Posts written by David Scott (1769)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

February 16, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.62 4.80 3.80
La Rochelle 7.28 2.32 5.00
Racing-Metro 92 6.67 6.21 0.50
Bordeaux-Begles 4.90 2.83 2.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.85 3.22 1.60
RC Toulonnais 3.53 3.56 -0.00
Lyon Rugby 3.18 5.61 -2.40
Montpellier 0.55 2.30 -1.80
Stade Francais Paris -1.20 -3.22 2.00
Castres Olympique -2.04 -0.47 -1.60
Brive -3.08 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -4.00 -4.48 0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -6.03 -4.13 -1.90
SU Agen -12.65 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 115 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Feb 15 26 – 23 3.70 TRUE
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 14 44 – 6 9.00 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Feb 14 48 – 17 1.70 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 14 34 – 26 10.00 TRUE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Feb 15 11 – 29 3.30 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 31 – 9 15.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brive vs. Bordeaux-Begles Feb 22 Bordeaux-Begles -2.50
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 21 Clermont Auvergne 14.80
3 La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 21 La Rochelle 12.90
4 Lyon Rugby vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 22 Lyon Rugby 0.90
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Castres Olympique Feb 20 Racing-Metro 92 13.70
6 Section Paloise vs. RC Toulonnais Feb 21 RC Toulonnais -1.20
7 SU Agen vs. Montpellier Feb 21 Montpellier -6.80

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

By

Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 7.05 7.35 -0.30
Bristol 4.00 1.28 2.70
Sale Sharks 3.52 4.96 -1.40
Wasps 2.54 5.66 -3.10
Harlequins 1.35 -1.08 2.40
Northampton Saints -1.04 -2.48 1.40
Bath -2.01 2.14 -4.10
Gloucester -3.06 -1.02 -2.00
Leicester Tigers -5.61 -6.14 0.50
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
London Irish -6.31 -8.05 1.70
Worcester Warriors -7.35 -5.71 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Feb 14 26 – 3 17.10 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Feb 13 17 – 18 -2.80 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 14 37 – 24 11.20 TRUE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Feb 13 22 – 27 11.80 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Feb 15 13 – 17 -5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Gloucester Feb 20 Bath 5.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints Feb 21 Exeter Chiefs 12.60
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Feb 21 Harlequins 2.30
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Wasps Feb 21 Wasps -3.60
5 London Irish vs. Bristol Feb 22 Bristol -5.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 21 Worcester Warriors 3.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

More weird stuff this week. A game that was previously listed as Round 12 is now listed as Round 14. Also because the game scheduled for last week was not played, my last week results refer to the previous week for which I have already published the result.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 9.09 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.08 5.66 -2.60
Connacht 1.35 0.70 0.60
Scarlets 0.71 1.98 -1.30
Cardiff Blues -0.20 0.08 -0.30
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Ospreys -1.46 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.35 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.64 -15.37 -0.30

 

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 20 – 30 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Feb 20 Leinster -20.30
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Ulster Feb 20 Glasgow Warriors 0.50
3 Scarlets vs. Treviso Feb 21 Scarlets 12.60
4 Ospreys vs. Zebre Feb 21 Ospreys 20.70
5 Connacht vs. Cardiff Blues Feb 21 Connacht 8.10
6 Edinburgh vs. Munster Feb 21 Edinburgh 0.30

 

February 9, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.18 4.80 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.78 6.21 0.60
La Rochelle 6.61 2.32 4.30
Clermont Auvergne 4.83 3.22 1.60
RC Toulonnais 4.23 3.56 0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 4.05 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.07 5.61 -2.50
Montpellier 1.40 2.30 -0.90
Stade Francais Paris -0.33 -3.22 2.90
Castres Olympique -2.90 -0.47 -2.40
Brive -3.11 -3.26 0.20
Section Paloise -3.57 -4.48 0.90
Aviron Bayonnais -6.00 -4.13 -1.90
SU Agen -12.66 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 109 matches played, 70 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 07 31 – 6 9.40 TRUE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 06 26 – 18 4.50 TRUE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 08 31 – 21 8.10 TRUE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Feb 08 26 – 22 7.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Feb 15 Aviron Bayonnais 3.70
2 Bordeaux-Begles vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 14 Bordeaux-Begles 9.00
3 Castres Olympique vs. Montpellier Feb 14 Castres Olympique 1.70
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 14 Racing-Metro 92 10.00
5 RC Toulonnais vs. La Rochelle Feb 15 RC Toulonnais 3.30
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise Feb 13 Stade Toulousain 15.60
7 SU Agen vs. Clermont Auvergne Feb 14 Clermont Auvergne -9.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

By

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.69 7.35 -0.70
Sale Sharks 4.40 4.96 -0.60
Bristol 4.15 1.28 2.90
Wasps 2.67 5.66 -3.00
Harlequins 1.21 -1.08 2.30
Northampton Saints -1.04 -2.48 1.40
Bath -2.89 2.14 -5.00
Gloucester -3.20 -1.02 -2.20
Leicester Tigers -5.46 -6.14 0.70
London Irish -5.95 -8.05 2.10
Newcastle Falcons -6.17 -10.00 3.80
Worcester Warriors -7.49 -5.71 -1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 43 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 55.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 07 15 – 28 2.00 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Feb 07 13 – 20 5.60 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 07 41 – 24 5.20 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 07 32 – 26 1.10 TRUE
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 07 9 – 15 -8.80 TRUE
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Feb 07 17 – 22 9.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Exeter Chiefs vs. London Irish Feb 14 Exeter Chiefs 17.10
2 Gloucester vs. Bristol Feb 13 Bristol -2.80
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 14 Harlequins 11.20
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 14 Northampton Saints 9.60
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bath Feb 13 Sale Sharks 11.80
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Wasps Feb 15 Wasps -5.70

 

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

By

Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.18 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.20 9.90 0.30
Ulster 9.09 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.08 5.66 -2.60
Connacht 1.35 0.70 0.60
Scarlets 1.16 1.98 -0.80
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.65 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.46 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.35 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.63 -7.85 -0.80
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.64 -15.37 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 64 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 20 – 30 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Feb 13 Edinburgh -6.90
2 Glasgow Warriors vs. Treviso Feb 14 Glasgow Warriors 14.90

 

February 2, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

By

 

 

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.18 4.80 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.92 6.21 0.70
La Rochelle 6.40 2.32 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 4.63 3.22 1.40
RC Toulonnais 4.26 3.56 0.70
Bordeaux-Begles 4.02 2.83 1.20
Lyon Rugby 3.25 5.61 -2.40
Montpellier 1.05 2.30 -1.30
Stade Francais Paris 0.07 -3.22 3.30
Castres Olympique -3.01 -0.47 -2.50
Brive -3.12 -3.26 0.10
Section Paloise -3.53 -4.48 0.90
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -12.67 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 25 – 23 -2.40 FALSE
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 30 36 – 37 6.70 FALSE
3 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 31 17 – 18 12.50 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 22 – 24 -0.10 TRUE
5 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Feb 01 29 – 9 7.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Paris Feb 07 Montpellier 9.40
2 Clermont Auvergne vs. Lyon Rugby Feb 06 Clermont Auvergne 4.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 08 Castres Olympique 8.10
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. La Rochelle Feb 08 Racing-Metro 92 7.00

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

By

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Exeter Chiefs 6.91 7.35 -0.40
Bristol 4.84 1.28 3.60
Sale Sharks 3.71 4.96 -1.30
Wasps 3.46 5.66 -2.20
Harlequins 0.41 -1.08 1.50
Northampton Saints -1.83 -2.48 0.70
Bath -2.09 2.14 -4.20
Gloucester -2.90 -1.02 -1.90
Leicester Tigers -6.11 -6.14 0.00
London Irish -6.26 -8.05 1.80
Newcastle Falcons -6.40 -10.00 3.60
Worcester Warriors -6.84 -5.71 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 37 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 30 48 – 3 8.00 TRUE
2 Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints Jan 31 26 – 31 4.50 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Jan 31 15 – 25 -4.60 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 01 31 – 22 4.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Harlequins Feb 01 17 – 49 11.50 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 31 17 – 21 -10.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Harlequins Feb 07 Bath 2.00
2 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Feb 07 Bristol 5.60
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Worcester Warriors Feb 07 Leicester Tigers 5.20
4 London Irish vs. Gloucester Feb 07 London Irish 1.10
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Exeter Chiefs Feb 07 Exeter Chiefs -8.80
6 Wasps vs. Northampton Saints Feb 07 Wasps 9.80

 

Pro14 Predictions for Postponed Matches

By

Team Ratings for Postponed Matches

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 18.17 16.52 1.70
Munster 10.15 9.90 0.20
Ulster 9.07 4.58 4.50
Edinburgh 4.04 5.49 -1.40
Glasgow Warriors 3.10 5.66 -2.60
Scarlets 1.19 1.98 -0.80
Connacht 0.84 0.70 0.10
Cheetahs -0.46 -0.46 0.00
Cardiff Blues -0.60 0.08 -0.70
Ospreys -1.43 -2.82 1.40
Treviso -5.33 -3.50 -1.80
Dragons -8.17 -7.85 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.92 -14.92 0.00
Zebre -15.65 -15.37 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Treviso vs. Munster Jan 31 16 – 18 -6.20 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Leinster Jan 31 25 – 52 -11.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Matches

Here are the predictions for Postponed Matches. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Connacht Feb 06 Connacht -2.90

 

January 25, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

By

Team Ratings for Round 15

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 8.18 4.80 3.40
Racing-Metro 92 6.78 6.21 0.60
La Rochelle 6.40 2.32 4.10
Clermont Auvergne 5.16 3.22 1.90
RC Toulonnais 4.55 3.56 1.00
Lyon Rugby 3.73 5.61 -1.90
Bordeaux-Begles 3.49 2.83 0.70
Montpellier 1.19 2.30 -1.10
Stade Francais Paris -0.38 -3.22 2.80
Castres Olympique -2.53 -0.47 -2.10
Brive -3.43 -3.26 -0.20
Section Paloise -4.02 -4.48 0.50
Aviron Bayonnais -5.90 -4.13 -1.80
SU Agen -12.67 -4.72 -7.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 65 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont Auvergne vs. Castres Olympique Jan 24 59 – 19 11.50 TRUE
2 La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 23 40 – 3 16.40 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Rugby Jan 24 16 – 21 3.70 FALSE
4 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 24 32 – 33 9.60 FALSE
5 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Francais Paris Jan 25 35 – 13 9.50 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Brive Jan 25 27 – 32 5.70 FALSE
7 SU Agen vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 24 0 – 59 -12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. SU Agen Jan 31 Aviron Bayonnais 11.70
2 Brive vs. RC Toulonnais Jan 31 RC Toulonnais -2.40
3 Clermont Auvergne vs. Bordeaux-Begles Jan 30 Clermont Auvergne 6.70
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 01 La Rochelle 4.30
5 Lyon Rugby vs. Section Paloise Jan 31 Lyon Rugby 12.50
6 Montpellier vs. Racing-Metro 92 Jan 30 Racing-Metro 92 -0.10
7 Stade Francais Paris vs. Castres Olympique Feb 01 Stade Francais Paris 7.30

 

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