Super 15 Predictions, Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
Welcome to the new Super Rugby season. This year the predictions have been slightly changed with the help of a student, Joshua Dale. The home ground advantage now is different when both teams are from the same country to when the teams are from different countries. The basic method is described on my Department home page.
The introduction of a new team causes problems. I have arbitrarily assigned a rating of -10 to the Kings. This value worked reasonably well when the Rebels were introduced but obviously there will be uncertainty about games involving the Kings until they have some history.
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 1, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
|Current Rating||Rating at Season Start||Difference|
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|1||Rebels vs. Force||Feb 15||Rebels||1.60|
|2||Brumbies vs. Reds||Feb 16||Brumbies||1.00|
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »