March 23, 2016

Super 18 Predictions for Round 5

Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 8.94 9.84 -0.90
Highlanders 6.78 6.80 -0.00
Hurricanes 5.92 7.26 -1.30
Brumbies 5.46 3.15 2.30
Waratahs 3.87 4.88 -1.00
Chiefs 3.78 2.68 1.10
Stormers 1.56 -0.62 2.20
Sharks 0.11 -1.64 1.80
Lions -0.72 -1.80 1.10
Bulls -1.37 -0.74 -0.60
Blues -4.72 -5.51 0.80
Rebels -5.40 -6.33 0.90
Jaguares -8.77 -10.00 1.20
Force -9.23 -8.43 -0.80
Cheetahs -9.85 -9.27 -0.60
Reds -10.55 -9.81 -0.70
Sunwolves -12.36 -10.00 -2.40
Kings -16.67 -13.66 -3.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Force Mar 18 41 – 6 17.00 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Highlanders Mar 18 26 – 30 1.80 FALSE
3 Bulls vs. Sharks Mar 18 16 – 16 2.30 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Rebels Mar 19 9 – 35 0.20 FALSE
5 Crusaders vs. Kings Mar 19 57 – 24 29.10 TRUE
6 Reds vs. Blues Mar 19 25 – 25 -2.10 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Cheetahs Mar 19 39 – 22 12.00 TRUE
8 Stormers vs. Brumbies Mar 19 31 – 11 -2.60 FALSE
9 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 19 26 – 30 -9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Kings Mar 25 Hurricanes 26.60
2 Chiefs vs. Force Mar 26 Chiefs 17.00
3 Rebels vs. Highlanders Mar 26 Highlanders -8.20
4 Sunwolves vs. Bulls Mar 26 Bulls -7.00
5 Cheetahs vs. Brumbies Mar 26 Brumbies -11.30
6 Sharks vs. Crusaders Mar 26 Crusaders -4.80
7 Jaguares vs. Stormers Mar 26 Stormers -6.30
8 Reds vs. Waratahs Mar 27 Waratahs -10.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    john balu

    keep it coming mate

    1 year ago

    • avatar
      Brent Graham

      Keep what coming .

      He only adds up who wins .

      You wont make any money off that

      1 year ago