Super 18 Predictions for Round 1
Team Ratings for Round 1
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 9.84 | 9.84 | 0.00 |
| Hurricanes | 7.26 | 7.26 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | 6.80 | 6.80 | 0.00 |
| Waratahs | 4.88 | 4.88 | 0.00 |
| Brumbies | 3.15 | 3.15 | 0.00 |
| Chiefs | 2.68 | 2.68 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | -0.62 | -0.62 | 0.00 |
| Bulls | -0.74 | -0.74 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | -1.64 | -1.64 | 0.00 |
| Lions | -1.80 | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| Blues | -5.51 | -5.51 | -0.00 |
| Rebels | -6.33 | -6.33 | 0.00 |
| Force | -8.43 | -8.43 | 0.00 |
| Cheetahs | -9.27 | -9.27 | 0.00 |
| Reds | -9.81 | -9.81 | 0.00 |
| Jaguares | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Sunwolves | -10.00 | -10.00 | 0.00 |
| Kings | -13.66 | -13.66 | 0.00 |
Predictions for Round 1
Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blues vs. Highlanders | Feb 26 | Highlanders | -8.80 |
| 2 | Brumbies vs. Hurricanes | Feb 26 | Hurricanes | -0.10 |
| 3 | Cheetahs vs. Jaguares | Feb 26 | Cheetahs | 4.70 |
| 4 | Sunwolves vs. Lions | Feb 27 | Lions | -4.20 |
| 5 | Crusaders vs. Chiefs | Feb 27 | Crusaders | 10.70 |
| 6 | Waratahs vs. Reds | Feb 27 | Waratahs | 18.20 |
| 7 | Force vs. Rebels | Feb 27 | Force | 1.40 |
| 8 | Kings vs. Sharks | Feb 27 | Sharks | -8.50 |
| 9 | Stormers vs. Bulls | Feb 27 | Stormers | 3.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Out of interest – do your team ratings take into account pre season match performance or do you transfer the ratings over from the previous season?
8 years ago
No account is taken of pre-season performance. Ratings are carried over from previous seasons with shrinkage towards zero (not much actually).
New teams get -10. Kings were there before and performed poorly, so they have the worst rating. I could have given them -10.
8 years ago
I really enjoy reading your predictions and apply them to our betting club . Kind Regards Patrick
8 years ago
Many tie for your predictions from last year and this I have followed them for our betting club with great success . kind regards Patrick
8 years ago