NRL Predictions for Round 14
Team Ratings for Round 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 10.84 | 10.29 | 0.50 |
| Broncos | 8.38 | 9.81 | -1.40 |
| Storm | 7.85 | 4.41 | 3.40 |
| Sharks | 6.27 | -1.06 | 7.30 |
| Raiders | 2.37 | -0.55 | 2.90 |
| Bulldogs | 2.12 | 1.50 | 0.60 |
| Roosters | 1.49 | 11.20 | -9.70 |
| Eels | -0.56 | -4.62 | 4.10 |
| Rabbitohs | -0.72 | -1.20 | 0.50 |
| Sea Eagles | -0.96 | 0.36 | -1.30 |
| Panthers | -0.96 | -3.06 | 2.10 |
| Dragons | -2.63 | -0.10 | -2.50 |
| Titans | -3.78 | -8.39 | 4.60 |
| Warriors | -5.55 | -7.47 | 1.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.43 | -4.06 | -3.40 |
| Knights | -15.07 | -5.41 | -9.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 99 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raiders vs. Sea Eagles | Jun 03 | 30 – 18 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Broncos | Jun 04 | 36 – 18 | -14.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Cowboys vs. Knights | Jun 04 | 46 – 16 | 28.70 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Panthers | Jun 04 | 24 – 6 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Jun 05 | 32 – 18 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Titans | Jun 05 | 28 – 29 | 3.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Sharks | Jun 06 | 18 – 20 | -1.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 14
Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Raiders | Jun 09 | Broncos | 9.00 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Jun 10 | Rabbitohs | -6.70 |
| 3 | Knights vs. Warriors | Jun 11 | Warriors | -5.50 |
| 4 | Eels vs. Titans | Jun 11 | Eels | 3.20 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Storm | Jun 11 | Storm | -3.40 |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Jun 12 | Sea Eagles | 3.00 |
| 7 | Dragons vs. Bulldogs | Jun 13 | Bulldogs | -4.80 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Cowboys | Jun 13 | Cowboys | -1.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »