NRL Predictions, Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
Here are the team ratings prior to Round 10, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11.44 | 4.63 | 6.80 |
| Broncos | 6.50 | 5.57 | 0.90 |
| Sea Eagles | 3.88 | 9.83 | -5.90 |
| Bulldogs | 3.60 | -1.86 | 5.50 |
| Cowboys | 3.08 | -1.32 | 4.40 |
| Warriors | 2.18 | 5.28 | -3.10 |
| Wests Tigers | 1.25 | 4.52 | -3.30 |
| Dragons | 1.11 | 4.36 | -3.20 |
| Knights | 0.19 | 0.77 | -0.60 |
| Rabbitohs | -0.31 | 0.04 | -0.40 |
| Sharks | -1.18 | -7.97 | 6.80 |
| Roosters | -3.11 | 0.25 | -3.40 |
| Raiders | -5.84 | -8.40 | 2.60 |
| Panthers | -8.20 | -3.40 | -4.80 |
| Titans | -8.41 | -11.80 | 3.40 |
| Eels | -9.92 | -4.23 | -5.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.33%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Bulldogs | May 04 | 12 – 46 | -4.26 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cowboys vs. Dragons | May 04 | 30 – 6 | 3.13 | TRUE |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Broncos | May 05 | 30 – 20 | -1.69 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Wests Tigers | May 05 | 14 – 15 | -5.95 | TRUE |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Storm | May 05 | 10 – 44 | -11.55 | TRUE |
| 6 | Sea Eagles vs. Raiders | May 06 | 18 – 12 | 15.79 | TRUE |
| 7 | Roosters vs. Knights | May 06 | 24 – 6 | -2.00 | FALSE |
| 8 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | May 07 | 34 – 28 | 5.25 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Sea Eagles | May 11 | Broncos | 7.10 |
| 2 | Bulldogs vs. Titans | May 11 | Bulldogs | 16.50 |
| 3 | Warriors vs. Roosters | May 12 | Warriors | 9.80 |
| 4 | Knights vs. Cowboys | May 12 | Knights | 1.60 |
| 5 | Raiders vs. Eels | May 13 | Raiders | 8.60 |
| 6 | Sharks vs. Storm | May 13 | Storm | -8.10 |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Dragons | May 14 | Dragons | -4.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I spent a number of recent years predicting the NRL results for a sports website just for a laugh, but basically 60% was the benchmark I went by. If you could crack it you’d had a very good year. If you were close to it you were doing OK. It’s remarkable how little there is between teams in terms of talent due to the salary cap, so it mainly comes down to coaching, form and confidence. And while coaching remains consistent, the other two things can change massively from week to week. Most sides struggle to win back to back games, and the bounce back factor from a loss is significant.
12 years ago
I think you are right about the NRL. It seems harder to predict than Super Rugby. This year it has been really difficult I think. Early on, one of the Sydney Morning Herald’s tipsters was running at around 30% correct. I was struggling to get over 50% using the same method as for Super Rugby. I think the salary cap is pretty important in the evenness of the teams, but possibly also there is the nature of the rugby union where organisation is extremely important when it comes to set pieces, the breakdown and defence.
12 years ago
Another factor is that each team basically only has players from it’s own country which limits team’s ability to build competitive sides. Especially Aussie who don’t have much depth. In SA the Super Rugby teams also play in the Currie Cup unlike in NZ where teams are broken down into ITM Cup teams. This all combines to create a much greater range in ability between the teams and therefore more predictability with results.
12 years ago