November 3, 2012

Can we have some CPI adjustment?

Once again, NZ homes are at record nominal asking prices.

The real estate industry doesn’t make it easy to do inflation adjustment, but according to this, the average asking price in May last year of $429k  was 2% above the previous month and ‘just topped’ the October 2007 level that was when Realestate.co.nz started publishing the statistic. That means the October 2007 national average asking price was between $420k and $429k.

Suppose you bought a house in October 2007 for $420k and sold it now for the national average asking price of  $445,529.  Those 2007 dollars are worth about $479k  in today’s money, so you would have lost 8%, or about $34,000 in 2012 dollars.   That’s before taking into account maintenance, insurance, interest, and transaction costs.  The conclusion is about the same if you compare to an index of average wages: all these are helpfully provided by the Reserve Bank’s inflation calculator.

The comparison for Auckland may be more favorable — I can’t find what the 2007 average asking price was, but if it was below $535000, then we are at a new peak (or the top of a new bubble).

In May last year, Stuff had a good article on house prices and inflation, and even an infographic that told you more than ‘up’ or ‘down’, but that seems to have been an exception.

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Thomas Lumley (@tslumley) is Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Auckland. His research interests include semiparametric models, survey sampling, statistical computing, foundations of statistics, and whatever methodological problems his medical collaborators come up with. He also blogs at Biased and Inefficient See all posts by Thomas Lumley »

Comments

  • avatar
    Jason Felix

    If you’re happy with medians, REINZ provides easy access to region (and zone) stats over the past decade or so, here: apps.reinz.co.nz/reportingapp/?RFOPTION=Report&RFCODE=R100

    e.g., for Auckland(All) Sept 2012-Sept 2003
    $515,000 $505,500 $475,000 $450,000 $455,000 $420,000 $441,500 $397,750 $379,000 $336,000 $319,000

    Not that this is my bag, but it looks like an bubble that’s stalled for four years and has cheerily resumed inflating to me.

    11 years ago

    • avatar
      Thomas Lumley

      I didn’t want median sale price because the story is about average asking price.

      Thanks for the link — I’m sure it will be useful.

      11 years ago

  • avatar
    Nick Iversen

    My place is for sale. I’m asking $2.4 trillion for it.

    11 years ago