April 17, 2017

NRL Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Raiders 9.43 9.94 -0.50
Storm 8.41 8.49 -0.10
Sharks 8.11 5.84 2.30
Broncos 5.26 4.36 0.90
Cowboys 2.54 6.90 -4.40
Panthers 1.56 6.08 -4.50
Dragons 0.97 -7.74 8.70
Roosters 0.50 -1.17 1.70
Bulldogs -1.74 -1.34 -0.40
Sea Eagles -1.85 -2.98 1.10
Eels -2.15 -0.81 -1.30
Rabbitohs -3.33 -1.82 -1.50
Titans -3.83 -0.98 -2.90
Warriors -5.60 -6.02 0.40
Wests Tigers -5.66 -3.89 -1.80
Knights -14.66 -16.94 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 14 24 – 9 3.20 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Roosters Apr 14 6 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Titans Apr 14 24 – 22 14.60 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 15 26 – 36 -6.10 TRUE
5 Raiders vs. Warriors Apr 15 20 – 8 20.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Cowboys Apr 15 28 – 22 1.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Sharks Apr 16 2 – 28 1.10 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Wests Tigers Apr 17 26 – 22 7.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Apr 21 Raiders 14.80
2 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Apr 21 Broncos -5.10
3 Eels vs. Panthers Apr 22 Panthers -0.20
4 Cowboys vs. Knights Apr 22 Cowboys 20.70
5 Sharks vs. Titans Apr 22 Sharks 15.40
6 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Apr 23 Bulldogs -0.40
7 Roosters vs. Dragons Apr 25 Roosters 3.00
8 Storm vs. Warriors Apr 25 Storm 18.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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