July 17, 2012

Super 15 Predictions, Week 22

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Team Ratings for Week 22

Here are the team ratings prior to Week 22, along with the ratings at the start of the season. I have created a brief description of the method I use for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department home page to see this.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 9.02 10.46 -1.40
Sharks 4.77 0.87 3.90
Stormers 4.55 6.59 -2.00
Hurricanes 3.40 -1.90 5.30
Bulls 3.32 4.16 -0.80
Chiefs 3.09 -1.17 4.30
Reds 1.55 5.03 -3.50
Brumbies -0.89 -6.66 5.80
Blues -2.77 2.87 -5.60
Waratahs -3.13 4.98 -8.10
Highlanders -3.17 -5.69 2.50
Cheetahs -3.99 -1.46 -2.50
Lions -8.75 -10.82 2.10
Force -9.18 -4.95 -4.20
Rebels -11.11 -15.64 4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 86 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.

Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jul 13 28 – 25 5.20 TRUE
2 Brumbies vs. Blues Jul 14 16 – 30 10.30 FALSE
3 Crusaders vs. Force Jul 14 38 – 24 24.40 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Waratahs Jul 14 32 – 16 7.90 TRUE
5 Stormers vs. Rebels Jul 14 26 – 21 23.10 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 34 – 15 12.20 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Lions Jul 14 37 – 20 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 22

Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Bulls Jul 21 Crusaders 10.20
2 Reds vs. Sharks Jul 21 Reds 1.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »