May 16, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.70 13.22 3.50
Crusaders 14.56 8.75 5.80
Highlanders 9.02 9.17 -0.10
Lions 8.64 7.64 1.00
Chiefs 8.54 9.75 -1.20
Blues 3.53 -1.07 4.60
Brumbies 1.74 3.83 -2.10
Stormers 0.63 1.51 -0.90
Sharks 0.54 0.42 0.10
Waratahs -0.91 5.81 -6.70
Jaguares -4.04 -4.36 0.30
Bulls -4.32 0.29 -4.60
Force -7.76 -9.45 1.70
Cheetahs -9.53 -7.36 -2.20
Reds -10.32 -10.28 -0.00
Kings -12.52 -19.02 6.50
Rebels -14.79 -8.17 -6.60
Sunwolves -16.80 -17.76 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 94 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Cheetahs May 12 50 – 32 16.90 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Lions May 12 6 – 13 -2.30 TRUE
3 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 13 20 – 12 -3.50 FALSE
4 Rebels vs. Reds May 13 24 – 29 -0.40 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Highlanders May 13 10 – 17 -9.70 TRUE
6 Kings vs. Sharks May 13 35 – 32 -11.30 FALSE
7 Jaguares vs. Force May 13 6 – 16 10.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders May 19 Crusaders -2.50
2 Stormers vs. Blues May 19 Stormers 1.10
3 Hurricanes vs. Cheetahs May 20 Hurricanes 30.20
4 Force vs. Highlanders May 20 Highlanders -12.80
5 Sunwolves vs. Sharks May 20 Sharks -13.30
6 Kings vs. Brumbies May 20 Brumbies -10.30
7 Lions vs. Bulls May 20 Lions 16.50
8 Waratahs vs. Rebels May 21 Waratahs 17.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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