February 28, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 15.56 13.22 2.30
Chiefs 10.47 9.75 0.70
Highlanders 8.45 9.17 -0.70
Crusaders 8.45 8.75 -0.30
Lions 7.13 7.64 -0.50
Waratahs 5.05 5.81 -0.80
Brumbies 4.12 3.83 0.30
Stormers 2.00 1.51 0.50
Blues 1.02 -1.07 2.10
Sharks -0.10 0.42 -0.50
Bulls -0.21 0.29 -0.50
Jaguares -4.22 -4.36 0.10
Cheetahs -6.85 -7.36 0.50
Force -8.68 -9.45 0.80
Reds -9.76 -10.28 0.50
Rebels -10.26 -8.17 -2.10
Kings -19.16 -19.02 -0.10
Sunwolves -20.10 -17.76 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 9 matches played, 7 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rebels vs. Blues Feb 23 18 – 56 -3.10 TRUE
2 Highlanders vs. Chiefs Feb 24 15 – 24 2.90 FALSE
3 Reds vs. Sharks Feb 24 28 – 26 -6.70 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Hurricanes Feb 25 17 – 83 -27.00 TRUE
5 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Feb 25 17 – 13 8.90 TRUE
6 Waratahs vs. Force Feb 25 19 – 13 18.80 TRUE
7 Cheetahs vs. Lions Feb 25 25 – 28 -11.50 TRUE
8 Kings vs. Jaguares Feb 25 26 – 39 -10.70 TRUE
9 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 25 37 – 24 4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Force vs. Reds Mar 02 Force 4.60
2 Chiefs vs. Blues Mar 03 Chiefs 12.90
3 Hurricanes vs. Rebels Mar 04 Hurricanes 29.80
4 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Mar 04 Highlanders 3.50
5 Brumbies vs. Sharks Mar 04 Brumbies 8.20
6 Sunwolves vs. Kings Mar 04 Sunwolves 3.10
7 Lions vs. Waratahs Mar 04 Lions 6.10
8 Stormers vs. Jaguares Mar 04 Stormers 10.20
9 Cheetahs vs. Bulls Mar 04 Bulls -3.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar

    Please send me your predictions re Superrugby

    6 months ago

    • avatar

      Sorry, I don’t do that. Just set up a feed of StatsChat where the subject is Sports statistics. Clearly others do that because I often see a number of people have read my posts after as little as two minutes from when I post them.

      6 months ago

  • avatar

    I like your informative weekly blog ..

    6 months ago