June 4, 2014

NRL Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page. I have made some changes to the methodology this year, including shrinking the ratings between seasons.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 8.18 12.35 -4.20
Rabbitohs 6.54 5.82 0.70
Cowboys 5.41 6.01 -0.60
Bulldogs 5.12 2.46 2.70
Sea Eagles 3.52 9.10 -5.60
Broncos 3.51 -4.69 8.20
Warriors 2.57 -0.72 3.30
Storm 1.40 7.64 -6.20
Panthers 1.34 -2.48 3.80
Knights -2.01 5.23 -7.20
Titans -2.18 1.45 -3.60
Wests Tigers -5.17 -11.26 6.10
Raiders -5.71 -8.99 3.30
Sharks -6.52 2.32 -8.80
Eels -7.34 -18.45 11.10
Dragons -10.46 -7.57 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Eels May 30 38 – 12 10.30 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Raiders May 31 26 – 12 19.50 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Storm May 31 22 – 0 5.50 TRUE
4 Warriors vs. Knights Jun 01 38 – 18 6.60 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Sea Eagles Jun 01 36 – 10 -0.00 FALSE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Jun 02 29 – 10 22.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Bulldogs Jun 06 Sea Eagles 2.90
2 Eels vs. Cowboys Jun 06 Cowboys -8.30
3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 07 Titans 1.00
4 Dragons vs. Sharks Jun 07 Dragons 0.60
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Jun 07 Rabbitohs 8.50
6 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 Knights 7.70
7 Storm vs. Roosters Jun 08 Roosters -2.30
8 Raiders vs. Broncos Jun 09 Broncos -4.70

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »