March 2, 2021

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

My automatic updating of scores failed, sorry. Correct results now I hope.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 14.76 14.49 0.30
Blues 8.45 7.80 0.70
Hurricanes 6.47 7.13 -0.70
Chiefs 4.38 4.38 0.00
Brumbies 2.86 1.47 1.40
Highlanders 2.43 2.70 -0.30
Reds 1.94 1.59 0.30
Rebels -3.16 -3.51 0.40
Waratahs -6.83 -5.02 -1.80
Western Force -13.33 -13.05 -0.30

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Crusaders Feb 26 13 – 26 -6.30 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Rebels Feb 26 23 – 21 11.30 TRUE
3 Hurricanes vs. Blues Feb 27 16 – 31 4.80 FALSE
4 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Feb 27 61 – 10 13.00 TRUE

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Highlanders Mar 05 Chiefs 7.50
2 Waratahs vs. Western Force Mar 05 Waratahs 12.00
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes Mar 06 Crusaders 13.80
4 Rebels vs. Brumbies Mar 06 Brumbies -0.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »