July 29, 2015

NRL Predictions for Round 21

Team Ratings for Round 21

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Roosters 10.93 9.09 1.80
Broncos 9.29 4.03 5.30
Cowboys 8.18 9.52 -1.30
Rabbitohs 6.42 13.06 -6.60
Storm 5.12 4.36 0.80
Bulldogs 1.11 0.21 0.90
Sea Eagles 0.49 2.68 -2.20
Warriors -0.22 3.07 -3.30
Raiders -1.16 -7.09 5.90
Dragons -1.80 -1.74 -0.10
Sharks -1.93 -10.76 8.80
Panthers -3.77 3.69 -7.50
Eels -5.78 -7.19 1.40
Knights -6.37 -0.28 -6.10
Wests Tigers -8.78 -13.13 4.30
Titans -10.39 -8.20 -2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 144 matches played, 84 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.3%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Titans Jul 24 34 – 0 20.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Roosters Jul 24 8 – 33 -15.30 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Jul 25 52 – 6 11.10 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Dragons Jul 25 22 – 4 8.60 TRUE
5 Warriors vs. Sea Eagles Jul 25 12 – 32 7.00 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 26 16 – 18 7.40 FALSE
7 Panthers vs. Raiders Jul 26 24 – 34 2.10 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Eels Jul 27 46 – 4 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 21

Here are the predictions for Round 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Jul 31 Roosters 12.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jul 31 Storm -10.90
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Aug 01 Warriors 5.70
4 Cowboys vs. Raiders Aug 01 Cowboys 12.30
5 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos Aug 01 Broncos -5.80
6 Dragons vs. Knights Aug 02 Dragons 7.60
7 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Aug 02 Rabbitohs 13.20
8 Titans vs. Eels Aug 03 Eels -1.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Kenneth Mant Nath

    David, what is the Prediction for Round 21, Manly vs Brisbane, Sat. (1/8) 7.30 pm? – reg.

    9 years ago

    • avatar

      Updated now. Sorry for the missed game. I entered the game details game by game because the fixtures released at the beginning of the season only went till round 20. I need to enter all the remaining games now but am overseas until next week.

      9 years ago