Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

January 25, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.69 16.52 1.20
Munster 10.35 9.90 0.40
Ulster 9.04 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.05 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.10 5.66 -2.60
Scarlets 1.21 1.98 -0.80
Connacht 0.85 0.70 0.10
Cardiff Blues -0.12 0.08 -0.20
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.37 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -8.13 -7.85 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.66 -15.37 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jan 25 20 – 26 10.80 FALSE
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Jan 17 23 – 22 4.40 TRUE
3 Munster vs. Leinster Jan 24 10 – 13 -4.10 TRUE
4 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Jan 24 10 – 26 -12.60 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Jan 23 10 – 13 7.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Munster Jan 31 Munster -6.20
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Jan 31 Leinster -11.00

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

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Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 refers to the Cheetahs team when there is a Pro14 match. The assumption is that the team playing in the Pro14 is the top team and the Currie Cup team is essentially a second team. Possibly there will be no such clashes this year

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.47 5.63 -0.20
Bulls 4.86 6.16 -1.30
Lions 3.74 1.46 2.30
Western Province 3.28 5.26 -2.00
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.96 0.80
Pumas -5.67 -6.66 1.00
Griquas -9.50 -8.90 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 24 26 – 21 5.80 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 24 9 – 19 4.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Sharks Jan 31 Bulls 3.90

 

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January 19, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 7.19 6.21 1.00
Stade Toulousain 6.94 4.80 2.10
La Rochelle 5.72 2.32 3.40
Clermont Auvergne 4.30 3.22 1.10
RC Toulonnais 4.09 3.56 0.50
Lyon Rugby 3.38 5.61 -2.20
Bordeaux-Begles 3.08 2.83 0.30
Montpellier 1.54 2.30 -0.80
Stade Francais Paris 0.09 -3.22 3.30
Castres Olympique -1.67 -0.47 -1.20
Section Paloise -3.60 -4.48 0.90
Brive -3.85 -3.26 -0.60
Aviron Bayonnais -5.22 -4.13 -1.10
SU Agen -11.43 -4.72 -6.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Jan 18 19 – 21 7.40 FALSE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 17 16 – 16 3.90 FALSE
3 Racing-Metro 92 vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 18 23 – 29 8.90 FALSE
4 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Section Paloise Jan 17 22 – 23 4.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique Jan 24 Clermont Auvergne 11.50
2 La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 23 La Rochelle 16.40
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 24 Montpellier 3.70
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 24 Racing-Metro 92 9.60
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 25 RC Toulonnais 9.50
6 Section Paloise vs. Brive Jan 25 Section Paloise 5.70
7 SU Agen vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 24 Stade Toulousain -12.90

 

January 16, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

Another update because of a rescheduled match. And what is even weirder, another match listed as a Round 12 match. Can the season get any more messed up?

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.79 16.52 1.30
Munster 10.32 9.90 0.40
Ulster 9.06 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 1.61 1.98 -0.40
Connacht 1.40 0.70 0.70
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.59 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.90 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -8.19 -7.85 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 29 – 20 1.40 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 10 – 16 -3.50 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 20 – 28 0.20 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 29 – 20 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Ospreys Jan 25 Connacht 10.80
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Edinburgh Jan 17 Glasgow Warriors 4.40
3 Munster vs. Leinster Jan 24 Leinster -4.10
4 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Jan 24 Edinburgh -12.30
5 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Blues Jan 23 Scarlets 7.20

 

January 12, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

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Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing-Metro 92 6.89 6.21 0.70
Stade Toulousain 6.89 4.80 2.10
La Rochelle 6.36 2.32 4.00
RC Toulonnais 3.52 3.56 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 3.40 5.61 -2.20
Bordeaux-Begles 3.26 2.83 0.40
Clermont Auvergne 2.95 3.22 -0.30
Montpellier 1.77 2.30 -0.50
Stade Francais Paris 0.14 -3.22 3.40
Castres Olympique -1.89 -0.47 -1.40
Section Paloise -2.60 -4.48 1.90
Brive -3.84 -3.26 -0.60
Aviron Bayonnais -4.84 -4.13 -0.70
SU Agen -11.43 -4.72 -6.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 90 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 09 31 – 9 4.10 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Jan 09 23 – 22 -0.30 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. SU Agen Jan 09 39 – 23 14.90 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 09 31 – 42 7.30 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Clermont Auvergne Jan 09 48 – 24 -1.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 09 31 – 9 11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Jan 30 Aviron Bayonnais 12.10
2 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 30 RC Toulonnais -1.90
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 30 Clermont Auvergne 5.20
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 30 La Rochelle 5.00
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 30 Lyon Rugby 11.50
6 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 Montpellier 0.40
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Jan 30 Stade Francais Paris 7.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.28 7.35 -0.10
Wasps 5.44 5.66 -0.20
Sale Sharks 3.37 4.96 -1.60
Bristol 3.11 1.28 1.80
Bath -0.37 2.14 -2.50
Harlequins -1.57 -1.08 -0.50
Gloucester -2.35 -1.02 -1.30
Northampton Saints -2.37 -2.48 0.10
Leicester Tigers -5.78 -6.14 0.40
Newcastle Falcons -6.08 -10.00 3.90
London Irish -6.57 -8.05 1.50
Worcester Warriors -7.20 -5.71 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 31 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 54.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Wasps Jan 09 44 – 52 -0.40 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Worcester Warriors Jan 09 20 – 13 16.10 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bristol Jan 10 7 – 20 11.10 FALSE
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Jan 10 22 – 10 -0.60 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. London Irish Jan 11 27 – 27 10.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 30 Bristol 8.00
2 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jan 31 Gloucester 4.50
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jan 31 Sale Sharks -4.60
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 01 London Irish 4.00
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Feb 01 Wasps 11.50
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 31 Exeter Chiefs -10.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.79 16.52 1.30
Munster 10.32 9.90 0.40
Ulster 9.06 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 1.61 1.98 -0.40
Connacht 1.40 0.70 0.70
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.59 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.90 -2.82 0.90
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -8.19 -7.85 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 57 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 29 – 20 1.40 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 10 – 16 -3.50 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 20 – 28 0.20 FALSE
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 29 – 20 14.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Treviso vs. Munster Jan 31 Munster -6.20
2 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 Connacht -2.90
3 Scarlets vs. Leinster Jan 31 Leinster -11.00

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.31 16.52 1.80
Munster 10.09 9.90 0.20
Ulster 8.54 4.58 4.00
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 2.30 1.98 0.30
Connacht 1.63 0.70 0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -1.27 0.08 -1.30
Ospreys -2.63 -2.82 0.20
Treviso -5.62 -3.50 -2.10
Dragons -7.45 -7.85 0.40
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.35 -15.37 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 53 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Treviso Jan 10 22 – 18 -7.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Blues vs. Scarlets Jan 10 Cardiff Blues 1.40
2 Connacht vs. Munster Jan 10 Munster -3.50
3 Dragons vs. Ospreys Jan 10 Dragons 0.20
4 Leinster vs. Ulster Jan 10 Leinster 14.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the SemiFinals

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Team Ratings for the SemiFinals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 4.93 6.16 -1.20
Sharks 4.48 5.63 -1.20
Western Province 4.26 5.26 -1.00
Lions 3.67 1.46 2.20
Cheetahs -2.17 -2.96 0.80
Pumas -5.67 -6.66 1.00
Griquas -9.50 -8.90 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 19 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 07 22 – 15 8.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for the SemiFinals

Here are the predictions for the SemiFinals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 24 Bulls 5.80
2 Western Province vs. Sharks Jan 24 Western Province 4.30

 

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January 9, 2021

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

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Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

Another last minute change that I just picked up. This is a postponed game from Round 9. There are now 2 postponed games from Round 11. I can see the logic that both these teams are now free to play and are both in Italy; it is just a nightmare to keep up with all the changes. I don’t need to modify my predictions for the other Round 11 games, they are as before but I will do a forecast after the result of this game to report the result of my forecast.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.31 16.52 1.80
Munster 10.09 9.90 0.20
Ulster 8.54 4.58 4.00
Edinburgh 3.49 5.49 -2.00
Glasgow Warriors 3.35 5.66 -2.30
Scarlets 2.30 1.98 0.30
Connacht 1.63 0.70 0.90
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -1.27 0.08 -1.30
Ospreys -2.63 -2.82 0.20
Treviso -5.15 -3.50 -1.60
Dragons -7.45 -7.85 0.40
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.82 -15.37 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 52 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Zebre Jan 03 15 – 24 17.50 FALSE
2 Cardiff Blues vs. Ospreys Jan 03 3 – 17 7.90 FALSE
3 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Warriors Jan 03 10 – 7 5.60 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 03 24 – 35 23.80 FALSE
5 Scarlets vs. Dragons Jan 03 20 – 3 14.30 TRUE
6 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 15 – 10 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Treviso Jan 10 Treviso -7.50

 

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