NRL Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9.48 | 4.41 | 5.10 |
| Cowboys | 8.62 | 10.29 | -1.70 |
| Raiders | 6.95 | -0.55 | 7.50 |
| Sharks | 5.91 | -1.06 | 7.00 |
| Bulldogs | 2.37 | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| Broncos | 1.47 | 9.81 | -8.30 |
| Panthers | 1.19 | -3.06 | 4.20 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.20 | 0.36 | -0.20 |
| Warriors | -0.60 | -7.47 | 6.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -0.81 | -4.06 | 3.20 |
| Titans | -1.41 | -8.39 | 7.00 |
| Roosters | -1.80 | 11.20 | -13.00 |
| Eels | -2.17 | -4.62 | 2.50 |
| Dragons | -5.66 | -0.10 | -5.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -7.00 | -1.20 | -5.80 |
| Knights | -15.07 | -5.41 | -9.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 160 matches played, 100 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Broncos | Aug 04 | 8 – 12 | -4.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Eels vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 05 | 10 – 9 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Aug 06 | 14 – 28 | -14.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Aug 06 | 14 – 30 | 4.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Storm vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 06 | 15 – 14 | 22.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Titans vs. Warriors | Aug 07 | 14 – 24 | 5.30 | FALSE |
| 7 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Aug 07 | 26 – 14 | -9.40 | FALSE |
| 8 | Panthers vs. Roosters | Aug 08 | 38 – 18 | 3.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 11 | Bulldogs | 5.20 |
| 2 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 12 | Broncos | 6.60 |
| 3 | Wests Tigers vs. Titans | Aug 13 | Wests Tigers | 3.60 |
| 4 | Warriors vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 13 | Warriors | 10.40 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Aug 13 | Sharks | -8.60 |
| 6 | Knights vs. Panthers | Aug 14 | Panthers | -13.30 |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Cowboys | Aug 14 | Cowboys | -7.40 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Storm | Aug 15 | Raiders | 0.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Warriors vs Rabbitohs?
8 years ago
Added now. Not sure how I missed that one. The NRL is strange in that only the first part of the draw is published at the start of the season.
8 years ago