10 22 – 35 14.90 FALSE
6 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 10 20 – 20 8.70 FALSE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Oct 10 19 – 29 5.20 FALSE
8 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 10 13 – 43 -4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Stormers Oct 16 Dragons 0.80
2 Ulster vs. Lions Oct 16 Ulster 17.80
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Oct 16 Glasgow -12.10
4 Benetton vs. Ospreys Oct 17 Benetton 2.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Oct 17 Edinburgh 5.20
6 Leinster vs. Scarlets Oct 17 Leinster 21.80
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Oct 17 Cardiff Rugby 6.10
8 Munster vs. Connacht Oct 17 Munster 16.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 7

By

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.45 6.83 1.60
La Rochelle 6.96 6.78 0.20
Lyon Rugby 5.85 4.15 1.70
Bordeaux-Begles 5.82 5.42 0.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.66 6.13 -0.50
Clermont Auvergne 4.07 5.09 -1.00
Montpellier 1.74 -0.01 1.70
RC Toulonnais 0.89 1.82 -0.90
Castres Olympique 0.38 0.94 -0.60
Stade Francais Paris 0.08 1.20 -1.10
Section Paloise -2.08 -2.25 0.20
Brive -2.43 -3.19 0.80
USA Perpignan -3.89 -2.78 -1.10
Biarritz -4.15 -2.78 -1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Biarritz vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 10 5 – 40 -1.50 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier Oct 10 27 – 23 11.30 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Oct 10 29 – 10 12.40 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 10 17 – 14 17.00 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 10 22 – 14 1.90 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Oct 10 38 – 10 16.20 TRUE
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Brive Oct 10 13 – 9 10.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. La Rochelle Oct 17 La Rochelle -2.90
2 Castres Olympique vs. Biarritz Oct 17 Castres Olympique 11.00
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 17 Lyon Rugby 3.90
4 Montpellier vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 17 Montpellier 4.20
5 Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux-Begles Oct 17 Bordeaux-Begles -1.40
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Racing-Metro 92 Oct 17 RC Toulonnais 1.70
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 17 USA Perpignan 2.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

By

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.15 7.35 -0.20
Wasps 6.00 5.66 0.30
Sale Sharks 3.23 4.96 -1.70
Bath 1.31 2.14 -0.80
Harlequins 0.29 -1.08 1.40
Northampton Saints -1.23 -2.48 1.30
Gloucester -1.73 -1.02 -0.70
Bristol -2.22 1.28 -3.50
Saracens -2.83 -5.00 2.20
Newcastle Falcons -3.10 -3.52 0.40
Leicester Tigers -4.00 -6.14 2.10
Worcester Warriors -6.74 -5.71 -1.00
London Irish -7.75 -8.05 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 09 52 – 24 4.70 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 10 42 – 5 16.30 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Oct 10 33 – 32 -0.70 FALSE
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 10 16 – 21 1.50 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 10 37 – 23 3.60 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 11 26 – 20 12.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 16 Sale Sharks 7.40
2 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 17 Newcastle Falcons 3.60
3 Wasps vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 17 Wasps 3.30
4 Worcester Warriors vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 17 Worcester Warriors 1.80
5 Bath vs. Saracens Oct 18 Bath 8.60
6 London Irish vs. Gloucester Oct 18 Gloucester -1.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 11

By

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 9.67 10.71 -1.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 5.70 5.62 0.10
Hawke’s Bay 5.49 4.07 1.40
Waikato 4.35 2.52 1.80
Canterbury 4.29 6.44 -2.10
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.79 5.20 -2.40
Taranaki 2.16 -4.52 6.70
Otago -6.08 -3.47 -2.60
Northland -8.52 -4.75 -3.80
Manawatu -9.27 -14.72 5.50
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90
Southland -11.97 -10.39 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 08 35 – 30 4.90 TRUE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Oct 09 34 – 22 -2.70 FALSE
3 Otago vs. Taranaki Oct 09 23 – 30 -4.30 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Oct 10 27 – 38 2.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Oct 15 Northland 1.10
2 Canterbury vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 16 Canterbury 2.30
3 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 16 Waikato 5.70
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Oct 16 Wellington -11.50

 

October 5, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

By

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.60 14.79 -0.20
Munster 11.20 10.69 0.50
Ulster 7.95 7.41 0.50
Glasgow 4.04 3.69 0.40
Edinburgh 2.24 2.90 -0.70
Connacht 2.14 1.72 0.40
Bulls 1.97 3.65 -1.70
Ospreys 0.91 0.94 -0.00
Cardiff Rugby 0.69 -0.11 0.80
Scarlets 0.51 -0.77 1.30
Stormers 0.01 0.00 0.00
Sharks -0.74 -0.07 -0.70
Lions -3.83 -3.91 0.10
Benetton -4.21 -4.50 0.30
Dragons -6.24 -6.92 0.70
Zebre -15.19 -13.47 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 93.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Bulls Oct 02 34 – 7 4.50 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Lions Oct 02 36 – 13 9.40 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Oct 02 28 – 27 -0.20 FALSE
4 Dragons vs. Leinster Oct 02 6 – 7 -15.90 TRUE
5 Glasgow vs. Sharks Oct 03 35 – 24 11.30 TRUE
6 Zebre vs. Ulster Oct 03 3 – 36 -14.80 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Stormers Oct 03 34 – 18 18.10 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 03 18 – 14 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Sharks Oct 09 Ospreys 8.10
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Oct 09 Ulster 18.70
3 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 09 Leinster 36.30
4 Glasgow vs. Lions Oct 10 Glasgow 14.40
5 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 10 Connacht 14.90
6 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 10 Edinburgh 8.70
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Oct 10 Cardiff Rugby 5.20
8 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 10 Munster -4.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

By

Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.04 6.83 1.20
La Rochelle 6.63 6.78 -0.20
Bordeaux-Begles 6.19 5.42 0.80
Racing-Metro 92 6.13 6.13 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 4.86 4.15 0.70
Clermont Auvergne 4.38 5.09 -0.70
Montpellier 1.37 -0.01 1.40
RC Toulonnais 1.22 1.82 -0.60
Castres Olympique 0.71 0.94 -0.20
Stade Francais Paris -0.22 1.20 -1.40
Section Paloise -1.67 -2.25 0.60
Brive -2.75 -3.19 0.40
Biarritz -3.16 -2.78 -0.40
USA Perpignan -4.36 -2.78 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris Oct 02 19 – 12 3.60 TRUE
2 Lyon Rugby vs. Bordeaux-Begles Oct 02 15 – 20 5.90 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle Oct 02 21 – 11 0.30 TRUE
4 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 02 14 – 29 5.10 FALSE
5 Biarritz vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 03 11 – 17 -4.60 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. RC Toulonnais Oct 03 27 – 16 5.40 TRUE
7 Clermont Auvergne vs. Racing-Metro 92 Oct 04 26 – 17 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Biarritz vs. Lyon Rugby Oct 10 Lyon Rugby -1.50
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier Oct 10 Bordeaux-Begles 11.30
3 La Rochelle vs. Castres Olympique Oct 10 La Rochelle 12.40
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 10 Racing-Metro 92 17.00
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Clermont Auvergne Oct 10 Stade Francais Paris 1.90
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Oct 10 Stade Toulousain 16.20
7 RC Toulonnais vs. Brive Oct 10 RC Toulonnais 10.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

By

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wasps 6.39 5.66 0.70
Exeter Chiefs 6.09 7.35 -1.30
Sale Sharks 3.37 4.96 -1.60
Bath 1.31 2.14 -0.80
Harlequins -0.87 -1.08 0.20
Bristol -1.06 1.28 -2.30
Northampton Saints -1.63 -2.48 0.90
Gloucester -1.87 -1.02 -0.80
Newcastle Falcons -2.51 -3.52 1.00
Saracens -3.41 -5.00 1.60
Leicester Tigers -4.40 -6.14 1.70
Worcester Warriors -5.68 -5.71 0.00
London Irish -7.35 -8.05 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 18 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 44.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Oct 02 25 – 20 1.60 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Oct 02 23 – 21 11.30 TRUE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Oct 03 13 – 12 4.00 TRUE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Wasps Oct 03 18 – 14 -5.50 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Gloucester Oct 03 23 – 31 1.80 FALSE
6 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 04 15 – 25 3.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Bristol Oct 09 Harlequins 4.70
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 10 Exeter Chiefs 16.30
3 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Oct 10 Sale Sharks -0.70
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 10 London Irish 1.50
5 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 10 Saracens 3.60
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Oct 11 Wasps 12.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 10.69 10.71 -0.00
Auckland 8.62 7.95 0.70
Wellington 5.69 5.62 0.10
Hawke’s Bay 4.48 4.07 0.40
Waikato 4.35 2.52 1.80
Canterbury 4.30 6.44 -2.10
North Harbour 4.04 5.75 -1.70
Bay of Plenty 2.79 5.20 -2.40
Taranaki 1.92 -4.52 6.40
Otago -5.83 -3.47 -2.40
Northland -8.52 -4.75 -3.80
Manawatu -10.22 -14.72 4.50
Southland -11.02 -10.39 -0.60
Counties Manukau -11.10 -10.22 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Waikato Oct 02 38 – 28 -12.30 FALSE
2 Manawatu vs. Otago Oct 02 27 – 14 -3.10 FALSE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Wellington Oct 02 33 – 32 0.50 TRUE
4 Tasman vs. Southland Oct 03 51 – 14 23.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Canterbury Oct 08 Wellington 4.90
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Oct 09 Tasman -2.70
3 Otago vs. Taranaki Oct 09 Taranaki -4.30
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Oct 10 Southland 2.70

 

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